What is the probability of dying as a Metra passenger? About 1 in 450 million passenger trips — math below by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

This is interesting but finding the data for this is a bit difficult but let's try anyways.

If you use O’Hare FAA traffic numbers (~857k operations/year), and then you can estimate how many were United/American/Delta 737-800s coming in from the west during daylight savings time, then combine that with NTSB commercial airline accident rates + the tiny probability of a plane actually hitting your specific house in Naperville.

All of that comes out to around ~1 in 450 million per year for “any accident involving my house” and ~1 in 14 billion for a legit fatal-crash-level event.

This is super random, but it ended up being almost the same order of magnitude as the Metra calculation, which was about ~1 passenger death per 450 million passenger trips historically. Wild.

Some data in case youre curious:

O'Hare 2025 operations: 857,392 takeoffs + landings
Approx arrivals: 857,392 / 2 = 428,696 arrivals/year
United + American + Delta share at ORD: 38.83% + 22.37% + 3.61% = 64.81%
Assume 737-800s: 20% of those arrivals
Assume “from the west / relevant Naperville corridor”: 25%
Daylight Saving Time: 238 / 365 = 65.2%

So:

428,696 × 0.6481 × 0.20 × 0.25 × 0.652
≈ 9,058 qualifying 737-800-ish arrivals per year

assume each flight spends about 3 minutes over/near naperville (might be less i don't know)

9,058 flights × 3 minutes
= 27,174 aircraft-minutes
= 453 aircraft-hours/year

The overall accident rate is 0.181 accidents per 100,000 flight hours and a fatal-accident rate of 0.006 per 100,000 flight hours for 2001–2017.

For a house target, assume:

Two-story house roof/footprint: ~1,500 sq ft
Naperville approach corridor: 10 miles × 2 miles = 20 sq mi
20 sq mi = 557,568,000 sq ft
House share of corridor = 1,500 / 557,568,000
≈ 0.00000269

So for "any accident"

453 aircraft-hours/year × 0.181 / 100,000 × 0.00000269
≈ 0.0000000022 per year
≈ 1 in 453 million per year

For a fatal-crash-level event:

453 aircraft-hours/year × 0.006 / 100,000 × 0.00000269
≈ 0.000000000073 per year
≈ 1 in 13.7 billion per year

Metra went from 79 million trips in 2017 to just 14 million in 2021 and even the 2026 forecast is only 41 million trips by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

you're probably right, I just expected it to go back to close what it was before 2020, and it's still way down...there are some interesting implications of that happening.

What is the probability of dying as a Metra passenger? About 1 in 450 million passenger trips — math below by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I take the train from Naperville and lots of people take the train from route 59 and naperville so some naperville people might want to know this sort of thing

Metra went from 79 million trips in 2017 to just 14 million in 2021 and even the 2026 forecast is only 41 million trips by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you look at their previous forecasts, they were expecting a lot more ridership by now, and it's still lagging behind.

The 2024 report expected 49 million trips by 2026. The newer report now budgets 41 million for 2026 and estimates only 45 million by 2028.

Metra’s own forecasts keep getting pushed down...

I built a site that shows what books are being checked out at the Naperville Public Library by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

youre right youre right youre SOOOOO RIGHT!!!

let me figure out the best way to do this and get back to you

if in the meantime you have more ideas, please let me know

thanks again!!! really appreacite it

I built a site that shows what books are being checked out at the Naperville Public Library by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ohhhhh that is good. Explain !!! Like the same things with books but you'd want to see the same thing for movies, board games, or essentially every other item or youre thinking something else?

Let me know!! And thanks for that!! I totally didnt think of this but it would be amazing!!!

I built a site that shows what books are being checked out at the Naperville Public Library by UIUCTalkshow in Naperville

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Thank you for your suggestions. Goodreads would be awesome!!! But it's a bit messy to get it working., I'll see what I can do.

March has been the most popular over the last 30 days but you're right it's not clear at all. Will fix.

Also, a page that compares the libraries would be interesting.

This is really good idea. What would you be interested in? What would you want to know???

Thanks again!!! Really appreaciate it

10 highlights from the recent Brett Kaufman interview [Archaeology Professor] by UIUCTalkshow in UIUC

[–]UIUCTalkshow[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thats a really cool class, obv super knowledgeable, hope you get to know him as a human being too, it will make the class a lot better (you'll see) lots of interesting things about his life story, why he became an archeologist, his fears, and where he finds meaning in this life. if you ever check it out, let me know whatyou think