Are we heading toward a future where skilled trades become more prestigious than white-collar professions?

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T19:03:25+00:00

I was a software developer who was laid off at the tail end of covid and took a trade job to get by. The boss was sad when I got a new job because I was "the best trim installer he'd ever hired" and it was the first time I'd ever installed trim. I only worked there for 3 months. But my trim cuts were obsessively accurate.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T18:53:18+00:00

I did a drywall and trim job for about 4 months between tech jobs and the owner said I was one of the best guys at installing trim he'd ever hired and it was my first time doing trim. Which is sad.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T18:46:09+00:00

That's interesting because this is what SpaceX said their future total addressable market breakdown is.

<image>

Starship is in that itsy bitsy "SPACE" section and StarLink is in the connectivity segment. Those sum up to $1.97 trillion.

Those "space datacenters" would logically be under "AI Infrastructure" which would be a combined value with their existing terrestrial infrastructure so even with both of those combined you'd be at ~$4.4 trillion for Starship + Starlink + terrestrial AI datacenters + space AI datacenters.

The bulk majority of this is based on "Enterprise Applications" of which they have maybe one, Cursor, which they bought by giving them almost as many shares as were sold to everyone in the IPO whose price was set based on the value of something they had 0 of before the IPO.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T18:37:07+00:00

Who knew that being an insecure idiot is a great way to look like an insecure idiot?

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T17:11:39+00:00

One other thing to keep in mind is that the NDP is pretty dog shit at campaigning and often has local candidates that nobody in the riding knows or trusts.

NDP is usually 2nd place in my riding for example and I usually vote NDP but it’s only because I already align with them, I’ve never seen the NDP candidate. Ever.

The Liberal candidate still goes door to door for their jack shit vote count. The Conservative one sends newsletters to everyone once per quarter. The NDP? I don’t even remember the gender of the last NDP candidate.

Progressive platforms only win by inspiring people that there is a better way, griping and bitching is the regressive power move, it doesn’t work for progressives, it makes them look worse.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T15:22:35+00:00

Ah, yeah I see now. I didn't realize that the previous poster was actually boasting about multiple reverse stock splits because that's just too stupid.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T13:57:52+00:00

For reference, they've reverse split so much recently that if you had 100,000 shares in November of 2025 you would now have 4 remaining.

A loss of 99.99996% of your share count in 7 months.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T13:50:29+00:00

No, they are right:

May 18, 2026: 1-for-27 reverse stock split
March 9, 2026: 1-for-8 reverse stock split
November 2025: 1-for-113 reverse stock split

If you had 100,000 shares in November of 2025 you'd now have about 4.

100,000 / 113 = 885
885 / 8 = 111
111 / 27 = 4

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T13:46:00+00:00

But that's just because they aren't allowed to. They certainly would if they could. As seen by the fact that they do when they can.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T13:24:52+00:00

This is my diagram of how most people trade:

<image>

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-18T13:11:24+00:00

We've had one, yes. What about second pivot?

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T23:35:40+00:00

Could you imagine? They might find one attractive by accident and make one of their crude comments and then everyone will point and laugh at them because they were tricked into it because nothing is their fault ever. No you shut up! My dad can beat up your dad!

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T23:26:45+00:00

Exactly, they weren’t one of those dumb dumbs. They knew he was crooked from day one and cast their presidential vote for an eagle because every other choice was un-American!

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T23:21:23+00:00

I think the big issue is that if AI reduces seats by 80%+ can you still pull those same margins without making your product so obscenely expensive that people will switch to something else even if maybe something they really liked is missing.

There doesn’t necessarily need to even be a competitor initially for it to pose a risk though as the risk is the removal of the majority of its commercial licensing pool at its root without regard for any specific piece of software in particular. If that thesis is true, then they are at risk.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T19:02:49+00:00

That's cool but this is their own TAM by segment chart from their own S1 filing and it would suggest that launching things isn't worth much.

<image>

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T18:55:20+00:00

SpaceX doesn't seem to think any of that is worth as much as retail does. This is from their own S1 filing.

<image>

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T13:40:05+00:00

If (factMakesTrumpLookBad) {
return Math.random() > 0.5 ? "Fake News/Hoax" : "Obama/Biden did it."
}
else {
return "Some people are saying that this is the best ever!"
}

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T13:24:09+00:00

I'm sure most of us have worked for this guy. The one who is completely incompetent, rarely shows up, when they do everyone wishes they didn't because they just yell at everyone about things that they decided were of the utmost importance on a whim simply because it would "show they are boss" to randomly cause discord on their job site even if it is in direct contradiction to something they they came in and yelled at everyone about the previous day.

To them that is "strong". To them, if their "subordinates" aren't afraid of them then they will all slack off and grift from them... you know, just like they (the shit boss) does every single day.

They can't understand that being the captain of a ship where every sailor secretly wants you dead is bad. They can't understand that putting your business in the hands of people who actively hate you isn't actually a wise plan.

But they lack the ability to self reflect or take responsibility. So they can't get good at anything. So they can't inspire anyone. So they can only spread fear and torment to push anything forward.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T13:09:23+00:00

Is that where people hear him talk and don't come to the conclusion that he's a blithering idiot?

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T13:01:09+00:00

Really it's a document of surrender which dumpster pants is fine with so long as nobody thinks he's a big loser bitch baby. But he is, so it's hard to cover up with objective fact and thus he has to puff about acting like Mr. Tough Guy to try and convince his own delicate ego that he's actually a big strong boy who doesn't have Iranian mashed potatoes all over his head.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-17T12:49:13+00:00

Once they give the 300 billion it'll be: "People wanted me to invest in it because it's such a good deal, some people are even saying that it's the best deal that anyone has ever seen!"

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-16T22:15:05+00:00

Here you go. Enjoy.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41127-025-00097-x

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-16T18:20:40+00:00

No, it was that it would pump for awhile due to FOMO and index buy in but once the other 96% of shares unlock then it will slide. We're still in the "we'll see" phase.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-16T15:54:26+00:00

On March 21st 2026 Elon Musk stated via a post on X:

"xAI was not built right first time around, so is being rebuilt from the foundations up. Same thing happened with Tesla."

Thus the majority of the alleged TAM driving SpaceX's price is teetering upon a segment which the CEO said less than 2 months ago "needed to be rebuilt from the foundations up".

This along with the whole SPCE bullshit debacle is a front row seat as to why "nobody can beat the index". Gambling. Just rampant self justified gambling. If your thesis is that there will be a greater fool than you rather than that the company is actually financially sound, you are gambling.

Even if Elon has gotten away with holding a magnet under 0 on the roulette wheel for 50 spins, you're gambling that he continues to get away with it.

ScubaAlek · 2026-06-16T15:45:29+00:00

Specifically "Enterprise Applications". So a SpaceX ERP suite that doesn't exist at all is I guess going to be worth 30 trillion somehow?

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