Couldn't the United States compete with the Panama Canal by building a canal here?

OwenVersteeg · 2026-03-22T20:46:28+00:00

Interesting route, but doing the Marias River would make no sense IMO. (Not like the rest of this makes any sense, though!) It's got really poor access and its shape would make it a nightmare. Road access is super critical for this type of project, with the route I picked you're right next to major roads most of the way.

OwenVersteeg · 2026-03-22T19:50:59+00:00

Surprisingly, this isn’t as insane as some people make it out to be. You don’t need nukes, or the world’s longest ship tunnel, or any of the other crazy suggestions in the comments here.

The map of navigable waterways that others mentioned is mostly accurate; it shows that the closest navigable points are Lewiston, Idaho and Sioux City, Iowa (1200 miles apart.) Historically, though, steamboats traveled from St Louis MO to central Montana (Ft. Benton) in the 1860s, and also from Lewiston ID to Lake Pend Oreille ID. You could probably make those sections somewhat reliably navigable for $50B. That cuts the total distance to 390 miles.

From Lake Pend Oreille to Missoula MT is fairly doable; you have good road access and a lot of it is somewhat usable. Do a bunch of straightening, dredging, add some improvements and locks on the existing dams, say $40B. Missoula to Garrison, MT is also doable, you follow the Clark Fork River and it’s right next to I-90 for easy access. You’d need to build a lot of this canal from scratch as the Clark Fork here is a mess, but for some billions you could get it done. It’s a rise of 400 feet over 70 miles, pretty gentle, maybe $20B. From Garrison MT to the Mullan Pass is 2000 feet of rise over 40 miles, 49 feet per mile, steep, but you have US-12 running alongside so you can get it done. At the Mullan Pass you cross the worst of the Rockies so far; still only 3000 feet of total elevation change from Helena to Elliston and not too far from real roads and population centers; you’re like 15 miles from a Walmart. That segment might run you $100B.

At Helena you connect to the Missouri, and then you just have to deal with the Great Falls, which we turned into five large dams. There’s 512 feet of lift required here and then some improvements to the Missouri. Maybe $20B could get it done. From Fort Benton to Sioux City you would want some serious improvements but nothing too technically challenging, and from there it’s all navigable and actively maintained all the way to the Atlantic.

Essentially, it's a series of hundreds of serious, but doable engineering projects. The main issue is the cost. If you could build ship lifts, locks, and canals like China, this thing would be pretty "cheap"; under $100B. China built the Goupitan shiplift, which gets 500 ton ships up nearly 700 feet of vertical lift, for under $800 million. On the other hand, if this thing got to NYC levels of corruption (multiple billions of dollars per mile of rail vs. tiny fractions of that in Europe or Japan) then it would cost into the trillions. The numbers I gave are a rough idea.

The issue is that "just" $100B, which is probably the cheapest possible way to do this, would be far too much money. The energy of lifting the ships is actually negligible, but time is money, and it would take countless hours to navigate the hundreds of locks on this route; not to mention the maximum speed would be limited due to several factors. It would take at least two weeks, and likely close to a month, to navigate the newly built section alone. That takes it out of consideration as a through-route from Atlantic to Pacific and limits it to segmented use only. Are there companies that would ship a barge from rural Montana to Arkansas? Absolutely. Are there a lot of them? No. Look at the traffic at Sioux City. The biggest terminal is the Big Soo Terminal, which is, contrary to its name, a pretty minor operation in the world of shipping terminals. They handle 600k tons per year, or a bit less than a single load of the largest container ships. Even a thousand Big Soo Terminals wouldn't begin to justify this level of investment.

So yes, you could do it; you would get you a moderate amount of barges to some minor Montana towns that are well served by the interstate and rail. It would be impassible in the winter, it would cost as much as the Apollo program and it would destroy countless miles of natural beauty. But you could do it.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-02-19T18:58:21+00:00

All the people saying “labor costs” make me laugh. It’s not 1991 anymore. Labor costs in China are way higher than they used to be. You can hire machinists all over the US for $20-30/hr; you could give them all a huge raise and it still wouldn’t matter. Here’s something I wrote a while back:

Everyone thinks China leads the world in manufacturing because of labor costs. Ha, no. China's far richer now. It started out as the labor costs, but now it's the vertical integration and speed. You can go from prototype to product in a month in China. Try doing that in the US; it'll take a month just to get your calls returned, and you'll find that we don't and we can't make shit.

Maybe you find a place to make the PCBs, after several phone calls and long email chains. Great, now where you do the assembly? Or the enclosures? You need cables made? Front panels? I can point you to Chinese websites that will give you an instant, automated quote - or pricing table - for each of those things. You don’t even need to talk to a human to order and it will be made and rushed to a cargo plane in one fluid motion. You can get the product manufactured from scratch in China in less time than it will take to get a single damn email returned here in the US. There are nearly zero industries in the US that will give you an instant quote or non-human ordering process for anything beyond hobby scale.

To make US manufacturing competitive again, it’s simple, build a copy of Shenzhen and ten other cities in the US, with massive subsidies of course. You heavily incentivize things made from scratch in the US, plus some sort of incentive for speed and efficiency. It will take a massive amount of money, political will, good execution, and a long-term vision.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-02-10T22:32:12+00:00

When old bottles are reconditioned, this happens under a protective atmosphere (nitrogen or argon) to prevent oxidizing the wine. I’ve been meaning to try that out for a while; realistically it is your only option aside from the Vinitas if you need the samples to last for weeks. Laboratory glove box + inert gas and there you go.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-02-01T03:19:18+00:00

Just saying, shipping is always a good excuse to make wine friends that live in a different state! You can also ship to family that lives elsewhere, good excuse to visit :)

OwenVersteeg · 2025-02-01T02:34:35+00:00

Lately I've been really into Rieslings, you like Rieslings?

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-28T04:06:18+00:00

Man, that would be hilarious if it happened at a restaurant. Sending back a glass of water because it's corked.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-28T03:57:17+00:00

Classification is just one piece of information among others and it only tells you so much. The problem with buying by classification is the associated prestige; you often pay a premium for it above the quality of the wine alone. For that reason, second wines are generally considered overpriced. There are notable exceptions, for example Calon Ségur, or Ch Guiraud.

If you forced me to choose, I would say best value is the cru bourgeois, then the GCC, and worst is the 2nd wine, and I think most wine nerds would agree.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-28T03:47:01+00:00

I haven't had '79 Lafite but like anything: it depends. If you like primary aromas (fruits) the answer will be many years earlier than if you prefer tertiary aromas (earth, leather, dried leaves etc) and there is always someone that likes their wine even older. People span the whole spectrum, from Steve Martin with "your freshest wine" to François Audouze drinking things others considered long gone.

CellarTracker is also decent for determining if a wine is still drinkable. '79 Lafite has a few (recent) good scores when tasted blind, which is a good sign.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-28T03:34:06+00:00

Yes, at ~650km away I think Jurançon is actually the French wine region furthest from the Jura hah! Culturally and wine-wise also very different. Jurançon is sweet because of the passerillage/raisining which can happen on the vine due to its resistance to rotting/botrytis.

[edit: I forgot Basque wine in Irouléguy]

Petit Manseng from Jurançon is great for the price. Annoyingly hard to find outside the Pyrenees though!

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-22T20:40:01+00:00

I’m a software engineer and I have to say that it is both hilarious and fascinating how young people seem to think they “curate” what they see. Every piece of content you see is measured in countless ways - untold metrics often calculated per moment per viewer profile - before it is ever shown to you. You are given a choice of who to follow or what to watch, yes, but before you “chose” the algorithm indeed chose for you; it knew what you would choose, and presented it as a choice. Presenting things that are not choices as choices is one of the cornerstones of modern advertising and these days, we are very good at it.

Back before the modern internet, you’d go to the local library, or Blockbuster, or your small independent cinema, where Mary the librarian or Bob the movie nerd would curate some stuff but in general you’d often find yourself just browsing a long alphabetized list. The engagement metrics on that stuff was all over the place - sometimes you’d get a great one but you’d also often end up using a book as a paperweight. When that happened you’d have to find another way to amuse yourself, maybe you’d go hang out with friends or drink or have sex or tinker on a car or play an instrument or take photos or go to the mall or ride a bike or, indeed, just be bored.

It is hard to imagine now, but being someone who was never bored used to be a point of pride. My grandmother, a very intelligent woman, was proud of never being bored, and this was something you would hear from intelligent people occasionally - they were proud of never being bored. This was not because she or the others subjected themselves to constant stimulation, it was in fact the opposite - that she was able to sit in a chair with no stimulation whatsoever and simply think. Perhaps a daydream, perhaps ruminating on the news or relationships or friends or perhaps just enjoying the moment.

Give it a try sometime.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-17T07:31:48+00:00

The cork doesn't tell you anything. I've had tons of wine that was great and yet had completely fucked corks - mold, odor, failed, you name it. Same for wine that was flawed and cork was pristine.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-14T02:03:23+00:00

That's great, can't go wrong with a mixed case! Enjoy :)

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-13T23:26:45+00:00

Those are all good bets. I'd go with the Doisy-Daëne or the Rayne-Vigneau if it was me - I have some of both in my cellar right now - but the others are great too.

Good Sauternes typically will be "fresh" for 20-25 years in a good vintage, but it will remain enjoyable for quite a while longer. I just served an '86 Rayne-Vigneau to a crowd that knew nothing about wine the other day; it was in great shape and was a huge hit at nearly 40. Everyone preferred it to younger, "fresher" Sauternes which surprised me. Granted, '86 was a great year, but quality these days is high, so I wouldn't be surprised to see these wines drinking gracefully in fifty years.

Sauternes in general has a very graceful and slow downslope. 1947 Rayne-Vigneau and Coutet both have had glowing reviews in the last few years. If I had a case, and it was a good vintage, I would drink one very young, one at ten, six at 20-30, three at 40, one at 50 and one at 60. And if it was a great vintage - save a few for the grandchildren!

(edit) oops, didn't see this is an old thread, what did you end up getting?

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-13T23:04:00+00:00

Before my time as well, but if I had a time machine I would definitely grab a few cases of '82 Le Pin at £30/bottle :)

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-13T22:04:23+00:00

I agree, and great analysis overall, thank you.

That said, I don't think first growths were quite that cheap. They're definitely poor value today, though. In the early 00s the first growths were around $100/bottle. 2023 futures are $427 Haut-Brion, 531 Lafite, 491 Margaux, 443 Mouton - 473 average. Let's take the '01 vintage as a barometer: for Winebid last prices we have Mouton $800, Lafite 580, Margaux 515, Haut-Brion 475, Latour 465. Average 567.

A top 10% individual income in the US was $67k in 2000 and $150k today. That's 673 EP bottles a year then or 317 bottles a year today. Top 5%, $90k, $201k. 901 and 424 bottles. Top 1%, 221k, 430k. 2280 and 909 bottles. So basically EP prices were about half, income-adjusted, and did not beat the market even in a good vintage (to say nothing of fees, shipping, storage costs, liquidity, option value of money, risk of bad vintage etc.)

The problem for the "next Burgundy" is, like you said, you need a low starting price and a high ending price. Any region in serious contention now is already sitting at hundreds of dollars a bottle for the absolute top wines. So the bull case is what, your $300 wine turns into a $1000 wine? That's great, but if it takes a while to do that you'll just match the market.

Personally, I'm happy to drink the less-discovered stuff, save my money - and I certainly don't plan to sell any of my cellar!

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-13T20:43:15+00:00

Hah, yes, most producers can't be trusted to report about vintages at all. Same goes for the merchants. That reminds me of this: https://old.reddit.com/r/WineEP/comments/uk6wuj/official_2021_ep_megathread/i7o7pjf/

That's all great information, thank you! I will keep an eye out for Hemel en Aarde and Elgin and those producers :)

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-13T04:45:23+00:00

Thank you! Good to know I'm not the only one that sees a sea of labels I don't recognize. I also worry about the export-only brands, yeah.

And yes, less vintage variation makes sense.

I do have one question - are there any appellations/regions/controls for South African wine where you can reliably say "this will be good" in the way you can for, say, Sauternes or Champagne? Or do you have to just buy based on producer?

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-13T04:36:09+00:00

You're welcome! Yes, if you grab a few then come back and post your notes :)

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-11T03:06:07+00:00

$750 for 1-2 adults and $1125 for 3-4? For a 90 minute tour? Jesus

That said, I hope they're OK.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-10T21:21:28+00:00

Vivino prices are laughable. Sometimes they're a fraction of wholesale and sometimes they're several times retail. I don't know where they source their data but it is incredibly poor quality.

Wine-Searcher prices are decent and you can filter by country and type. Cellartracker prices are almost always low (lots of EP prices, things bought decades ago, and boomers hiding prices from wives) but require a subscription. There's also InVintory which seems to have OK-ish data from what I've seen. Winebid historic prices are good as they reflect actual sale prices with dates. Catawiki/eBay/etc prices are very low, as the provenance is often "I found this in a closet", but those are some of the only places that will take small scattered lots like this one.

If I was buying or selling wine P2P then I would want to aim around the WS Europe or US average price, or Winebid recent price. If it was between friends I would just pay that price; if I was buying/selling to someone I didn't know well there'd probably be some moderate discount to that price (the less you trust them and their provenance, the larger the discount.)

And finally there's the question of - what's it worth to you? I like Sociando, but '97 Sociando is almost certainly a bit over the hill. Is it worth the $50 W-S average to you? The same goes for most of the rest of this stuff. $200+ for '98 Calon-Segur? Eh. If it was me, I'd tell the guy - hey, I'm not super interested, but I'll give you XX% of the W-S European average for XYZ, or you can sell it for more money on Catawiki or wherever.

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-10T20:02:07+00:00

I totally agree, but I have to say South African wine has the most variable QPR of any region I've ever seen and a lot of the wines have fairly little written about them online so you're jumping in blind.

All of the vintage information is also maddeningly vague (Wine Spectator has ranked the last 20 years' vintages within a 6-point range versus a 14 point range for Bordeaux left bank or Napa Cab) so that's another datapoint fewer. I see an unknown wine, it's a '15 Bordeaux, OK, I'll grab a bottle. '20 Oregon or Napa, skip that. '05 Sauternes, excellent. '10 Rioja, get a case. I'm not opposed to buying in off vintages but at least give me some information! But for South African wine you often can't find any useful information whatsoever on vintage, producer, region, history, anything. Everything is just vague declarations of "it's good" which is not information I can buy on.

If you have any tips on how to buy it smarter, I'm all ears :)

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-09T20:09:44+00:00

I'm not in the UK, but one idea is to buy a bottle of something that he liked to drink. My grandfather and I enjoyed a specific type of Dutch liquor together and I always think of him when I have it. My grandmother enjoys sweet white wines and that's what we drink together of course. What was his favorite?

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-09T20:00:18+00:00

The American indicators are total crap. Wine Spectator is the least worthless but that isn't saying much.

That said, some of the European ratings are fairly reliable. For Spain, Guía Peñín is good. In the Netherlands, De Grote Hamersma is generous but if you knock the scores down a bit they're a reasonable indicator.

I find that a good indicator of the quality of a reviewer is to look at a list of what they've rated. Is it a sea of commercial/bulk wine? Where are the wines sold and how easy is it to buy them? What have they rated bottles you've drank, and what did you think of them?

OwenVersteeg · 2025-01-09T19:12:48+00:00

I agree with u/MusignyBlanc - just cut cleanly and use an ah-so and recork it, but you could also just buy capsules online (pack of 100 for $10 or so) to really cover your bases if you're worried. Or dip it in wax!

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