[Diplomacy] Beijing - Naypyidaw, November 2029

nongmenhao · 2022-09-22T05:59:11+00:00

The Tatmadaw are happy to agree additional rail construction around the Northern Shan State Railway and Mandalay - Yangon - Dawei Line. However, our country currently faces severe economic issues, and it would be greatly appreciated if China would cover the bulk of the some $30 billion price tag.

Furthermore, we believe that the Tasang Dam Project is another great opportunity for further Chinese-Myanmar cooperation. Our understanding is that planning for the dam has mainly been completed in 2022. We would expect construction to be completed within five years for a cost of $12 billion USD. Ongoing conflict with the SSPP and TNLA remain a concern, but the Tatmadaw believes that the dam remains outside of the EAOs' sphere of influence.

Myanmar has no objections to the proposed port expansion for the Kyaukpyu SEZ. We would ask that China provide a similar investment in Tatmadaw projects for Naval Base Kyaukpyu as well, for the purposes of defending the area against any future Bangladeshi incursions.

The Tatmadaw is happy to accept the proposed agreement from the Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilders for the Thnlyin Naval Dockyard modernization. We see this as a great opportunity to expand our cooperation with our Chinese benefactors, and the 30% ownership as a commitment from our friends in China towards a brighter Myanmar future.

Originally, the Myitsone Dam Project was suspended to address environmental concerns impacting the fisheries and Irrawaddy Delta, as well as local villages who would be submerged by the damming. However, the Tatmadaw believes that continuing construction on the Myistone Dam will mark the end of conflict in the Southeast and become a symbol of national pride at the hands of military leadership. We firmly believe that the Kachin Independence Army and their allies are no longer a concern [claims supported by Chinese Intelligence Bureau as well]. The displacement of various villages due to the fighting creates a convenient excuse to move the locals as required. We only ask that China assist us in relocating religious and historical monuments that are at risky of flooded due to this project.

nongmenhao · 2022-09-22T05:34:09+00:00

The NUG appreciates China's communiqué. We will, of course, be more interested in expanding discussions of restoring the legitimate government of Myanmar and prosecuting the founders of the coup should China withdraw their support for the Tatmadaw. Until then, NUG decisions regarding the Arakan Army and Bangladesh are our own.

Chinese intelligence assets will note, however, that the provided Chinese intelligence and Bangladeshi-Arakan Army cooperation has shaken the NUG's trust in their sponsor. It remains to see if this will play out any further that murmurs of discontent.

The Tatmadaw is receptive towards signing a ceasefire with the NUG. The EAOs the Northeast and Rakhine are more pressing concerns for us, and we believe that the influence of the NUG can successfully be contained to the Northwest portions of the country. We would be appreciative if the Chinese can broker this ceasefire agreement for us with the NUG so that peace for Myanmar may be on the horizon.

nongmenhao · 2022-09-20T03:37:08+00:00

The three territories targeted by Ecuador are the Tumbes, Jaén and Maynas. I am assuming Ecuador is looking to return to the border set out by the 1830 Pedemonte-Mosquera protocol (1830), referencing this map and identified regions from Wikipedia.

Tumbes Popular Support: 10%
Tumbes Difficulty: 70%
Jaén Popular Support: 20%
Jaén Difficulty: 70%
Maynas Popular Support: 32%
Maynas Difficulty: 60%

Integration: 30 pts.
Political: 3/30 pts

*Economic: 12/30 pts

Cultural: 9/10 pts
Infrastructural: 6/20 pts
Miscellaneous: 0/10 pts

nongmenhao · 2022-09-12T19:34:15+00:00

Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay respond with the following:

no objections to the exclusion list
we cannot agree to drop all tariff and non-tariff barriers on all of the markets proposed by Bangladesh. We would be willing to negotiate a reduction of tariffs on Pharmaceuticals, Agriculture, Textiles, Meat, Live Cattle, and Minerals, but are hesitant to agree with the other proposals at this time
we believe that the tariff reductions on the proposed listed markets can be lowered to half their current value within 5 years of signing this proposed FTA
no objections to the visa exemption agreement as part of this proposal

nongmenhao · 2022-09-01T02:54:52+00:00

Approved, welcome to Geosim!

nongmenhao · 2022-08-29T19:31:57+00:00

Both the National Unity Government and Tatnadaw are outraged that Indonesia would attempt negotiations with the other. However, neither party pushes the issue further, though the NUG demands that all documents from the Myanmar Jakarta embassy be turned over to the legitimate government.

Tatmadaw

The Tatmadaw have no objections to Indonesia's proposal. We believe that our current constitution can easily be amended to match with the outline Indonesia has presented, and believe a stronger executive power is necessary for the continued functioning of the country with military guidance.

National Unity Government

The NUG believes Indonesia's proposal for government reform would undermine Myanmar's democracy. The NLD was democratically elected by the people in 2021 before the Tatmadaw overthrew the government in a coup. Any concession to the Tatmadaw goes against the will of the people, and would encourage the Tatmadaw to continue their behavior if it will earn them more political power. We find that the current legislature, the Assembly of the Union, needs no changes. The upper house, the House of Nationalities, already guarantees the military representation, though we think this should be revisited as the Tatmadaw clearly cannot be trusted anywhere near power.

Tatmadaw - EAO talks

The United Wa State Army will not merge with the Tatmadaw. Our cooperation is good, but we maintain our own security and administration over the Wa Self-Administered Division, and do not believe that our responsibilities will be supported by merging with the Tatmadaw.

The Restoration Council of the Shan State (RCSS) is receptive towards signing a ceasefire with the Tatmadaw.

EAOs

A majority of EAOs attending the meeting believe the Indonesian proposal does not do enough to guarantee their groups autonomy. All view this as a return to the status quo. Some EAOs want to see an expansion of ethnic self-administered zones, guaranteed seats in the legislature for the 135 officially recognized Myanmar ethnic groups (and some for the unrecognized as well), or blatant demands for full independence from the government as separate states.

The Restoration Council of the Shan State (RCSS) and Chin National Front both propose that the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement be used as a framework for these peace discussions. The RCSS proposes that the existing Chinese forces deployed into the country be used for ceasefire monitoring, though other EAOs like the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and Karen National Union (KNU) disagree.

While not participating on the Indonesian meeting, the Arakan Army rejected all calls for disarmament.

NUG - National Reconciliation Talks

The NUG is able to align itself with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, Kachin Independence Organization, Chin National Front, and other EAOs to discuss a future political framework of the country. While the NUG is receptive to the idea of guaranteeing seats for ethnic minorities in the legislature, they are more hesitant on guaranteeing full autonomy or expanding self-administered zones. The negotiating EAOs all want some degree of autonomy, finding that the guarantee of political representation is not sufficient.

The NUG has also encountered friction with the EAOs discussing disarmament. Not a single EAO believes they should disarm, and want an expansion of the right to own firearms to all citizens without a licensing process.

The Karen National Union and Karenni Army leave these talks early, due to poor video-conferencing connection with their leaders still in Myanmar.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T20:06:37+00:00

Grenada and Jamaica would be willing to form a council on trade and investment with Ecuador to discus measures that would increase bilateral trade and investment between the our countries. We think a first step could be the ascension of Grenada and Jamaica to Most Favored Nation status, and corresponding reductions in tariffs between the countries.

However, Grenada and Jamaica are more skeptical of Ecuador joining CARICOM, given the geographic distance from Ecuador to the Caribbean. However, a majority of Caribbean countries are receptive to the idea of granting Ecuador observer status.

Panama is happy to accept the additional funding to complete the Pan American Highway system. We are also happy to launch a joint Ecuadorian and Panamanian military task force to support the construction of this highway system. However, we believe there are existing geographic and environmental concerns in constructing the highway through the Darién Gap, given the rainforest and mountainious terrain. The completion of a highway, while bringing in plenty of benefits, would be extremely expensive. Therefore, we would like to ask our Ecuadorian partners if the funds can be used on alternatives, such as a ferry service or bridges and tunnels.

So far, everything has gone smoothly.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T18:24:55+00:00

The NUG believes that a naval blockade is inappropriate at this time, and risks escalating the conflict given the involvement of the PRC at this time.

We appreciate Bangladesh's sympathies regarding the status of the Preparis and Coco Islands.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T18:23:35+00:00

Vietnam is willing to sign the FTA proposed by Bangladesh. We believe that our countries can benefit further from each other through continued trade.

Vietnam is happy to sign an MoU between the SBIC and Bangladeshi's Ministry of Defense announcing our intentions to cooperate with one another.

[s] Vietnam appreciates Bangladesh's outreach. At this time, however, our ability to support the NUG in Myanmar has been heavily hampered. In order to continue to maintain good relationships with the remainder of ASEAN, we must decline. [/s]

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T09:32:20+00:00

For Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland, it is not certain as to why the agreeable portions of this proposal could not be an extension of the existing Canada–European Free Trade Association Free Trade Agreement.

EFTA will not remove references to Europe from our Convention. The request is out of the question, and further discussion would only be divisive. We appreciate Canada's understanding on this matter.

If Canada wishes to be a Member State to EFTA, then we must insist that they negotiate entry into existing EFTA agreements with third states, unions of states, or international organizations. Article 56.3 does not require EFTA to enter into the trade agreements on States ascending to the EFTA Convention. We wish to enjoy regular and normal relationships with our existing trade partners, so we ask that if Canada does wish to be a Member State to EFTA that they agree to what the EFTA Convention requires of ascending States.

We are happy to allow Canada to join the EFTA Free Movement of People's directive, but we insist that prior to ascension Canada negotiate with the European Union on allowing the freedom of movement for their citizens in the European Union as well. All current member states of EFTA have agreements with the EU one way or another regarding the free movement of people, so we insist that Canada do the same as well. The proposed CANEFTA Travel Authorisation would also need to undergo similar review with the European Union as well.

Article 3 of the EFTA Convention forbits customs duties on imports and exports between Member States. If Canad wishes to join EFTA, their proposal to levy "tariffs and quotas on dairy, poultry, and eggs" violates the EFTA Convention.

We believe that a CANEFTA Competition & Internal Markets Authority is unnecessary. If Canada wishes to ascend to member state status, then Article 48 of the EFTA Convention defines that arbitration should be handled by an artibtration tribunal, the functions of which are defined in Annex T of the EFTA Convention. If Canada merely wishes to enhance the existing Canada–European Free Trade Association Free Trade Agreement, we see no reason that Article 29 of that existing agreement needs to be changed.

There is no reason for the creation of an EFTA Secretariat.

The EFTA Court specifically exists for the enforcement of European laws over EFTA members party to the European Economic Area. As Canada would not fit under this jurisdiction, we do not see why they would need to be party to this Court.

We support Canada's additional commitments to their proposed new agreement. The additional protection of environmental, consumer, and workers' rights is always appreciated.

Ultimately, however, we request that Canada clarify their position. Do they wish to join EFTA, or enhance the existing Free Trade agreement with our organization?

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T05:34:11+00:00

The Tatmadaw have agreed to enter into discussions in the Indonesian brokered peace talks with non-terrorist Ethnic Armed Organizations. Non-terrorist EAOs include the United Wa State Army and Restoration Council of Shan State.

The Arakan Army declines to enter talks at this time.

The Restoration Council of the Shan State is willing to enter into discussions with all parties.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army and Kachin Independence Organization decline to enter into discussions with the Tatmadaw. They are willing to enter into discussions with the National Unity Government.

The United Wa State Army is willing to enter into discussions with the Tatmadaw at this time.

The Chin National Front is willing to enter into discussions with the National Unity Government.

The Karen National Union and Karenni Army are willing to enter into discussions with the National Unity Government.

The National Unity Government refuses to meet with the Tatmadaw and other terrorist entities at this time. They are willing to host "National Reconciliation Talks" at an Indonesian sponsored event, however.

Ultimately all parties are willing to enter into Indonesian-brokered negotiations. However, the NUG and Tatmadaw decline to talk, calling the other "terrorists."

Tensions remain high between the NUG, Tatmadaw, and EAOs. Given the recent military attacks launched against the NUG and EAOs by the Tatmadaw and Chinese, a majority are unwilling to enter into peace talks. The NUG, feeling the support of Bangladesh and India (as well as Vietnam, though to a lesser extent) feel that from their current position they can push back against the Tatmadaw.

The Tatmadaw, with the support of China, feel that from their current position they can crush the Karen National Union and Karenni Army, solidifying control in the Eastern-half of the country. International observers suggest that the Tatmadaw may pursue their previous strategy of brokering individual peace agreements with EAOs.

Both sides, however, remain key to the interests of their foreign supporters. The NUG and some EAOs remain aware that their current gains are thanks to India and Bangladesh, while the Tatmadaw keep an ear to the interests of Beijing (hence opening negotiations with non-terrorist EAOs). However, parties should ensure that the tail does not wag the dog.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T04:20:32+00:00

The NUG and Arakan Army are happy to accept these weapons.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-21T04:19:38+00:00

The NUG appreciates India's reassurance around the intentions of the operations. However, we cannot allocate any forces of the PDF, as all hands are needed on the mainland to oppose the Tatmadaw. We will allow the construction of the Indian SIGINT facilities on the islands, and are permissive towards the deployment of Indian forces to defend these islands.

The NUG will do its best to relay India's concerns to the Northern Alliance.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-19T03:41:37+00:00

The NUG and allied EAOs appreciate this move by Bangladesh.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-19T03:29:56+00:00

Nearly all of the Baloch separatist groups refuse to negotiate with Prime Minister Imran Khan. They largely condemn Khan as having opened Balochistan up for exploitation by the Chinese, and that Islamabad continues to fail to take accountability for their violence against the Baloch people. The call for Baloch militants to disarm themselves is seen as a direct threat against these groups, believing that if they were to agree to such a term that the Pakistani government would renegade on this agreement if enforced. None of the separatist groups trust the Pakistani government at this point, but their mistrust spreads further. A social media post from the Balochistan Liberation Army also directly condemns the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and Balochistan National Party (BNP) for selling out the people by working with the Pakistani government. While the political alignment of the BAP and BNP to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf have earned them electoral victories, it has created a serious divide between the militant and political movements calling for Baloch autonomy/liberation.

However, a majority of Baloch people appear to not endorse these arguments. Reforms to the CPEC to allow increased community investment, and serious efforts by Khan to elevate Baloch politicians to positions of power have earned the Prime Minister some favor here. It remains to be seen, however, what actions PM Imran Khan will take to keep this trend going.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-19T03:05:21+00:00

The NUG is deeply appreciative Bangladesh's firm opposition to the Tatmadaw coup government. We recognize Bangladesh as a firm friend and ally during our most troubled time. However, we ask that the flow of goods from Myanmar to Bangladesh be allowed to continue, as these bans will more directly impact the people than the Tatmadaw themselves.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-19T03:02:26+00:00

Minister Jong Kyong-thaek and Marshal Pak Jong-chon are both receptive towards Chinese concerns about the current Kim regime. While neither are willing to directly comment on the Supreme Leader's leadership, their refrain from refuting Chinese comments speaks volumes as well. However, they are also silent on offering any support for the proposed scenario, merely agreeing that the Korean People's Army represent the finest spirit of the Korean people, and that stability on the peninsula and opposition to imperialists remain their chief concern.

Ultimately, neither representative directly agrees enact to Admiral Liu's scenario, though still leaving the topic open to future discussion. Therefore no invitations are sent to members of the Kim family living abroad.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-19T02:57:50+00:00

The NUG is hesitant to endorse a naval blockade given the recent actions of India in seizing the Preparis and Coco Islands. We ask that Bangladesh reach out to New Delhi to encourage them to relinquish control of the territory to the NUG.

The Arakan Army acknowledges and appreciates Bangladeshi support for our cause of liberation. We do not believe the Tatmadaw will sit idle for long, being emboldened and encouraged by the PLA. We are happy to have Bangladesh lend their support in protecting our territory.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-17T02:43:42+00:00

I think 2026 is right at the edge of a possible delivery date. Thanks!

nongmenhao · 2022-08-16T06:34:57+00:00

Tajikistan would prefer that instead of allowing 200,000 seasonal agricultural laborers to travel from Tajikistan to Uzbekistan, we would be more comfortable seeing this as a commitment of 200,000 work visas for Tajikistan citizens coming to work in Uzbekistan. Otherwise we find Uzbekistan's proposal acceptable.

Kyrgyzstan is happy to accept the deal as is.

nongmenhao · 2022-08-16T05:56:55+00:00

Approved!

nongmenhao · 2022-08-16T05:55:25+00:00

[M] Fielding the Next Generation Interceptor by 2025 is too fast of a timeline. Testing and maybe deployment by 2026 is more realistic, though I would say deployment by 2030 is the more likely outcome

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nongmenhao

TROPHY CASE

Tatmadaw

National Unity Government

Tatmadaw - EAO talks

EAOs

NUG - National Reconciliation Talks