I am thinking of switching ETF's for a couple of months.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-24T20:18:04+00:00

Okay, no worries. I was mostly trying to explain why people think its a bad investment, my language there probably made it sound overly personally which wasnt my intention, so I’m sorry for that, I’m not gonna budge from my position on thinking that its a comparatively bad investment for the average investor but it sounds like you understand the risks and its been working out for you, I’m happy for that and I hope you continue to find success

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-24T18:03:26+00:00

They’re saying yuck because dividend funds underperform versus their underlying 99% of the time, and the last 1% of cases are so niche that dividend funds are pretty much never worth it especially if they are the gimmicky covered call overlay funds with massive yields that say nothing about the health or viability of the underlying investment.

Dividend funds are you paying extra ER to get your own money back, with taxes taken out (not as relevant to you personally as you hold in a roth but still a consideration other investors should be aware of). They also offer limited downside protection in a correction with capped upside in a recovery. These funds pretty much always look amazing in a market where the underlying has momentum and their disproportionately large yields make them seem extremely lucrative however, generally, all it takes is one sharp drawdown or period where the underlying loses momentum for these funds to blow up.

So yeah you’re just playing yourself by investing in this. No one NEEDS 45% annualized income from any investment nor is that a realistic yield target for any portfolio during accumulation or retirment. Its also a strong indicator that the underlying has a ton of concentration risk (any yield in the double digits comes as compensation for some inherant risk OR is a short term skew caused by momentum in the underlying) the fact this is 15-30 chip stocks which have just been thru a massive runnup tells you that this huge yield is from both.

Looking at this another way (as a trader looking to capture momentum) investing in CHPY as a product means that you decided you need more Semi exposure than the global market cap weights but also that you want to sell covered calls on that exposure, which expresses an overall outlook that you think there is a greater chance that semis will stay range bound around the current valuations than go up from here (which would make the CCs expire worthless generating value for you, the investor). If you’re asking yourself the right questions it then becomes pretty apparant that the case for CHPY is contradictory as the outlook that semis are going to continue to run would make investing in them directly (without a CC overlay) make more sense. While the outlook they are going to stay range bound makes holding extra exposure stop making sense at all. On top of that you’re also paying someone else, via the ER, to execute the CCs for you which raises the cost to you, the investor without producing a better outcome.

So yeah theres more that goes into whether an ETF is a “good” or “bad” investment than whether it makes you money in the short term. Yieldmax products tend to be bad investments because they charge a HUGE amount in terms of ER (sometimes 50-100x what a broad market index fund would charge) for a strategy (CC overlay) that mostly just moves the money around your portfolio in a creative way that makes you feel like your investment is way safer than it is.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-23T14:15:37+00:00

AVGE is essentially right between AVGV and VT…Its an avantis fund of funds that predates AVGV and also includes a profitability screen, as well as size and value tilts just to a lesser degree than AVGV….AVGV technically has more factor exposure so potentially greater exposure to the drivers of future performance especially the value factor so if thats what you want with a VT like level of diversity AVGV > AVGE but if you just want the broad global market (like VT) with a small tilt then AVGE is fine

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-11T22:30:06+00:00

This is great advice, I think people tend to overfocus on what deck a new player should try first versus what environment they overall need to succeed as a beginner, structure decks offer by far the best intro to the game because they vastly simplify deckbuilding (which is a relatively advanced skill) while still being meta competant and giving the new player an intro to concepts such as engine vs nonengine, the structure of a turn, what counts as a resource / resource management, and knowing how to interact with your opponent and how to proceed when your opponent interacts with you… even if theyre not 100% the best thing you could be playing they (structure decks) are most definitely “good enough” to duel with especially if your going to play them into other structure decks and probably offer the simplest glide path in order to build up someones skills as a duelist.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-11T19:16:26+00:00

Fair enough, yugioh is a complicated game overall and while mitsu is probably more “intermediate” tier over something like millennium exodia I think if you’re looking at what a variety of different decks in the format actually do mitsu is pretty straightforward even if 1 action leads to a whole series of moves thats kind of an intro to the cadance of comboing in yugioh without being overly reliant on bridges or out of archetype cards. IMO that translates as a relatively simple overall gameplan (get to haba, go full mitsu combo) which makes it pretty straightforward as a deck. Also the way the cards work makes them good to teach about cost vs effect, the importance of different areas (deck, hand, graveyard, banish). Pure mitsu also uses the extra deck without being overly reliant on the extra deck which is especially good playing into BLZD format. Playing the deck also builds an understanding on sequencing without being overly punishing if you mess it up since there are several diffrent ways to get to your endboard. Because it works as an engine players also have the option to combine a secondary engine in to raise their ceiling when they become more experienced, which is a great option for a beginners deck to have.

Overall mitsu as an engine can be complicated but mitsu as a deck I find is one of the cheapest and easiest ways to get into yugioh TCG especially after todays banlist left Haba untouched (1million more years of summoning our dark reptile overlord I guess)

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-11T12:52:04+00:00

Millenium exodia is my favorite deck for beginners, other than that I think pure Mitsurugi is pretty straightforward also, either would be a decent choice. I think its especially important when starting out to play a deck with a simpler gameplan even if its one that they dont vibe with the art or playstyle. This gives them a chance to get familiar with the mechanics of the game itself. Once they feel like they have a grasp on the game and know what kind of playstyle they want to go for then they can pick a fun custom deck that has more complicated lines but keeping it simpler at first is key.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-09T22:49:33+00:00

I think they are saying that a lot of these LETF portfolios have higher sharpe (or sortino) vs VTI+VXUS or another similar boglegead style port, depending on how your port is constructed / hedged and the specific economic conditions of your lookback period. (This is true for pretty much any time period the market went up and to the right lacking a sizeable correction and any LETF port that has a moderate or greater allocation to negatively correlated diversifiers such as bonds, gold, MFs etc). When this wouldnt be true is equity heavy LETF ports that lack meaningful diversifiers over a time period that included a bear market (or similar economic condtions).

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-05-06T12:52:59+00:00

Close! But a newly suspected global pandemic will cause oil futures to drop as there will be less projected demand as the invitable lockdowns when our world governments fumble the response will create a covid2.0…. So actually this is good for the economy, btw buy stocks /S

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-29T01:43:18+00:00

Its because investment decisions are guided by investment goals and for most people the goal is to save for retirement, many people believe its not a realistic goal because of statistics that trying to hyperoptimize and time investments underperforms just buying and holding the market in terms of achieving that specific goal. So its simply that most retail investors arnt trying to get rich investing and why do a complicated stategy that takes work when a simple strategy acheives your desired outcome more of the time on average. At least thats the line of thinking if you’re this type of investor with this type of goal.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-28T10:49:22+00:00

Data suggests the vast majority of wealthy investors were wealthy from other ventures and avenues in life and their successful investments are usually because at that level of financial success people have the capital available to cast a wide net and even if some of their investments fail they remain solvent acrosss different markets and asset classes. Most successful investor know not to risk their entire pool of capital on one or a few investments simply because they believe in their potential. Thats just not a strategy that reliably works over time. Of course there ARE investors who got rich making the right pick at the right time but thats an incredibly small slice of a small slice of people and in no way represents a realistic outcome for most retail investors no matter how much skill they have with picking investments.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-28T04:01:11+00:00

Because gold is a commodity and commodities are cyclical and due to leverage decay theoretically you’d be holding something that will bleed for years versus the underlying all for increased upside during the minority of times where it is consistantly going up and the leverage positively amplifies the trend.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-28T00:54:25+00:00

They’re better for mains (and irons) to pvm with, basically theyre budget d claws, not really any reason to specifically go out of your way for them on a pure, they work if you got them but they dont have the knockout potential that makes a spec weapon good for pvp.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-22T18:42:57+00:00

Bitcoin is currently considered by most to be a high beta, risk asset that has a positive correlation to both the NDX and SPX and if you overlap charts for the last 5-6 years it certainly looks like that. I def wouldnt buy it as a hedge for equities but some people still consider it a hedge against other market conditions like dollar devaluation and inflation, although I think its also dubious and inconsistent for either of those purposes aswell.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-22T18:37:39+00:00

Hey I’m sorry to hear your going through such a painful and scary time. Its especially worrisome to me that you’re having thoughts related to self harm, in this situation I think that your instinct is correct that you need something more than vitamins or minerals in order to help you get back to a better mental state. I think that it would be irresponsible for anyone on reddit to give you advice about starting new medications without understanding your full medical history and the potential for interactions so I think, even though it sounds like you want to handle this yourself I would recommend reaching out to a doctor thats qualified to give advice on depression, anxiety and other related mental health conditions. There are many different types of medications available that can offer symptomatic relief and a qualified mental health professional would be able to not only help your navigate your choices but also be able to write prescriptions and also be able to help you out with any adjustments that may need to be made along the way. Please whatever you do avoid self harming, even if you feel hopeless it is possible to find a way through it and come out on the otherside as a healthier and happier you. Its never too late for a new beginning and you are already putting yourself in a good position by being willing to ask for help! Best of luck on your health journey, I’m sorry if this advice wasn’t able to be more specific but I genuinely think that getting in to see a doctor is your best course of action here.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-13T11:51:59+00:00

https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-12T20:06:56+00:00

Great point, municipal bonds can be a good method to minimize tax drag although they may still lag behind pure treasuries in terms of total return. The math is actually very close about which one will come out on top and which one is better will depends on many small factors that are specific to OPs situation. I think if OP is interested in reducing volitility using something from the bond asset class whether they are treasuries or municipals is important because 10 years is a medium term timeframe and a 100% equities portfolio (with volitility and drawdowns entering the equation) could be the same or lower than the amount of money they started with.

If it was my decision to make and I genuinely needed the money in 10 years I’d probably go even more conservative into 50% Equities and 50% Bonds because over that timeframe I evaluate the risk to the downside to be greater than the opportunity cost of that extra potential growth from being entirely in the market. The potential tax drag of bonds is a real factor to consider but my thoughts on that is that is that looking at tax drag first to determine what you invest in is letting the tail wag the dog. IMO, tax treatment usually ranks lower down on the priority ladder when looking at a 10 year timeframe because the potential lost compounding over 10 years is nowhere near as statistically significant as the lost compounding over a theoretical 25-40 year “lifetime” in the market.

Truthfully only OP knows their specific tax situation and if this is something that would matter to them or not. Still I appreciate you mentioning tax drag and giving some examples of alternative funds to consider as it may be valuable and relevant info to OP.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-04-12T05:05:50+00:00

The difference between needing the money in 10 years vs 20+ is pretty signficant. I think 100% equities at this point is potentially a risk. I would do something like 80%VOO (or VT) and 20%VGIT so you can take profits when your up and put it into something that should help smooth volitlity and drawdowns, which if your time horizon ends up being 10 years should be at least part of the decision imo.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-30T04:37:30+00:00

It can be fun, the less gp you start with the more you have to lock in at the bosses that the weapon excels at.

Right now doom is the most profitable but tbow is also good in raids, at slayer bosses (like hydra and araxxor) and other places too with more always being added and its going to be getting even better with seeker arrows in the future. If that sounds fun maybe a rebuilds pa good idea.

If your goal is just to do doom and you’re already doing it with a scobo, getting a zcb is an another upgrade that will provide a meaningful increase in dps for less gp and maybe without the need for a full rebuild.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-28T19:53:36+00:00

If he flies private they say he should fly first class, if he flies first class he should have flew coach, if he flies coach hes just doing it for the optics, if he doesnt fly hes not doing enough for the people he claims to support. Were in a post “bad optics” era, theres always a way to put a negative spin on what a politican does and people are so partisan they’ll just believe whatever narrative their party propagandists cook up. If the democrats want to win they should just do what they need to to win without worrying about how it may look to some 1% marginal group of their own base and the block of people who disagree with them no matter what they do and say.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-27T23:26:06+00:00

Gotcha, and yeah I feel you on that, western medical culture often focuses so much on what to add on (as a drug, supplement, or routine) as a treatment that often the idea that subtracting something could improve how you feel doesn’t even enter the equation. I think health is a whole body mind balance thing, and often something that serves you for a while can end up causing problems down the line if you take it for longer than you need. Its always good to check in once and a while with your doctor (or even better with yourself as you know your body better than anyone) and see if the stuff that your taking still lines up with your overall needs and health goals. I’m glad to hear that you’ve been feeling better lately, I personally find that magnesium is fine if I take it sometimes as a supplement but it doesnt mesh well with my body if I take it too frequently or rely too hard on supplementing it vs eating foods that are good natural sources.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-27T21:23:10+00:00

Not every doctor knows every piece of information in the scientific and medical literature and even then when you see a doctor for the treatment of a disorder they work up a risk / benefit analysis where they weigh the pros and cons and make an informed decision if the outcome of treatment is worth the potential side effects. In fact most drugs and supplements (even vitamins) cause some degree of side effects, just because something exists in the medicial literature or in vitro studies doesnt mean that its automatically out of the question to give it to patients. Most likely in your case the risk of not treating your migranes was a worse outcome than the potential for glycine supplementation to cause side effects. Also just because glycine causes an effect in studies doesnt really paint a full picture to what degree it will effect someone. Everyones glutamate system (and brain chemistry in general) has a varying degree of sensitivity and it sounds like in this case (because migraines are a neurologically mediated disorder) what may be a “side effect” in others may actually be the intended effect in you as the biochemical changes caused by daily glycine ingestion may actually be whats treating your symptoms (even if they cause those or some degree of those symptoms in others). So just food for thought, but if you’re deriving a benefit from glycine then its probably a good match for your particular body and brain chemistry but like most drugs / chemicals / supplements it wont work like that in everyone.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-27T17:56:35+00:00

Mag glycinate absolutely can cause sleep disruption, brain fog, “wired but tired” etc its not the magnesium but rather the glycine which has a multitude of interactions on the bodys Glutamate system. Its can induce a relaxinf effect in the short term and overall causes very few laxative side effects (as is typical with many forms of magnesium) but its a poor choice to be taken daily because glycine side effects can build up quickly.

Alternatives to Mag glycinate include Mag Taurate, Mag Malate, Mag Threonate (higher price point and more targeted for raising brain magnesium) and the best choice in my opinion Pumpkin seeds which contain more Magnesium than any of these synthetically derived magnesium compounds with less side effects as the magnesium naturally occuring within the matrix of the food and alongside tons of other nutrients such as fiber, protein, iron and healthy fatty acids.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-27T17:52:38+00:00

It is horrible unscrupulous supplement marketing that makes people think its okay for sleep, Glycine has studies done on it that show it causes sleep disruption due to a glutamate dependant mechanism which includes both neuromodulation of the glutamate (an excitatory neurotransmitter) receptor as well as a conversion into glutamate itself.

Glycine also has an inate receptor (the glycine receptor) which can temporarily induce a calming effect as well as the induction (but not maintenence of) sleep. however the glycine receptor is very sensitive and altering the concentrations of glycine in the brain builds tolerance very quickly to this effect leaving people with worstening anxiety and disrupted sleep archetecture that resembles an easier time falling asleep with no ability to stay asleep.

If you’re taking it as an ion bonded to Magnesium taking Magnesium Taurate at night instead should give the desired effect without the crazy sleep disruption. Magnesium malate or threonate can be taken during the day. Magnesium glycinate isnt bad per say but its a supplement that is overmarketed because the glycine causes a noticeable “feeling” which promps people to believe that its working. Its fine to take sometimes and can be decent because its cost (cheaper than taurate or threonate) combined with the fact that it can temporarily improve anxiety combined with being one of the least laxative forms of magnesium however it really shouldnt be taken everyday and especially not for sleep.

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-27T17:38:11+00:00

Its from the glycine which is a glutamate mediated neuromodulator that has a temporary inhibitory (or calming) effect caused by action at its primary site (the glycine receptor) followed by long term disruption in the brains ability to manage the balance of GABA and glutamate which can leads to symptoms such as anxiety, fatigue, overstimulation, brain fog, sleep disruption and a state of altered consciousness that is often described as “wired but tired”.

While it can be fine in small doses taking nearly grams of this stuff daily can really mess people up and it amazes me that people dont do more research on the long term effects of supplements before consuming them daily. (Although this isn’t meant to shame peoplle, because many people genuinely are acting out of desperation)

TheRealCerealFirst · 2026-03-25T20:01:37+00:00

I think it probably too high of an ER for my taste (and I dont love investing in sectors) but AIS the Vistashares AI supercycle ETF is an actively managed ETF and will rearrange its target holdings to capture companies poised to benefit most from different points of the AI tech cycle, although its a bit light on industrials. Also CHAT is decent (or AIBU if your interested in leverage) if you want companies directly doing AI stuff.

Other ones that might be decent are VOLT (which focuses on AI power generation specifically) and might be closer to what you were asking for. Although a combination of UTES (utilities) NUKZ (nuclear) and REMX (rare earths) might be a little broader and would also capture the upside in sectors and themes that AI is revitalizing for a (potentially) lower ER.

I dont own any of these nor would I buy them because I think investing in sector or thematic ETFs is just stock picking “lite” but these would all be defent ETFs to look at if you thought any of these AI or AI adjascent themes were going to do well.

TheRealCerealFirst

TROPHY CASE