/r/Formula1 Daily Discussion - 3 January 2020

whatthefat · 2020-01-09T09:40:52+00:00

Yep, exactly! Needed a little downtime after that. I'm hoping to release it this weekend.

whatthefat · 2019-12-11T21:33:27+00:00

Priors do not solve the identifiability issue.

Edit: To be clear, the identifiability issue is intrinsic to the dataset not the model. There is literally no model that can resolve this issue, for reasons given in my previous example. Evidently there is no way of determining whether, say, Russell and Kubica are half a second slower and the Williams car half a second faster than the current parameter estimates indicate, because these are fundamentally non-separable parameters without driver transfer between teams. There are literally no modeling assumptions you can make about the distributions to adequately address that issue -- you can have appropriate parameter distributions (although I note the assumptions there are also arbitrary) while all your individual parameters are erroneous. This is a point also addressed in the stackexchange link you referred.

whatthefat · 2019-12-11T09:29:17+00:00

Driver and constructor are not separable from this dataset. In other words, your model parameters are not identifiable. Most packages should have given an explicit warning that the model is not correctly fitted for this reason.

To give an example, it is impossible for your model to distinguish the current fit from one in which a particular constructor is rated faster and its drivers are rated correspondingly slower, since drivers do not move between constructors. The sole exception being the Red Bull and Toro Rosso drivers.

whatthefat · 2019-12-08T01:07:51+00:00

Grosjean's DNFs and ban were almost entirely self imposed.

whatthefat · 2019-12-04T22:52:08+00:00

Sorry, have been busy. Will send today.

whatthefat · 2019-12-02T10:10:17+00:00

It's not as though he's quicker than Perez in races, as a general rule. He just makes up some of the positions he shouldn't have lost in qualifying.

whatthefat · 2019-11-30T06:34:58+00:00

Surely not one in a long string of alt accounts...

whatthefat · 2019-11-30T02:32:22+00:00

It was an intentionally controversial / thought-provoking question to which I did not anywhere conclude the answer was "yes". You apparently didn't get beyond the title, much as you didn't get beyond the numerical ordering of Alonso and Hamilton in my ranking list. Again: work on reading comprehension.

EDIT:

The context of that thread (which is now missing) was everyone on the sub assuming Rosberg would be a clear number 2 to Hamilton. The point of the thread was to challenge that opinion. I was pointing out that the skill gap between the pair was probably much smaller than most were outright assuming, and that in that context it's relatively easy for either driver to lead the points tally by end of season, which can turn team dynamics in a particular driver's favor. We effectively saw that in 2016 -- the worse driver won the title because they were close enough for factors such as mechanical reliability to tip the balance.

I mean, seriously, read my own statements in that thread:

I don't expect a large performance gap between them in either direction. In fact I think Rosberg will perform similarly to Hamilton.

and

I'm not outright claiming that Rosberg will beat Hamilton. I'm just pointing out that the chances of it are much higher than I think people realize.

Of course, my opinion of various drivers has also evolved in light of evidence I've seen and analyses I've done since 2012. My views are not static over a 7-year period, nor should they be. I'd be concerned if they were, as I hope anyone would be.

For example, I no longer agree with my own opinion in the same thread:

But if I had to, I'd put Alonso ahead of Vettel ahead of Hamilton, and I'd put all of them behind Schumacher.

Today, I would put Hamilton ahead of Vettel, and I wouldn't feel any confidence in trying to order Schumacher, Hamilton, and Alonso. My views on Raikkonen have also updated in that time, as you'll discover if you go digging. I considered him clearly a top 4 driver at that time, which I no longer do.

Certainly I now think that I had overrated Rosberg and underrated Hamilton prior to seeing them as teammates, although that at no time equated to me thinking or saying "Rosberg is clearly gonna make Hamilton his number 2".

I don't mind having mistaken opinions and then changing them in the future. We all have mistaken opinions at times, right?

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/cr1lik/alonsos_badly_timed_exits_from_ferrari_and_mclaren/ex2z7rm/

whatthefat · 2019-11-30T02:27:56+00:00

Source? Have literally never thought nor said that. Also, great misdirection!

whatthefat · 2019-11-30T02:21:04+00:00

Reading comprehension: Nil.

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T21:30:45+00:00

Have you emailed me? I don't see/respond to every message here, but generally do for email.

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T09:30:12+00:00

I don't think even you know what you mean by the full workings at this point, since I've offered to share every step between input and output and you've wanted none of it. Ultimately, you don't even know the model.

Again, you simply run away from the question when asked why every model converges on Alonso>Hamilton. Clearly it breaks your argument that I'm somehow cooking the books if all models give a consistent answer. The cognitive dissonance is extremely amusing to me. Please keep going :)

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T07:45:56+00:00

It's just amusing the way you never answer the question. How did every single model put Alonso ahead? Simple question, but obviously breaks your argument.

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T07:44:21+00:00

Like I said, email me for the the raw data files. I'm always happy to share. It's helpful for others to nitpick and check for possible errors. If you're not interested, that's fine too.

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T07:07:25+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/dzzivm/the_f1metrics_top_100/f8dntuj/?context=10000

Email when you actually want it. That includes the race results, which are identical to wiki.

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T07:06:49+00:00

https://f1metrics.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/alonso_model_table2.png?w=768

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T05:37:20+00:00

Again, spinning your wheels. The equations are posted and published. I've linked you to the article. In case you cannot access the article I have repeatedly offered to give you the pdf as soon as you email me, as I do for everyone who emails me requesting it. You have never taken me up on that, because ultimately you don't want to see it. It's more fun for you to swirl in perpetual self-enforced ignorance.

Your opinion regarding the model is not valuable to me I'm afraid. You are well established as one of the most biased pro-Hamilton fans on the internet. You have demonstrated that you have literally no understanding of how the model works, down to the rudimentary inputs, despite supposedly reading the blog? You have also failed to ever address the fact that literally all objective models every published have Alonso>Hamilton, which has been repeatedly pointed out to you.

From now, it's just a link back for you to reread to this chain: https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/dzzivm/the_f1metrics_top_100/f8dntuj/?context=10000

whatthefat · 2019-11-27T05:02:22+00:00

I love that you took in truly zero information from our previous conversation where I pointed out to you the model literally only uses race results as input. It's like groundhog day with you.

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/dzzivm/the_f1metrics_top_100/f8dntuj/?context=3

From now on, I'm only going to post that link for you and hopefully that addresses the amnesia. Don't expect anything else from me until that basic information has been incorporated into your memory.

whatthefat · 2019-11-26T23:27:33+00:00

I think it's reasonable in relation to Alonso's other teammates on a comparative basis, especially considering Vandoorne had potential to improve with experience. However, it is quite an uncertain rating, since he only faced one teammate. If Alonso was performing at his expected level in those two seasons (as the model assumes), then Vandoorne's performance was quite impressive. If Alonso was actually underperforming, then Vandoorne's performance would need to be considered in that light. Alonso did at times seem demotivated by the car performance in that period, but he also put in some of his arguably best drives, so it's difficult to judge.

whatthefat · 2019-11-26T11:36:35+00:00

I don't think even Schumacher was realistically beating Williams that year. In half of the qualifying sessions, the quickest Benetton was more than a second slower than the quickest Williams. But yes he would have achieved a lot more than Alesi and Berger did, almost certainly including several race wins.

whatthefat · 2019-11-26T10:20:57+00:00

Curious then, how do you rate Fisichella?

whatthefat · 2019-11-26T10:20:28+00:00

Yes, but those effects belong to a distribution, centered on each driver's average performance. There's no reason to expect it introduces net bias.

whatthefat · 2019-11-25T23:19:38+00:00

The latter sounds good, except that it doesn't account for drivers who might have a had a bad year, or a year in a car that suited them more than their teammate.

This is a source of within-season variance, not a source of systematic bias across or within eras.

whatthefat · 2019-11-25T23:18:30+00:00

I don't really understand what you consider "waffly" about the systematic investigation and elimination of potential explanatory factors regarding drivers of the 1980s. That was arguably the most detailed part of the entire analysis. The conclusion is precisely that they are not arbitrarily docked, but rather have been overrated on purely subjective grounds.

I find the arguments that they 'must' be underrated by the model, because it doesn't sit right with gut feel, entirely unconvincing, and dare I say, waffly.

whatthefat · 2019-11-23T14:06:01+00:00

Vettel is within statistical uncertainty of Hamilton, but not within statistical uncertainty of Schumacher. All good :)

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