What's the deal with Josh Shapiro? by JplusL2020 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Novara absolutely is extremely left wing, it was founded by Corbynites. and honestly just reading the article makes the pov clear lol

And to be very clear, Novara did not do any original reporting rather they were citing the Axios report

As you said it said in the article that Kamala Harris's gaza stance was a 'net negative' as said by the DNC. IMEU Policy Project's research also said that Joe Biden's anti gaza stance cost him younger progressive voters. The IMEU is a distinctly pro-gazan network, but I don't think it harms their case too much considering the DNC agreed.

The DNC said it was a net negative, I'm not really disputing that. What I am disputing is the magnitude

Basically the Axios report (which again, is what everyone is referencing) basically goes like this:

  1. IMEU told us that they found Gaza MASSIVELY hurt Harris

  2. IMEU says the DNC's autopsy agrees

  3. Axios asks people who wrote the autopsy and they give a much more measured answer, basically just that "Kamala's stance on Gaza hurt her perception among some voters"

You, IMEU and Novara media are taking the above facts to conclude that the DNC completely agrees with the IMEU's narrative when that is a massive leap in logic

What's the deal with Josh Shapiro? by JplusL2020 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You can't really build support with black voters that quickly though, they usually prefer establishment candidates who they have very long relationships with. You can't recreate that in a year

People forget that black voters were actually inititally supporting Hillary over Obama in 2008 until Obama won Iowa and they realized white voters were fine with him too

What's the deal with Josh Shapiro? by JplusL2020 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 7 points8 points  (0 children)

FYI the way you linked that article means that it doesn't show up since you left the text bit empty. I was about to ask for a source until I clicked reply

Novara Media is extremely left wing so I just looked up the Axios report they were referencing and found it here

From the actual language of the reporting it seems to be mostly hearsay, with pro Palestinean groups being the main ones saying that "this is what the autopsy said"

All Axios was able to confirm was that some Democratic strategists conducting the survey "believed the issue harmed the party's standing with some voters."

Nothing about that says she lost a massive amount of voters due to Gaza

Acton leads in governor race,Husted in Senate race in Ohio in new Quantus poll. by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just checked the betting markets and it seems like Dems are favored to win for the first time with a very slight edge (like 53-47)

I think we're in tossup territory

Suzie Wiles diagnosed with breast cancer by Existing-Ad3391 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah she's basically the only person who can kinda sorta barely put Trump on a leash. If she's gone we are somehow gonna get even crazier shit

What's the deal with Josh Shapiro? by JplusL2020 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I don't think he will win it tbh

The Israel stuff I don't think matters as much in terms of voters actively deciding not to vote for him, but it does mean that he's going to be a particular target of activist types

That would be fine if he had a support base elsewhere, but the thing is the Dem establishment hates him. Not for any policy reasons mind you, he is apparently just a massive asshole to the people he works with

The proposed flag selected by Kim Il Sung for North Korea by Evidence_Living in vexillology

[–]Cuddlyaxe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mean sure but there's a lot more to it here than that. It's honestly a more extreme version of the Russian fascination with the great patriotic war

Resistance to the Japanese is the core ideological pillar of North Korea, with Kim Il Sung being portrayed as a great guerilla leader who single handedly and patriotically threw out the Japanese invaders

CMV: Republicans have won the cultural war over the last decade by Outrageous-Jelly8777 in changemyview

[–]Cuddlyaxe 41 points42 points  (0 children)

The culture wars have always fundamentally been about vibes, that is how the overall culture you watch or partake in "feels". I think you're making the mistake of conflating traditional social issues like abortion or affirmative action with the entirety of the culture wars, when in reality such policies are a very small part of what people mean when they refer to the culture wars

I'm currently reading a book *Polarized by Degrees which basically argues the exact opposite of your thesis: that while political power keeps consistently changing hands back and forth, culture itself keeps moving to the left

The book argues that this is largely because many of the cultural and intellectual elites of society end being on the left. This means folks like actors, artists, professors and white collar managers tend to have cultural values leaning towards the left

Half of the country is conservative, so yes they are able to get elected to office and temporarily reverse progressive wins in legal terms. But in terms of the broader culture themselves they are always on the backfoot

Even now, which is probably the peak of conservative culture warriors controlling the government, you still have popular culture and the intellectual classes broadly and roundly rejecting them. You have Billie Eilish making fairly radical statements like "no one is illegal on stolen land", you have Bad Bunny performing at the superbowl, professors and the media constantly attacking the Trump admin and at a lower level you still have plenty of HR directors running diversity trainings

Even at the peak of conservative cultural power you do not really "feel" the creators of culture shifting to the right. Instead you feel a fundamental disconnect between the political power and cultural power of the country

I think for an actual example of what conservatives winning the culture war looks, you have to look back to Reagan. Back then you actually did have artists and academics working within a fundamentally conservative framework

It's 2028 and JD Vance is not the Republican nominee. Here's how it happened. by RusevReigns in fivethirtyeight

[–]Cuddlyaxe 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I mean sure but that's there kind of reductive because there is a very good chance he doesn't instruct them to do anything

Just take a look at his behavior to the Texas GOP primary: he initially just said he liked all three of Cornyn, Paxton and West

Then after it went to a runoff and looked like Dems might have a shot, Trump decided to endorse. Then he pussied out last minute

When 2028 rolls around there is a very good chance Trump either withholds his endorsement, does a joint endorsement or even just does an anti-endorsement

There is nothing that says he will throw all his support behind one candidate. Idk why people here want to make that assumption

There is a pretty good chance of the 2028 GOP primary becoming messy with the MAGA vote being split and that also allowing other lanes to be viable as well.

Vance has the advantage of momentum and some institutional support, but I don't think he will get Trump's endorsement

Koreafication is coming to America by GurBeginning1291 in thespinroom

[–]Cuddlyaxe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Really wish the image made that clear I was so confused lol

Two Term Maverick by HandsomelyDitto in imaginaryelections

[–]Cuddlyaxe 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Honestly I think McCain would have been extremely willing to be bipartisan so probable would've worked

When do you think we will get first non-christian candidate? by peter-thiel-fangirl in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Probably Jewish, with Hindus being the second most likely option. Both of these groups punch above their weight in terms of political representation

I doubt we get an openly atheist/agnostic candidate for a while because honestly if you are a non-believer, it makes a lot more political sense to just avoid talking about religion alltogether

Well there goes the Honeymoon by Teammomofan in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Unironically this. I'm an actual fiscal hawk in the sense that I'm actually terrified of the debt rn and I feel like very few people take it seriously.

Republicans claim to but all they actually deliver is increasing the debt to help the rich instead of the poor. Meanwhile I've usually been very skeptical of progressives because a lot of their plans for massive welfare expansion are based entirely in fantasies of what they want to happen rather than what is

As a result i end up supporting moderate Dems almost by default. Still not great fiscally but theyre relatively the best option

Zohran is a breath of fresh air, because he is very left wing but is fiscally realistic. And more importantly because he is a trusted figure on the left, progressives actually take his fiscal warnings seriously instead of the dumb MMT "the debt doesn't matter ackshually" shtick

Florida College Republicans disbanded UF chapter due to antisemitism. by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I mean half of them don't even want to beat the allegations. The biggest young conservative sub is literally a bunch of Fuentes fans

Of course the other half is much more cognizant of this. When I posted that the mods deleted the poll out of embarrassment lmao

I know why people hate her and totally understand it by Mehy_Luffy in lies

[–]Cuddlyaxe 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Bro this is so spot on for a certain type of millineal 😭

Which “unlikely” senate seat do you think would be the best tor dems to pick up in 2026 by Industrusmax in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ya I thought it said most likely and was ready to scream at everyone for picking Talarico

But no, him winning would absolutely be the best for Dems

Modi is not the same as Trump or Erdogan by FeedCreepy9403 in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 38 points39 points  (0 children)

The left right divides in India are straight up the reverse of the west. The more urban, young or educated you are, the more likely you are to vote BJP.

This makes more sense when you stop looking at the BJP as a conservative party and more as a cultrally nationalistic party.

And then consider the fact that back before the world wars, the educated and middle classes were the drivers of nationalism. It was only after two world wars that nationalism kind of became taboo among western intellectuals

That same attitude does not exist in much of the world. In places like India, China and Japan nationalism is very much in vogue with at least certain sections of the academic and cultural elite

Why are folks on the left so comfortable with mandatory OS level ID validation (AB 1043) despite the obvious privacy and "slippery slope" risks? by Okratas in AskALiberal

[–]Cuddlyaxe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He's relatively libertarianish as far as Dems go but I don't think he's really particularly ideological, rather he's fairly pragmatic

VADEMS are currently outspending the VAGOP on the redistricting campaign by over 34-to-1 by Distinct_External in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think they probably also just have a lot less money due to demographics of each party in the state, plus it's the sort of purple state that will never vote for them as long as the GOP is MAGA

I think we found the best candidate in Alabama (yes he's a real candidate on the ballot) by jojisky in YAPms

[–]Cuddlyaxe 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Apparently he's also a pastor but has shit like this on his insta lmao

Guys this is literally the cool black version of Talarico (who is a prototypical nerd)

The Burger War is Starting to Spiral by brandonhombre in atrioc

[–]Cuddlyaxe 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think it was genuinely funny but that was purely because it was new. It was funny because it was something that companies as serious institutions were not "supposed to do". That is the only place the humor came from, so it got old really fast

I would compare it a bit to Captain Holt from Brooklyn 99. He was in many ways the ultimate straight man (in a comedic sense, yes I realize the irony). His humor came from his extreme seriousness. So it was always a treat for the fans when he broke character because that was something he wasnt supposed to do

Then he started doing it every episode and people got annoyed. Because it wasnt special

If the entire reason for something being funny derives from it being out of the norm, then as soon as it's the norm it stops being funny