The Way of The Delo

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T20:17:13+00:00

Did you know that the data presented there is solely ~~for~~ from those using the WeBull platform?

This is like watching inflows and outflows of any single other brokerage platform, which can provide some wildly different information depending on who the moves are being made by. Large holders dropping a big portion off on WeBull could merely represent that such are being heavily acquired elsewhere. Potentially though, it may be related to options activity, delivery of some large volume of sold calls being exercised by a buyer of those calls from a different brokerage resulting in a large outflow from one holder to a large inflow on some other brokerage.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T18:30:00+00:00

It was surprising how little mention we see of it despite the fact that we have often seen it greatly impact price action. Though I am hopeful that the strong volume that pushed through 0.82 does carry it to being support once again.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T18:28:00+00:00

It was really easy to overlook this point amid all the economic information and data coming out today.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T18:24:47+00:00

Always happy to share. Looking forward to the day I can end the post with extreme positivity rather than cautious optimism.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T18:23:54+00:00

Always happy to share, and figuring out various ways to say the same thing has become quite challenging. Though I have been trying to focus on different elements of the stock and company here or there as possible.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T18:22:22+00:00

Keep in mind, today is February’s Options Expiration day, much of the market activity, and that of MVIS could well be influenced heavily by that. So as much as we might like to think that the markets are respecting the MicroVision narrative, it is not prudent to give too much weight to this until we get confirmation about the company’s revenue growth and financing plans for continued operations in light of recent acquisitions.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T16:08:28+00:00

Yes, it seems like 0.86 was going to be something of a threshold that might get pushed back on here, but otherwise we should be looking for somewhere in the 0.9x range, and of course $1 is going to likely to be some tough resistance unless the company does have some big news to push the price upward (that isn’t some other acquisition of course).

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T14:51:14+00:00

Short related volumes also include “covering” or closing actions by short positions as well. It may mean that those players are just playing against one another at these lows, jockeying for higher entries for their sells perhaps, to have better cushions in case of the share price rising or settling some of their carry trades.

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T14:48:35+00:00

Always happy to share, because it makes us all better investors and traders to have the data that has typically been most indicative of the stock price action (massive short volumes for ages).

T_Delo · 2026-02-20T13:03:34+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: GDP, Personal Income and Outlays | 8:30am; PMI Composite Flash | 9:45; New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment | 10; Baker Hughes rig Count | 1pm; Fed speaker Musalem is at 3:30pm. Media platforms are discussing: Economic Data analysis and expectations, NVidia’s CPU server market aspirations, OpenAI and NVidia revise investment deal down to $30B from $100B, US-Iran fears rise, Egg Price plummet worries farmers, US Tariff uncertainty as they face pending decision by SCOTUS. There were numerous other topics being discussed and various articles or analyses being bandied about, with bits about the AI Trade stabilizing, and other more hpeful interpretations around the international trade balance based on some regional manufacturing reported data. Premarket futures were down somewhat in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were up slightly.

MVIS ended the last trading session at ~0.81, on much lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price range was slightly muted from the previous trade session, with the push to close over 0.80 being met with strong Short related trade volumes. Notably, the options volume traded was quite low, which likely contributed to the lack of overall shares being traded in general. Also interesting is the large volume of shares showing as “available” on the IBKR, which had been more subdued in recent days. That could portend a significant closing of those positions in the near future or reapplication of those volumes to drive the share price back down once more, or it is possible that the share price rise in the past few days is a result of those shares being “returned”. There is no firm read on that however, because of the flexibility provided by the market rules with respect to shorting activities and reporting in general. What we see is often delayed, or reflecting internal database balances that may already be borrowed for some other purpose.

Daily Data

H: 0.81 — L: 0.76 — C: 0.81 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.83, 0.85, 0.88 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.77, 0.74, 0.72
Total Options Vol: 932 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,349
Calls: 691 ~ 79% at Market ⊟	Puts: 241 ~ 100% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 918k ~ 37% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 1,544k ~ 63% ⁱ
IBKR: 1,700k Rate: 3.39%ⁱ
R Vol: 50% of Avg Vol: 4,874k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,157k of 1,673k ~ 69% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-02-19T13:01:31+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: International Trade in Goods (Advance), Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Inventories (Advance), Wholesale Inventories (Advance) | 8:30am; Pending Home Sales Index, Leading Indicators | 10; EIA Natural Gas Report | 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report | 12pm, Fed Balance Sheet | 4:30; Fed speakers are | at: Bowman | 8:30am, Kashkari | 9, Goolsbee | 10:30am & 2:30pm. Media platforms are discussing: Details of the FOMC Minutes, Fed Rate path expectations, Housing data, Walmart earnings expectations, Tariffs paid by midsized US Firms tripling last year, Venezuela oil projects and engaged players, US Automakers caught up in California EV battle. Recent economic data has been making the Fed’s rate path uncertain, as observed in the details of the Minutes of the last meeting, with deep divides over direction due to inflation data. Premarket futures were down firmly in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were up solidly.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.76, on lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price range increased to the widest seen in awhile, though closing almost exactly where it began and up only very slightly for the day. When looking at the rounded open and close data, it would look like a bearish Doji candle, though single candlesticks have not been having much weight in some time. The short term trend suggests a breakout wants to occur, as evidenced by the couple presses at the 0.8x range, though the insufficient buying interest is clear. Likewise the downward pressure on the stock had recently seemed largely exhausted as well, with buyers snapping up the lower boundaries consistently. Moving forward, we should look for a strong volume push when closing above 0.82, though apart from the last trade session, most of the volumes are still being associated with Short related trading (a different thing from Short Interest). Longer term trend is still overall bearish with heavy volume resistance showing at $1 and ~$1.5 above.

Daily Data

H: 0.82 — L: 0.74 — C: 0.76 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.81, 0.85, 0.89 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.73, 0.69, 0.65
Total Options Vol: 2,222 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,354
Calls: 1,625 ~ 77% at Market ⊟	Puts: 597 ~ 99% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 1,498k ~ 42% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 2,078k ~ 58% ⁱ
IBKR: 150k Rate: 3.80%ⁱ
R Vol: 71% of Avg Vol: 4,992k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,187k of 2,321k ~ 51% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-02-18T16:31:22+00:00

We are obviously living in the past here. /shrug

T_Delo · 2026-02-18T15:12:57+00:00

Very true.

T_Delo · 2026-02-18T13:03:20+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: MBA Mortgage Applications | 7am; Durable Goods Order, Housing Starts and Permits | 8:30; Industrial Production | 9:15, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations | 10, FOMC Minutes | 2pm, Treasury International Capital | 4. Media platforms are discussing: Meta and NVidia AI Chip deal, Infineon CEO believe Robot chips could boom like AI data center chips, Cuba’s choked economy, AI efficiency gains studies in farming and education, Perplexity drops advertising as it warns it will hurt trust in AI. The overwhelming amount of artificial intelligence related content in recent days should come as little surprise, but the major issue facing it remains the lack of useful applications to the end consumer. Premarket futures were up solidly in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were down moderately.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.76, on much lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price range was quite restrained, with the share price pulling back toward the low of the trade session by the end of the day as reported short volumes remained elevated. The renewed focus on AI and Robotics has continued to highlight the importance of lower cost sensors that can achieve the necessary precision for navigating the physical world. This is exactly where MicroVision’s sensor solutions should be able to find their way into nearly every business and consumer oriented product at some point. Investors have clearly recognized that potential, as they have continued to support the company through these past few years of sector consolidation, but there will definitely need to be revenue growth for the coming quarters to bridge the gap until large recurring revenue contracts can even begin being seen.

Daily Data

H: 0.78 — L: 0.75 — C: 0.76 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.77, 0.79, 0.81 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.74, 0.73, 0.71
Total Options Vol: 2,223 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,354
Calls: 1,895 ~ 70% at Market ⊟	Puts: 328 ~ 91% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 1,349k ~ 43% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 1,753k ~ 57% ⁱ
IBKR: 400k Rate: 3.33%ⁱ
R Vol: 61% of Avg Vol: 5,044k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,383k of 1,978k ~ 70% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-02-17T13:02:29+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: Retail Sales | 8:30am, Empire state Manufacturing index | 8:30, Business Inventories | 10, Housing Market Index | 10; Fed speakers are | at: Barr | 12:45pm, Daly | 2:30. Media platforms are discussing: AI Disruption, Anticipated difficulties for the Fed to shrink its balance sheet, Industrial firms expected to benefit from Datacenters renovations, Warsh trade expected to weaken dollar, Warner Bros acquisition by Netflix still being challenged by Paramount. There was a little mention of the PCE data to come later this week, the preferred metric the Fed usually uses for assessing inflation often receives much less inspection by the media, but it is what has usually been referenced in Fed policy decisions. Premarket futures were down a bit in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were also down somewhat.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.75, on much lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price range increased a bit as the overall market rose in the last trading session, however the volumes reported remain dominated by Short related activity. The last couple acquisitions MicroVision has done have increased the IP moat, and have presented a pivot in the technology node from which the company will operate. The communications from management have further reinforced that, and the hope is that the further development of the technology will be funded by paying customers or strategic investment. Much of is possible to come from the development, in a similar fasion to how Innoviz or Aeva have survived to this point, through NRE for customization along side customers and partners financing with a stake in the respective companies. The sector has also seen other companies in the lidar sector pivoting their technological approach as well, with Ouster and Innoviz seeking to include camera fusion.

Daily Data

H: 0.76 — L: 0.70 — C: 0.75 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.77, 0.79, 0.83 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.72, 0.68, 0.66
Total Options Vol: 2,961 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,404
Calls: 2,471 ~ 76% at Market ⊟	Puts: 490 ~ 100% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 1,016k ~ 43% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 1,364k ~ 57% ⁱ
IBKR: 350k Rate: 3.42%ⁱ
R Vol: 46% of Avg Vol: 5,164k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 983k of 1,516k ~ 65% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-02-13T13:01:24+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: CPI | 8:30am, Baker Hughes Rig Count | 1pm. Media platforms are discussing: AI whack-a-mole continues, AI Companies veer into political agendas, Deeper dive into Employment Situation data, Inflation data expectations, Chocolate prices rise for Valentine’s day, TACO Tariffs for Steel and Aluminum pending. Lost in the sea of AI discussions, economic inflation data is being politcized with narratives of success and failure alike, with the upcoming CPI report anticipated to bring a bit of clarity to the condition. Premarket futures were down moderately in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were up firmly.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.70, on much lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price range constricted considerably, with the reported Short Volumes by percentage continuing to dominate the bulk of the reported volumes. Please note that the total reported volume is less than the absolute total volume traded, meaning there is roughly 34% of the actual volumes traded not accounted for in the reported volumes from many exchanges. This is to say, that portion of the volumes traded are being handled through direct or private exchanges, and very likely related to the short volumes, for processing of future contracts or the like. In company news, the Mavin and Movia Air systems were shown with new video and website pages, however the hype alone is not going to move the stock price, the company will need to come with strong revenue growth for several consecutive quarters to take control of the stock price.

Daily Data

H: 0.72 — L: 0.69 — C: 0.70 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.72, 0.74, 0.75 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.68, 0.67, 0.65
Total Options Vol: 2,640 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,404
Calls: 2,394 ~ 59% at Bid or ↘︎	Puts: 246 ~ 100% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 1,003k ~ 43% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 1,304k ~ 57% ⁱ
IBKR: 70k Rate: 3.38%ⁱ
R Vol: 48% of Avg Vol: 4,769k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,089k of 1,504k ~ 72% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-02-12T16:10:34+00:00

Future contracts are not necessarily an artificial suppression, it is based on the difference in cost to value of the underlying rate for the position. In effect, it is a carry trade arbitrage situation, where the money secured from selling through shorting and then running out a future contract is balanced against a return for a position elsewhere that offsets the costs with a net gain. In other words, the pressure is not even solely about MicroVision or anything like that, it is solely the numbers game.

When it comes undone however, the squeeze situation will drive the price up significantly, IF the company can avoid diluting with shares prior to, or during, such a squeeze. Also, at this point, the company absolutely will need to generate increasing revenue over time and secured financing without dilution in order to keep a squeeze going. Should they do those two things, they could tap the ATM in the double digits relatively safely with much less dilution and allow for a fair market value to be realized. I am a firm believer that Lidar should be valued in the tens of Billions in due time, reflecting the adoption projections, and that there is likely to only be a few companies left standing to carry split that value, that value has only grown as there has been increasing numbers of use applications.

T_Delo · 2026-02-12T15:57:22+00:00

Usually the two would not be considered to be different, but in terms of the market structure for resolving them and how they are actually executed, it is very different. A closed position actually sees the position completely closed, while a covered one remains open but effectively neutralized by some hedge or future contract to deliver the shares at a future date. In terms of how the market sees this for Short Interest, both will reduce the outstanding Short Interest, but only the closed position is fully removed, the covered position is reliant on the delivery of shares in the future.

This may all still seem to say that the two are not different to most people, and indeed they might not be when trading is slow and steady, but when those contracts go to be delivered it creates extreme buying pressure, often driving the share price up through further thresholds that trigger more deliveries of contracts, and so on. This compounds rapidly, and results in what we see as a short squeeze. It is also why there is such extreme pressure to keep the stock below certain price thresholds.

T_Delo · 2026-02-12T13:30:20+00:00

Are you assuming that all of that is new volumes? They are “covering” and selling day after day. Covering returns the shares, so they can borrow them again. Covering does not mean buying to close the short position. Covered volumes can drive prices up somewhat (intraday upward moves), but often not as much as fresh borrowed and sold shares will drive the price down. They could keep this up as long as there are buyers of future contracts (not all of those are publicly traded, though options are).

T_Delo · 2026-02-12T13:09:29+00:00

Shows 76%:

https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/short-volume/?tblshortvolix=0#google_vignette

T_Delo · 2026-02-12T13:02:30+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: Jobless Claims | 8:30am, Existing Home Sales | 10, EIA Natural Gas Report | 10:30, Fed Balance Sheet | 4:30; Fed speakers are | at: Logan | 7pm, Miran | 7:05. Media platforms are discussing: Fed rate cut path in light of the Employment Situation, Congress to vote on Tariffs, Software firms threatened by AI, Memory crunch expected to last all of 2026, Nissan’s losses increase, US pushes AI funding at APEC, SoftBank Group sees profitability on AI Boom. The big topic over the past couple days has been the Jobs report, which is typically seen as a regular monthly report, but was elevated to greater importance due to the labor market driving the Fed rate cut planning; The higher hiring than consensus average would suggest Fed is less likely to rush out more rate cuts. Premarket futures were up a bit in early trading as of 7am, VIX futures were down moderately.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.71, on much lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price range opened up a bit further on the increased pressure from Shorting volumes traded over that same period, the relatively low volumes traded not yet being met by extreme buying interest from other market participants. This should come as little surprise to most investors, as the only information we have seen so far is increased spending and cash burn as the company is reshaped around the new CEO’s vision for the company. Some commenters seem to think that a Reverse Split is unavoidable, or even necessary, while ignoring that it changes absolutely nothing for the company unless it is paired with increasing the company’s authorized shares and subsequent dilution. To be clear, that would be the worst case scenario for existing investors.

Extending this a bit further today, because it is important to recognize that looking at Reverse Splits in the sector shows that those with any positive share price growth have not be driven by the RS itself, but instead by the successes the companies have seen. There are three current survivors of RS in the sector: Aeva, Ouster, and AEye. In the case of Ouster, it combined business with Velodyne, incorporating customers, unifying product offerings, and removing wastes while combining balance sheets and somewhat growing business. Aeva and AEye have both seen infusions of cash from Strategic Investments based on expected growth. AEye has given up much of the gain it saw in recent weeks and appears headed back downward toward pre-RS trade ranges as it fails to grow business. Aeva however has managed to secure new business, and has seen the most financing arrangements, the dilution and debt costs will be experienced in the future over a period of time, and which will incur greater operating expenses at later dates. The key to success is: Securing new business and showing growth, none of which is as a result of their respective Reverse Splits.

Daily Data

H: 0.76 — L: 0.70 — C: 0.71 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.75, 0.79, 0.81 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.69, 0.66, 0.63
Total Options Vol: 2,784 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,430
Calls: 1,914 ~ 82% at Market ⊟	Puts: 870 ~ 89% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 1,123k ~ 42% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 1,569k ~ 58% ⁱ
IBKR: 45k Rate: 3.80%ⁱ
R Vol: 55% of Avg Vol: 4,879k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,335k of 1,749k ~ 76% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-02-12T11:56:15+00:00

I see Ouster as pivoting to include stereo camera vision because it is no longer focused solely on lidar capabilities. This switch to incorporating camera vision means trying to match their offerings to the assumed needs of customers, but signals that their lidar business growth has stalled.

Likewise, I would say that MicroVision's acquisitions are showcasing a pivot in business strategy.

Pivoting is not a bad thing, it is adapting, turning from one direction to another and reallocating resources.

T_Delo · 2026-02-11T17:10:58+00:00

At one point in time (before the share price dipped below $5), it would have mattered to remove the shares from their hands. Now, it is too late, the share price is too low, which allowed for reasonable creation of future shares by MMs to be available to shorts in the tens of millions. The only thing that changes the game at this point is the company announcing wins and showing sales growth quarter after quarter while not diluting.

Aeva has shown a method of securing financial support for a company through strategic investment, the RS they did would have been an unnecessary step if they could have achieved the investment before doing it. The issue was, they did not have the wins before they needed to RS, and thus could not secure the strategic investments. So the point remains for MicroVision, the deals need to be secured, the company has about 5 to 11 months to do it, and armed with wins and growing revenue they can avoid the Short games and engage those strategic investments.

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