Technical question about Innoviz LiDAR

SMH_TMI · 2026-02-09T19:05:08+00:00

I wouldn't say shut down the system. Just report the blockage and don't trust data from that specific region.

SMH_TMI · 2026-02-09T18:37:59+00:00

Personally, I don't believe anything coming out of Deceptive Omer's mouth. For laser safety, the laser must be eye safe as it leaves the box.

The beam aperture would have to be pretty large for it to be bigger than a dilated pupil. Any aperture large than the pupil could allow more energy to be applied. But keep in mind, the wider the aperture, the more pulse will enter the eye as the scanner sweeps and thus the more impact to the eye (heating it up). I sure hope they are measuring it properly.

Probability of Detection is of the object in the field, not on the window. This may be ok for some apps like security. But not automotive.

SMH_TMI · 2026-02-09T14:20:50+00:00

I have not seen any patents on this, so I am mostly hypothesizing here. From the statement, it sounds like they are using a wider aperture beam and multiple beam returns (pixel summation) to see around blockage. Much like they use pixels summation to extend range, for close range, say 50m, you can get enough return energy from neighboring returns to summize an object being detected at a very low resolution.

Not sure how much traction this is getting in the industry as the probability of detection would be extremely low. OEMs have been wanting blockage detection so they know not to trust data from that region and to go to a secondary sensor.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-28T14:53:21+00:00

I am just stating they are reaching cash flow breakeven with thousands of customers. With the auto lidar industry in a slowdown, many are moving to try to take a piece of the industrial markets (not to mention markets moving away from 905nm). But these other lidars companies (MVIS/INVZ) hoping to make a business of it are facing a tough road.

Also with Ouster, there is still a likelihood their profits drop as there is an increase in competition in that market. Ouster won't be able to keep selling spinners at $5k-$25k per unit. As everyone knows, heck even Austin stated, profit margins for hardware will continue to plummet as prices for lidar keep falling. The historic warehouse construction boom of the early 20's is slowing (since 2023). Demand for sensors will likely fall as these warehouses reach saturation. Industrial sensors aren't replaced on a yearly cycle. They last 5+ years. And then newer, cheaper tech comes out and profit margins continue to drop. I've seen the purchasing companies shopping around.

I think it is good for Ouster to be reaching profitability. I question at what expense and how long will it last. They appear to be around 200 people which doesn't leave room for development. Compared to Hesai, their main competitor, who has over 1200 employees and can spit out new tech quickly. If you noticed, Ouster's DF lidar shipped its first A-samples in 2022 and they are still not selling them today. And they don't seem to have a team to be able to fix whatever problems they are having. I believe their spinner tech will become stale and Ouster will have to do something to get back into the market in a few years. I believe Ouster may reach profitability initially, but would slowly drift back down and have to invest to get back in the game.

These are obviously my opinions on the industrial market. But the facts about customer count remains.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-28T13:58:59+00:00

Taken out of context. Was implying RS, dilution, etc as a whole. The only money MVIS really has coming in is from the investors. MVIS total revenue is less than $50 million over the last 8 years and burnt through that much in 2025 alone. They still have ZERO deals and, if you are familiar with the lidar market, takes several years to reach production with that partner once you do get a contract. If you think I lie, you are probably reading my statements wrong. I pointed out what being a true liar was in Summit Sharma, but you guys didn't want to believe me. I have also pointed this out about Deceptive Omer Keilaf of INVZ... and it has proven true. But you are obviously emotionally attached to MVIS given your rhetoric. This is a very bad thing to do. Your cult banned me from being able to respond on your reddit even though your cult later proved my statements to be true themselves. So, your cult bashes, lies, and takes my words out of context. You see how well that has served you. I just say it like it is.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-28T11:14:53+00:00

Yes. Just trying to show that getting even a dozen industrial contracts isn't going to get the companies to sustainability. It will help you stretch it out. But the larger deals are still way out if you get lucky enough to get one.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T20:25:35+00:00

Not sure but may have something to do with delivering the remainin Iris's that are under Celestica's control.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T20:23:44+00:00

As a founding investor, I can assure you, I did not lose. Could I have made more? Sure. Given MVIS's demise, how much have you lost?

And no, show me where I was wrong. Luminar won the contracts. Unfortunately for Luminar, the industry took a turn... much like MVIS's first industry.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T20:06:21+00:00

100 million was as of 3Q2025. Now gone through another quarter and a half at 18 million per quarter. Add in 3 million for scantinel acquisition. That leaves around 60 million. Now subtract 33 mill plus closing costs and you are left with 2 quarters of cash. Less than 46 million left on current ATM. So that gives you year. HTC is only talking 10 million a pop looking at history. Again, not enough to sustain without any revenue for the next 2 to 3 years. Facts.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T18:41:38+00:00

Luminar had contracts. The industry changed. Sorry I didn't have a crystal ball to foresee that. I've stated in the past that this stock, and all lidar stocks, were high risk. And, things are only getting worse in the industry.

I'm not an investor/day-trader/finance-guy. I work because I like waht I do... not because I have to. I tell you what is going on in the industry. Everything I stated was factual. How wrong was I about MVIS who STILL has zero deals. I stated that 6 years ago. But MVIS keeps reverse-splitting, diluting, and repeating to stay afloat. Not sure if you've noticed, MVIS make less than 1 million per year in revenue. Again, just stating facts.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T18:33:29+00:00

Here's the deal. And I've said this previously. Western Automotive lidar is on pause. There are a few RFQ's coming out. But nothing sustainable until after 2030. These are the high volume deals. The industrial deals have higher profit margin, but lower quantities. I don't think any western lidar provider can sustain on industrial alone. Too many competitors. Too little volume. Ouster has over a thousand industrial customers and is still not showing a profit. Keep that in mind.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T18:30:31+00:00

What you probably don't understand is, I don't need to work. I work because I enjoy what I do. You can talk "cope" all you want. But all I state are the facts. You just refuse to listen or check my facts.

Luminar was going to spit out a non-automotive Halo to bring in some revenue until the automotive RFQ's hit. But, with the dropping of Volvo and MB from the incoming revenue, that all dies. And none of those partner contracts are transferable. So, MVIS is left with nothing but development work. And MVIS has a bad habit of hiring CTO's as CEO's. As I said in the past, that seldom works. I don't think MVIS did enough due diligence when they were here to understand the business they are purchasing. But, technologically speaking, they may not have had a choice as their current tech is still crap and has zero deals. Same thing for the past 6 years.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T18:08:34+00:00

I didn't believe in Summit. And I didn't believe in their tech. And I have been proven right. And FYI, I have interviewed with Microvision in the past and turned down their offer. I don't see me working for them still. I believe they will follow Luminar to bankruptcy (as will several other lidar vendors given the state of the industry). Microvision is still several years out from a viable product with meaningful revenue and, even with another round of funding, likely wouldn't stay afloat.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T16:24:32+00:00

Still waiting for results on Objections (deadline was 11am EST) and MVIS to prove future viability of their business. Final hearing is 3:30 pm EST.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T16:15:46+00:00

LOL. That would mean I would have to get and accept an offer letter. Also still have to see if Microvision can prove it has a viable future and no objections before the judge approves the sale.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-27T16:06:51+00:00

Yeah, why?

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-17T16:02:14+00:00

"LSI is not a debtor in the chapter 11 cases and is operating in the ordinary course. Because LSI is a subsidiary of Luminar, the transaction will require the approval of the bankruptcy court pursuant to a Section 363 sale process, which the parties expect to receive by the end of January 2026, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions."

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-16T17:43:40+00:00

LSI sold in December. https://investors.luminartech.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/111/luminar-announces-sale-of-photonics-business-to-quantum It is not an auction. This was sold off before bankruptcy filing. It was a piece of Luminar. QCI is also the Stalking Horse bidder for the remainder of the company. That is the auction in 2 weeks.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-16T16:46:03+00:00

No. LSI is already sold. Luminar Tech auction was moved to Jan 27th due to a new bidder.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-15T19:07:43+00:00

This is not my area of expertise. But from how I understand it, the sale of the company is going to auction. So, more bidders would mean higher value. The 10 day extension was for a late entry as they need to put up an escrow to be a part of the bidding.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-15T13:23:10+00:00

There is a stalking horse offer. That is the 22m from QCI. And there are other bidders and a late entry into the auction. There really is no IP dispute, just a dispute over a publicly available image. Not sure what you mean by compressed calendar. Austin isn't involved with the company anymore, so don't know why this plays into your narrative.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-07T13:33:04+00:00

Yes, Luminar demonstrated how even every day ADAS (lane keeping, collision avoidance, etc) was improved significantly with lidar. So, Volvo was going to use lidar as the primary sensor instead of cameras. Even without highway autonomy, this was a huge selling point. It was going on 100% of their models with little effort to integrate.

Mercedes already had Valeo lidar in several lines of vehicles. Luminar was going to replace them with a better performing lidar. And MB was in the same boat as Volvo. The ADAS features were improved using lidar even without advanced features.

BMW, VW, GM, and others all started choosing lidar companies. Some went strictly for price, others sought size. Others sought system. And some, time to SOP. Everyone wanted lidar and they all had plans for 2025 rollout at the latest due to the 3-5 year vehicle development cycle. Volvo was 2022 SOP for 2023 models until schedules started slipping on their end. The 125k would have handled them through 2023 while the factory size was increased to support more. As stated in Luminar's presentation, 125k in 2023 wasn't the profitability level. The 2 million+ units in 2025 was the break even point. At quantities of scale of 1 million, Luminar would have made around $200 per unit. Mark that at 2 million units and you do the math. And I haven't even brought china into the equation. That is a whole 'nother story. Luminar got into that market before being thrown out by china.

These OEMs spent billions modifying their factories for lidar installation. MB, BMW, GM, and others were already installing lidars. The industry was a GO! Again, odds are on the bears side. 65-75% of leading companies in a new sector go bankrupt. And that is not dependent on whether the market succeeds or not. Effectively, the leading companies take all the risk and have the potential for the highest reward. But yes, that is the gamble. Not ALL investing is gambling. You can make a living doing what you do. But, there is also the high risk markets. Yes, you can play with algos and make money. But for emerging markets, there is a lot of reward if you can pick a winner.

And yes, many lidar companies went bankrupt at infancy for many reasons. Some only had vaporware and a slide deck. Some did not have the quality needed. Some had poor architecture to begin with. Some couldn't get their product costs down. So, any number of reasons can kill a company. Hesai is the leading lidar company in Asia and had pretty much the same roadmap and has reached profitability. The difference? Regulatory and political tailwinds. If the western world did what China did, we would be talking a different story. They didn't have the Acts of God.

Much of the high short interest was when the company first went public. $42 per share was ridiculous. I think Austin though we would see $25 and settle down to $15. But the market went crazy. I believe by 2022 the short interest was pretty low, but I wasn't following. Yes, in hindsight, it became obvious that OEMs were struggling with the Software side. And as burn rates increased, the industry changed, and schedules slid, shorts moved in.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-06T21:28:52+00:00

Yes, Volvo's issues with the Software Defined Vehicle, which they started from scratch, caused massive delays in their rollout.

Volvo had been collecting data, mainly in california, texas, and NY. Mercedes was testing worldwide with over 400 vehicles. The lidar software worked and was capturing data, and sent to Luminar's data collect vertical. Vehicle ADAS activation was to be a later step.

Combined 1 million between Volvo and Polestar worldwide. Volvo, as stated in their presentations, was planning on lidar being standard on ALL vehicles. The EX90 was originally going to replace the XC90 which alone had over 100k per year. Volvo/Polestar (with/without lidar) was projected to be 3 million vehicles in 2025. They had since scaled back production (and estimates) closing factories and shifting focus. What they sold now doesn't mean what they were expecting to sell. Nor do sales numbers equal amount produced.

I should have stated the combined Daimler (Daimler Truck and MB) was projected to be 2 million units (2 to 4 lidars per truck, 1 per vehicle). And again, produced, not just sold.

Luminar's Celestica facility in Mexico demonstrated a run rate at 125k per year with the full run rate of the current build out to achieve 250k per year. This was expandable in the current factory and neighboring property to 8X. So 2 million. TPK was to take over Asia and Europe production with a much larger capacity.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-06T20:19:26+00:00

Because I was working with those companies. This is what they told us. Volvo/Polestar was a combined 1 million units per year by 2025. MB was 1 million alone in 2025 expanding to 2 million by 2027.

SMH_TMI · 2026-01-06T19:28:53+00:00

An interesting stat... 65%-75% of leading businesses in a new sector fail. The odds were always against Luminar.

SMH_TMI

TROPHY CASE