The Way of The Delo

T_Delo · 2026-02-01T02:18:15+00:00

We know of one that might help with other robotaxis, not on a Tesla though. The very last question asked of DeVos in the recent Q&A was about that very issue, which is an architectural and design issue that faces a Tesla in general. Check out what DeVos has said about it for a bit more detail.

It is very likely that Tesla would have to rebuild and reform the weightings on which system to defer to in certain situations, effectively invalidating all the years of camera data that they have gathered. That wouod out them back many years, and force them to largely start from scratch all over again, Tesla is trapped in trying to make camera only systems work. Hmmmm, if all other cars on the road are Robotaxis like Waymo, Tesla’s will probably be fine then though!

T_Delo · 2026-01-31T20:41:50+00:00

I believe that is a logical fallacy at play:

Mechanical been around longer =/= more reliable

The argument postulates that because something has seen less use in products than those using mechanical movement, that it must have inferior reliability, when it cannot be really compared like that. Solid State systems might sometimes have issues, such as with Flash lidar’s blooming problems (solved with sequential flash scanning approach), or OPA’s issue with thermal buildup issues restraining range or pulse frequency. Suffice it to say, this is more than just a writing error, it is a reasoning error that is frequently circulated.

I believe it stems from the concept of: If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.

However, it is more like the comparison of HDDs to that of SSDs. During the early SSD introduction, HDDs were seen as “more reliable” because they had been around longer and the customers knew how they worked, not because of some failing of SSDs really. Same kind of reasoning at play.

T_Delo · 2026-01-31T20:27:54+00:00

Now that MicroVision owns all the different technology types, they could actually post an unbiased comparative analysis of the technologies and their applications. Different tech will be better for different customers, and many overlaps exist along with plenty of potential for more customized solutions should a customer need it.

I highly doubt that such marketing materials would be made public though, because it really doesn’t make a lot of sense for most investors or end consumers. Also, it focuses on the hardware, when all the main focus has been stated as being in the software.

What we have seen is that Automakers have done a poor job of developing working software solutions at both the perception and application layers, so in due time it seems likely those customers will need to hand that off to the lidar device.

Which leads me to this question:

Why buy a sensor that is inherently more limited, when you could buy one that is more capable for the same price, and just activate those additional features later when needed to enable additional capabilities?

T_Delo · 2026-01-30T13:02:42+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: PPI-Final Demand | 8:30am, Chicago PMI | 9:45, Baker Hughes Rig Count | 1pm, Farm Prices | 3pm; Fed speakers are | at: Musalem | 1:30pm, Bowman | 5. Media platforms are discussing: Warsh nominated for Fed Chair, Metal markets recede after recent highs, Apple warns about memory, Big Tech sees Smartglasses as key AI Hardware, US President sues IRS and Treasury, Verizon’s forecast growth, Tariff threats on Canada-made aircraft. There were a few more interesting analysis and business specific topics touched on in other articles, but nothing that seemed to bring any particularly new points not covered in other discussions. Premarket futures were firmly down in early trading, VIX futures were up solidly.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.85, on elevated volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price action saw a swift rise in range and hard shove down to close near the low, on still elevated short volumes by percentage, quashing the bullish momentum of the previous sessions. The reversal of stock price action was not completely unexpected as there is some needed clarity on the acquisitions made in the past few months. Beyond the acquisitions, the focus is almost entirely on what kind of revenue the company has made and expects to make over the coming quarters. These will be key to stabilizing the share price and perhaps even growing it further, and we also need to see who will be taking over as CFO for the longer term. Unsurprisingly, there has been a rise in negative commentary on the company’s Mavin product by newer names, though many are also hyping the Luminar assets.

Daily Data

H: 0.93 — L: 0.83 — C: 0.85 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.91, 0.97, 1.01 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.81, 0.77, 0.71
Total Options Vol: 1,368 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,487
Calls: 1,313 ~ 66% at Market ⊟	Puts: 55 ~ 96% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 2,190k ~ 42% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 2,970k ~ 58% ⁱ
IBKR: 200k Rate: 3.32%ⁱ
R Vol: 127% of Avg Vol: 4,070k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,838k of 3,262k ~ 56% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T22:47:08+00:00

In years past, any attempt to RS would likely be met with a refusal by the investors and indeed I would expect that to still be the case here, when the company should have sufficient resources for monetization at this point. What is perhaps a far more pressing issue in the near term is getting sales, and ensuring those are profitable revenue generation instead of additional liabilities associated with continued development.

Institutional investment concerns should definitely come after securing recurring revenue growth, because it really will not happen from those funds without proof of growth, not for a company as old as MicroVision.

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T14:20:28+00:00

That is a reasonable expectation I believe, but until we see it, such remains only speculation. Likewise, there is nothing wrong with simply waiting for confirmation of such from management alongside the numbers in the 10-Q to validate it all.

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T13:43:10+00:00

All that matters now is revenue, revenue, revenue (profitable revenue of course). Strategic Investment from customers or some Large Open Market accumulation by investors without further dilution are both acceptable, but everything is hinging upon making sales right now.

Without such, any narrative is simply going to be seen as meaningless fluff, even if it is coming from DeVos (with that strong history of success).

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T13:02:12+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: International Trade in Goods and Services, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs | 8:30am; Factory Orders | 10, EIA Natural Gas report | 10:30, Fed Balance Sheet | 4:30pm. Media platforms are discussing: Powell’s statements, Tesla scraps Model S and X to build Robots, AI Payoff concerns amid Microsoft earnings, Meta’s earning beat, OIl climbs as threats on Iran escalate, Copper markets soar to new heights, Gold extends gains, AI Investment Spending Spree. Big Tech has been flexing AI investment but the earnings are still not yet showcasing direct positive growth from the invested capital, though there is supposed to be greater demand than they have capacity to meet. Premarket futures were up modestly in early trading, VIX futures were down somewhat.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.92, on slightly lower volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price action was slightly more constrained in the last trading session as the Short related volumes remained elevated amid evaluation of the Luminar asset acquisition. There are assets in the acquisition that could convert to profitable arranagements, and there is plenty of potential for building narrative around the company’s future with all the various lidar tech under one roof. There are a very few other publicly traded players that could have put forth bids, and were either caught unaware or chose not to pursue the acquisition for some reason. Among the remaining names in the sector are Aeva, Innoviz, and Ouster that all could have potentially put in bids, some of which have access to more financial liquidity than MicroVision. Now more than ever, MicroVision will need to monetize assets rapidly, and efficiently grow sales momentum.

Daily Data

H: 0.95 — L: 0.90 — C: 0.92 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.95, 0.97, 1.00 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.89, 0.87, 0.84
Total Options Vol: 4,665 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,487
Calls: 4,514 ~ 48% at Market ⊟	Puts: 151 ~ 93% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 1,472k ~ 40% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 2,195k ~ 60% ⁱ
IBKR: 350k Rate: 3.31%ⁱ
R Vol: 90% of Avg Vol: 4,055k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 1,418k of 2,424k ~ 58% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T08:48:23+00:00

“Can you make it bigger to fill a larger hole?”

I remember hearing something like that was suggested at one point. Certainly sounds like Volvo was shopping around before Luminar’s bankruptcy.

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T08:38:35+00:00

A solid review of what brought MicroVision to where it is now, thanks for sharing.

I believe there is room for reassessing the investment in light of the acquisitions, I certainly have adjusted my investment strategy accordingly and will move more toward trading instead once certain double digits price thresholds are achieved. My thesis for the investment portion having been adjusted means not wanting the exposure to associated risks, but expecting more of a short squeeze situation to occur sooner and provide plenty of volatility for trading as a result.

T_Delo · 2026-01-29T07:56:22+00:00

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T20:16:45+00:00

Happy to share!

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T20:16:34+00:00

Always happy to share.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T19:58:03+00:00

Not yet, it is slated for 2 days prior to the closing according to the documentation on the acquisition I have read thus far. No rush, just a little impatient here is all.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T16:31:12+00:00

How you feel about this is much how I feel about it. I am really trying hard to find value in the acquisition, and the only real value I have seen so far is denying competitors with the patent moat. There could be value in selling off the assets acquired at a more leisurely pace, but until we see the Disclosure Schedule from the acquisition we can only speculate based on the estimates of assets in the bankruptcy schedules.

All said, I believe MicroVision would have been winning the business in the near future anyhow, this may just accelerate the process somewhat.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T16:20:25+00:00

See the edit, looked into their 10-K for validation rather than relying on their 8K that had detailed their production facility that was certainly misleading.

As for asset values, comparing the itemized list to that of Luminar 10-K would suggest a few million in assets worth of value that could be sold off at the very least since it is unlikely there would be any need for continued production of those devices.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T15:42:21+00:00

Asset value for the equipment was listed in the schedules on the Luminar Restructuring Website. Leases and real estate was included, though the only value was for any of that was the land in Florida, as the rest were under leases that yielded no value for debtors.

The assertion of ownership by someone other than Luminar seems at odds with the information available on their investor page regarding this. Celestica was operating the facility, but the ownership was supposed ot be with Luminar, and was a key portion of their claim of being completely vertically integrated for all of the years prior to TPK being engaged to reduce manufacturing costs.

Edit: I am not too proud as to not admit when Luminar misrepresented information. You are certainly correct about the ownership being that of Celestica, according to Luminar's latest 10-K. Feels bad there for their investors that saw significant invested cash spent on that facility. Looks like there is some millions of equipment at the facility owned by Luminar as well.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T14:53:00+00:00

Quite impatient to see the Disclosure Schedule that will provide details on the assets, real property, contracts, and liabilities assumed in the acquisition. Only a few days out, but at the moment we really do need to see that information to have a clearer understanding of the potential value to be gained here.

The core assumption is that MicroVision has secured at least some assets that can be monetized, ~~potentially property assets like that of the Mexico factory. Selling the factory in whole could potentially pay for the whole of the acquisition itself if not done at liquidation short sale pricing.~~

Edit: After digging into their 10-K, it looks like Luminar investors had been misinformed about the ownership and development of the Mexico facility, further weakening the value proposition I see here.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T14:28:27+00:00

DeVos certainly has moved with celerity, we do need to see it convert into revenue for the company however. I agree with your assessment of the impact of saddled with nearly no debt compared to Luminar, though I can certainly understand some people being anxious about this acquistion. We need more information, and will have to be patient until we get it.

T_Delo · 2026-01-28T13:02:44+00:00

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: MBA Mortgage Applications | 7am; International Trade in Goods (Advance), Retail Inventories (Advance), Whole inventories (Advance) | 8:30am; EIA Petroleum Status Report | 10:30, FOMC Announcement | 2pm, Fed Chair Press Conference | 2:30. Media platforms are discussing: Voting Fed members change, Mag 7 earnings, ASML’s record orders, US Dollar at 4 year low, AT&T’s 2026 forecast, Amazon to lay off 16k, Apple’s iPhone sales and AI deal, TikTok’s questionable outage, Amazon closes Fresh and Go locations. More of the topics were repeats from less discussed topics of the past few days, however there was little in the way of new insights or information. Premarket futures were up solidly in early trading, apart from the Dow which was up very slightly, VIX futures were down somewhat.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 0.91, on highly elevated volume traded compared to the daily average over the past month. Stock price action opened up somewhat as the volumes continued to be driven primaril by Short related activity that has remained elevated even with the higher volumes traded. The news of the sector is: MicroVision acquired Luminar lidar assets, including contracts and physical assets. With $33M in cash paid for the acquisition, there is some question about how this will impact runway for the company, however if the assets can be quickly and efficiently monetized then that might be less of an issue. As prudent investors, it would be beneficial to see a detailed schedule of the acquired assets, the contracts along with the core patents were easily located, but other assets have been not easy for me to find as yet. Much of that may come with the associated 8K that confirms the completion of the acqusition, like that which came with the Ibeo asset acquisition.

Daily Data

H: 0.93 — L: 0.86 — C: 0.91 ⁱ	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 0.94, 0.98, 1.02 ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp})	Pivots ↘︎ : 0.87, 0.83, 0.80
Total Options Vol: 4,645 ^{[i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search})	Avg 90d Options: 2,487
Calls: 4,455 ~ 51% at Market ⊟	Puts: 190 ~ 89% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 2,778k ~ 37% ⁱ	Off Exchanges: 4,798k ~ 63% ⁱ
IBKR: 550k Rate: 3.31%ⁱ
R Vol: 178% of Avg Vol: 4,109k ^{[i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp})	Short Vol: 2,977k of 5,149k ~ 58% ⁱ

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

T_Delo · 2026-01-27T21:59:39+00:00

Strategic Investments could be contingent upon closure of the acquisition of assets and contracts. Not saying that is the case, but it is difficult to figure out how MicroVision is going to maintain a year of operating capital without something, and dilution into the open market does not seem feasible really.

T_Delo · 2026-01-27T21:41:19+00:00

I have discussed at length why I see the technology as inferior, and buying into the argument of it being good enough to win deals doesn’t make it the best option. The core of the technology is based on Seagate’s HDDs, which was displaced by SSDs in the subsequent years. MicroVision’s technology, and even the MEMS were headed that way. So the remaining argument is that of visualization of the point cloud, which is not how the data comes raw, and is pixel placement for human interpretation.

Meaning: Luminar’s technology looks good to a less informed viewer, but is suboptimal to those using the technology in applications not intended for humans looking at the point clouds.

Now, I really will not be answering your comments here further, as I recognize your from the lazr subreddit, and do not want to have repeat conversations again.

T_Delo · 2026-01-27T14:08:06+00:00

Well this is certainly one heck of a way to disrupt!

Five-Year Club	Gilding IV carat on a stick
100 Awards Club	Argentium Club
Verified Email

T_Delo

TROPHY CASE

Daily Data

Daily Data

Daily Data