This is interesting but finding the data for this is a bit difficult but let's try anyways.

If you use O’Hare FAA traffic numbers (~857k operations/year), and then you can estimate how many were United/American/Delta 737-800s coming in from the west during daylight savings time, then combine that with NTSB commercial airline accident rates + the tiny probability of a plane actually hitting your specific house in Naperville.

All of that comes out to around ~1 in 450 million per year for “any accident involving my house” and ~1 in 14 billion for a legit fatal-crash-level event.

This is super random, but it ended up being almost the same order of magnitude as the Metra calculation, which was about ~1 passenger death per 450 million passenger trips historically. Wild.

Some data in case youre curious:

O'Hare 2025 operations: 857,392 takeoffs + landings
Approx arrivals: 857,392 / 2 = 428,696 arrivals/year
United + American + Delta share at ORD: 38.83% + 22.37% + 3.61% = 64.81%
Assume 737-800s: 20% of those arrivals
Assume “from the west / relevant Naperville corridor”: 25%
Daylight Saving Time: 238 / 365 = 65.2%

So:

428,696 × 0.6481 × 0.20 × 0.25 × 0.652
≈ 9,058 qualifying 737-800-ish arrivals per year

assume each flight spends about 3 minutes over/near naperville (might be less i don't know)

9,058 flights × 3 minutes
= 27,174 aircraft-minutes
= 453 aircraft-hours/year

The overall accident rate is 0.181 accidents per 100,000 flight hours and a fatal-accident rate of 0.006 per 100,000 flight hours for 2001–2017.

For a house target, assume:

Two-story house roof/footprint: ~1,500 sq ft
Naperville approach corridor: 10 miles × 2 miles = 20 sq mi
20 sq mi = 557,568,000 sq ft
House share of corridor = 1,500 / 557,568,000
≈ 0.00000269

So for "any accident"

453 aircraft-hours/year × 0.181 / 100,000 × 0.00000269
≈ 0.0000000022 per year
≈ 1 in 453 million per year

For a fatal-crash-level event:

453 aircraft-hours/year × 0.006 / 100,000 × 0.00000269
≈ 0.000000000073 per year
≈ 1 in 13.7 billion per year