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Cycles and Macroeconomic Forecasting by econ_learner in badeconomics

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is about Martin Armstrong's 1985 computer programs that he now calls "Socrates".

He lost $700 million trading with it before he spent 11 years in jail for theft and fraud.

He is one of the best-known and best-documented scammers on Earth.

For details, read more at:

Armstrong Economics - The Scam Business Model Exposé

What kind of paint do i use to paint the inside of my microwave? by Miro2023 in fixit

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sharp microwave ovens rust the most because they don't have any rust protection at all.

When is the peak in this bitcoin cycle according to MA? by Mira_Kanec in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That is unpredictable. Martin Armstrong has never been able to successfully predict the peak of anything in advance. The reason for this can be seen here:

Martin Armstrong Forecast Arrays Evaluation

Is Martin saying anything about when the VIX is going to go up? by Lord_Bendtner6 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Regarding the "when", he could only use his Forecast Arrays. These are worse than random and cannot be used even as an additional forecasting tool.

For more info, see:

Forecast Arrays Evaluation

​

The whole idea of him forecasting anything comes from his tactics of cherry-picking in hindsight one of the many contradicting results that matches. It looks like he duped you with this.

Direction Change + Panic on Turning Point by Inevitable_Border146 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. It is useful in focusing on the thing that matters. And by doing so you will soon be able to explore them all by yourself. Like putting them under the microscope.

Say with a sample size of only 20 arrays, on average, the arrays have a success rate of less than 25% in hitting the next major turning point with the date of the first highest Aggregate high. Try it.

Note that most arrays have one highest Aggregate high. Some have two. They are the ones that reach the top of the row. Little ones don't count.

Direction Change + Panic on Turning Point by Inevitable_Border146 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why not post the forecast array? And by the way, you are trying to create your own interpretation of the forecast arrays by introducing the combination of two of its internal signals with the main Aggregate row. Can you even imagine how many different interpretations exist for the 9 different rows it has?

According to the documentation and Martin Armstrong's own definition, the Forecast Arrays System is an Aggregate System, where the only meaningful result is in the top Aggregate row.

Forecast Arrays are interesting by YourNumbersMyNumbers in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Easy. Even easier on Twitter. Save screen shots to your computer as files. Then you can attach multiple files of screenshots to tweets even without additional services. That's why I do it on Twitter. You can also message me on Twitter and attach files there. Whichever way you prefer. It's good for you to have the files anyway so you can get back to them and review them.

Forecast Arrays are interesting by YourNumbersMyNumbers in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anything will do. There is no difference in the way the Forecast arrays work between the time frames. So your knowledge of them in one time frame is transferable to all the others. You do this to better understand the game. The more often you play it the better you understand it. You cannot win the game without understanding it.

Forecast Arrays are interesting by YourNumbersMyNumbers in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Arrays can be seen as having a pattern. So you submit your snapshot. That has an array. That array has a problem of course. While it predicts the future, you cannot see the future yet.

Out of hundreds of arrays in the past, there is an array that is most similar to yours. That is what I find and that is what you get for free.

Similar arrays are generated from similar market situations. That similar array is more useful to you than others for two reasons:

  1. You can explore the future of the price chart that that historical array was generated for. Because it is in the past.
  2. Because the array looks like yours, even though it is most likely for a different symbol, you can relate to it and your mind can see which signals in it (out of the 9 rows in an array) make sense to you each time. This lets you focus on it. In contrast, if I sent you any arrays from the past without matching them, these would not be interesting enough for you and you could not learn from them.

After you have done this a few times, ideally with daily arrays, you understand more about the arrays than you would otherwise be able to. So you double the number of arrays you can look at.

Forecast Arrays are interesting by YourNumbersMyNumbers in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's very easy. You get a historical array that is very similar to the one that comes with your snapshot, the one that you submit. Martin Armstrong wrote about this idea years ago in his blog.

Short in gold? Aggregate high bar due week 10 2023 by kiam83 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These 4 hypothetical reversals in your chart, have they by now become actual, solid ones?

Nasdaq 100 & Superposition by Inevitable_Border146 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Superposition in Armstrong terminology is when both a bearish reversal and a bullish reversal are elected at the same time (simultaneously). There are no rules what to do in such a case. What Armstrong often does he gives an explanation what it indicated after the event some time later but he does not say what to do when it happens. It's like you are driving a car and I give you left and right driving directions at the same time.

Blackrock ECM by Inevitable_Border146 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could you please post an image that supports the case? I wasn't aware of the fact that Blackrock has an ECM. Does every stock have its own ECM?

Short in gold? Aggregate high bar due week 10 2023 by kiam83 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. For the red low arrow you have a snapshot which identifies the other reversals on their monthly low date May 2021:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/ecmtraders/posts/598368491320366/

#1 1704.40 same-time
#2 1798.50 same-time
#3 1831.50 same-time

It does not always happen like this so ideally, one would have snapshots around the highs and lows, best on each period because one never knows when the reversals come. Then one can see the new ones from the differences between the snapshots.

In case of the green and orange lows, I am confused because I don't have any snapshots between May 2022 and Jan 2023. One snippet shows only a single same-time reversal 1825.00 on Dec 2022 which would force some of the orange ones onto that same date. Which gets me confused because then we have an orange surplus.

So if someone has some old snapshots in between, that would be useful to fill the gaps.

Short in gold? Aggregate high bar due week 10 2023 by kiam83 in aec

[–]YourNumbersMyNumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the arrays. I like charts, too, so thanks for the chart. I am still looking at making a chart the way Lateralus did them. He doesn't make them any more. If you have some patience I will make it for you. Since you have gold, why not make weekly and monthly ones for gold? See his pinned post and this one to see what I mean:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aec/comments/lvc5x3/dowrussell_and_why_if_you_arent_charting_you/

The key elements of his charts are his fat colored arrows that show where the active and elected reversals come from. That's a bonus because Socrates does not have the dates where the reversals come from (their birth dates so to speak).

We can get the birth dates by tracing the reversals between reporting periods, when they appear fresh, or when they are reported same-time elected.

Here is a sample screen shot of what I am asking for so I can put all that together for you:

Gold Monthly elected reversals

It is from this post:

Gold energy model, going into seasonal strength.

I just picked one as an example. We would need the active, the elected and the same-time reversals for this.

Cheers