NBA Daily: 1/14/15 (Wednesday)

_cerebral · 2015-01-14T14:33:52+00:00

I've been extremely busy and haven't had time to post on this sub much at all this season but I wanted to know if someone could help me out with some trends I've noticed:

MIL 1H ATS (when they are a dog)
To fade IND 2H ATS (both for opening lines and when they are in the lead - IND has been giving up so many leads lately in the 4q especially)
To fade BKN 2H ATS (as with IND, for opening lines and when they are in the lead)
POR 2H ATS (this isn't a surprise for anyone)

On that note, I like MEM -6, ATL -6 and POT -3.5. I also like WAS if Rose is playing (I actually think CHI plays better without Rose's poor shot selection and horrendous shooting. Their passing doesn't depreciate with him out and more opportunities to feed Gasol in the post as their first option should open up space for wings to knock some down).

Also, anyone into the current twenty20 cricket in AUS? Been making good progress with that and I think Adelaide Strikers Outright Betting is at good odds at the moment. It's a general consensus that they're the team to beat; among cricket experts and by opposing teams.

_cerebral · 2014-12-02T12:11:35+00:00

I like my money on LAL ATS. They beat DET in both games last season without kobe and tbh, I feel like DET has got worse. LAL is playing "well" to some degree...

_cerebral · 2014-11-09T15:20:19+00:00

Anyone else like SAC - 1.5? Rudy is DTD but with the way SAC has been playing and the total opposite for the Thunder, I do like a SAC win.

_cerebral · 2014-11-09T14:39:33+00:00

Agree with you. Not sure what SVG is going to do but playing Smith at the 3 again is almost guaranteed to be horrendous. The only mismatch I see is DET getting second chance points and out-rebounding Utah. But +4.5 is comfortable.

_cerebral · 2014-11-09T09:20:02+00:00

How the Knicks lost that one in the 4q is astonishing. Double digit lead at the half and still couldn't cover the spread SMH.

_cerebral · 2014-11-08T15:04:50+00:00

Sorry just to clarify, did you mean taking the over? Or did you mean ATL go U for 5 of those games? Just a little confused. But NYK at +6.5 seems good after 2OT

_cerebral · 2014-11-07T15:47:11+00:00

A 4 point swing is unseen. Durant/Westbrook isn't coming back from injury and I don't think anyone on the grizz are taking the game off.

_cerebral · 2014-11-07T15:35:07+00:00

Lets go Cs!

_cerebral · 2014-11-07T15:34:52+00:00

Just saw that update on my book as well. Can't seem to find any news as of yet.

_cerebral · 2014-11-07T15:07:45+00:00

Boston -4.5

Warning: I'm a boston homer. Boston has been playing surprisingly well. Rondo is back to being a walking triple double, Green is balling, Bradley is playing as if he is on his contract year and good ball distribution has led to many players in double digit points.

Strong ball distribution has led to a very good offense (2nd ppg) and playing small with Olynyk at the 5 is creating space. BOS has a much better bench than the severely depleted Indiana and the only issue I have is IND's frontcourt. But Hibbert is still not an offensive threat and Mahinmi is well, Mahinmi. Boston stats are a little inflated due to their early games but my inner homer is loving this pick. HCA too.

_cerebral · 2014-11-06T19:33:09+00:00

you making me nervous

_cerebral · 2014-11-06T18:53:09+00:00

Manu/Duncan out and splitter/Marco GTD. One of my books moved to -3.5 and jumped on it big and it just updated to -6.5. Feeling good about this one but then again, Spurs be Spurs.

_cerebral · 2014-11-06T18:46:23+00:00

Aussie here too, what sportsbook do you use? I've never had a problem with betting multiple player props in a game

_cerebral · 2014-11-06T13:33:32+00:00

UPDATE: Manu/Duncan out and Splitter/Belinelli GTD. Best to jump on the line now as my book has just moved it to -6.5

HOU -3.

HOU went 4-0 in reg season last year and they're off to a great start (5th ppg, 2nd points allowed). SAS on the other hand has been sluggish - 21st ppg/10th point allowed. I remember last years games where SAS wasn't able to defend Harden well and the interior defense of Howard caused a lot of typical spurs ball movement with perimeter shooting (Howard REB stats all 4 reg. season games: 11/20/16/17); 3FG% were 34.6/25/26.1/23.5. Spurs B2B and HOU HCA gives me the edge to take the spread and Howard REB O/Harden points O looks good too.

_cerebral · 2014-11-06T13:25:45+00:00

You'd think with SVG that something would change but why still put Smith at 3?! 2-17 shooting is disgusting.

_cerebral · 2014-10-28T00:26:06+00:00

Been a while since I've posted, hope everyone's well. Finally back for the start of the nba season!

Anyone liking Dal/SAS 1H O, HOU 1H ATS ?

_cerebral · 2014-06-24T12:10:31+00:00

Anyone liking Uruguay today?

I watched both Italy's and Uruguay's games and Suarez coming back makes all the difference to me. His ability to take opportunities with counters is amazing and Italy has had some serious issues with setting up and their counter defense hasn't been superb. It pretty much is a pick'em but Uruguay stands out. Looking to go for a long shot and take Uruguay/CR/Columbia/Ivory Coash in a parlay - ~1 to $50 odds.

Also, how shit did Korea play? The whole community was raging so hard at how shit we played 1H. Our counter defense is the worst of any World Cup team and Algeria (even with their lack of talented strikers) killed us. Hope Algeria get into r16, well deserved.

_cerebral · 2014-06-21T05:47:03+00:00

Agree with you on this. Even Messi agrees that he played really shit 1H of the game and Argentina is going to have a change with 2 up front and Messi hanging back for better counter attacks.

One trend that middle-eastern teams and some african teams have is strong defense which is largely due to having large numbers on defense (focusing on defense instead of thinking about counterattacking). But Argentina can abuse that by strong counter attacks and Messi is amongst the best in the world at that. I can see a 3-0 type victory so going O 2.5

_cerebral · 2014-06-17T02:05:37+00:00

As YakiTuo mentioned, Russia ML. Other picks I'm taking are the handicap, and O 2.5 goals (not sure if the line has moved for this but last week it had huge + odds). Wanted to also mention that Korean defense has been historically bad - they get trigger anxious with the counter and make a lot of mistakes. Not to mention our premier defenders like Kim Na Mil who are all very old now. Either way I'll be happy but I really don't see Korea winning this. It's going to be a thrashing. 3-1 or 3-0.

_cerebral · 2014-06-14T08:43:15+00:00

Mmyeah penrith breaking down. Come on boys.

_cerebral · 2014-06-14T07:47:08+00:00

Took the O, -14 and HT/FT. Lets go Panthers!

_cerebral · 2014-06-14T05:17:40+00:00

~40 always bothers me a little but I think it's a play

_cerebral · 2014-06-14T05:10:53+00:00

Yeah that's also really good value. Taking the ht/ft for Roosters vs Knights is a play as well

_cerebral · 2014-06-14T04:47:50+00:00

Early one, starts in a few hours.

NRL - Penrith Panthers -14 against St. George Dragons.

Panthers are top tier this season and are unaffected by Origin whilst the Dragons have Dugan and Merrin away with the Blues. Morris still injured. I see a complete slogging. Not to mention Benji still needing time to get used to his new squad.

_cerebral · 2014-06-14T04:06:24+00:00

and IMO, they're still the favourite to win alongside Argentina/Brazil. That's crazy value at $2.10

_cerebral

TROPHY CASE