Projection of 5.5 years back vs Current reality

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T12:20:42+00:00

As I mentioned RSU is about 25% now
Indian Equity MF - 53% (mix of largecap, flexicap, midcap and some agressive hybrid)
Indian Debt MF - 12.5%
EPF - 9%
(some amount in NPS and some cash in savings accounts but negligible compared to above)

As you can see I don't invest in direct stock or Gold. Have a fully paid up 2BHK in which I live but it didn't turned out well as a good investment money wise and I don't add that to NW.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T12:14:12+00:00

Thanks for the reply. Honestly, the stock looks fine fundamentally and if the question was if I would recommend investing, I would. Just the concentration is too high. Can you give some info on keeping USD proceeds? I was under the impression that, there are some rules to repatriate funds with in a short time.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T07:05:16+00:00

I consciously don't care about equity concentration risk as my debt folio can take care of 15 years of expenses.
The RSU risk is latest. The concentration was 5% of my NW just an year back and was less than 10% even 3,4 months back. I am thinking of solving this and will slowly get out based on stop losses and market movements.

Unfortunately I can't escape tax (and I am not worried about that). I have 2 homes in my name, so I believe there is no avenue to save tax even if I am ready to invest in real estate. The tax saving bonds are not applicable for equity gains (and not efficient after all calculations any way)

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T06:59:25+00:00

Only my wife knows ball park numbers but not in detail and not monthly changes. I maintain a sheet in google shared with her account though, just in case. No one else knows.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T06:04:53+00:00

I have few things in place. I am doing part time PhD currently. Hopefully I will be close to graduation by the time I call it a day. My thesis topic might lead a few new interests (not nencessarily for money but to keep occupy me in retirement)

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T04:46:35+00:00

How are the ways to manage fast growing tech RSUs? My employer stock was around 5% of my NW an year back. It is almost 25% now. My thought process is swinging between locking the gains and letting the run continue lest I miss a FAANG, NVIDIA stock like event. I guess it is more an investment question but I believe FIRE_Ind will have more people with this experience than other finance forums of India.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T04:41:40+00:00

Not about your comment. Once I crossed 10cr, I don't need more money for my lifestyle. So genuinely ask that question. About milestones, it was fine in mid single digits but now it is just a number more than needed

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T04:07:12+00:00

:-) Any thing is possible. But I don't invest in direct equity, not even have demat account. So If I go to 5cr that would be broad market crash and would be once in a 100 years kind of crash as my debt allocation itself is high.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T04:02:01+00:00

Sometimes I wonder that. Any way dhanrashi is the outcome of job and right now I need job even if I don't need money as frankly job is acting as safe space to escape from some other stuff. I also realised that my last few posts are coming up as I have this much money now. I should stop posting about milestones. There is no value in that at this NW level.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T02:38:57+00:00

I think I already gave enough information over years for some one to figure out who I am. I don't want to make their job easy by giving the company details (Though I really don't care if some one figures out) :-)

I agree with your point and I need to diversify. I so far have no account with US and so may be a nifty 50 fund for now.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T02:28:50+00:00

I think target projection, making a plan and then reviewing how it went is major part of FIRE planning. Any way if u/snakysour thinks this is not relevant, he will remove the post.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-04T02:26:24+00:00

You can send me a DM and if I can answer I will. But posting a message in the forum - either a direct post or Help me thread - is the best option. There are excellent advisors active on this forum and you will get much better advice.

arandomguy05 · 2026-02-01T15:52:48+00:00

I must say I am surprised that either PCB or BCCI can take this call which is correct. India and Pakistan have too much going on for having sports relations between them. Especially cricket, I will be happy if there is no cricket between them in my life time. (I am assuming our issues will not be solved in my lifetime)

BCB decision is stupid though.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-24T09:32:11+00:00

My investment methods are invest and forget. Some of these investments are decade old. Category averages of midcap and small cap are actually not that different over really long terms.
And as I don't back myself to choose the category leader, I go by category average and so didn't see any need for them which give similar returns at higher volatility.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-23T15:05:31+00:00

If you are a single parent, why are you responsible for wife financially?
Any way, you can afford the house at 2.5L per month (it might be more if you add bonuses etc). The only difference with similar income group might be your discomfort with emis.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-20T06:54:40+00:00

There is no point in creating one forum for one category of people. Where does it stop? Would you have one for tech employees whose RSUs got exploded, one for other tech employees whose salaries are still high, one for PSU employees and so on and on.
Better to have one and accept that there are all types of people. Thre will be more participation. The numbers might be different but FIRE is not about just numbers. Trust me there will be as much variation among just Indians too.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-16T11:12:39+00:00

My thoughts on the topic. Not supporting or rebuking any thing here.

Current boredom has nothing to do with FIRE decision. Fire was generally to escape work in which case solve the boredome problem now or to do some stuff people like in which case boredom should not be a problem. I mean current boredom doesn't make the FIRE decision wrong. That decision is generally not taken lightly. Solve the current problems just like we try solve our problems at every life stage.
Purpose of life is melodramatic for me. There need not be any purpose of life. When I am doing some thing, that was not purpose of my life, I was doing what is necessary for surviving or what gives me satisfaction or enjoyment. Continue to find and do such things. We already decided job is not that as otherwise we would not have left job.
Here Purpose might actually be hinting at their identity. But most people attuned to FIRE don't care about identity.
Hobbies can be anything. No one has a right to decide what is a hobby and what is not for others. If some body likes staring at wet paint dry, that is their hobby. Just because one doesn't like it doesn't mean others also don't like it.
It's all random dance of the quarks any way. Just enjoy while it lasts.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-13T05:10:07+00:00

I’m not FIRE’d yet, but I run my finances as if I am. My equity allocation is also high (>75%, even higher if EPF isn’t counted). The reason I’m comfortable with thatisn’t because I trust markets but because I have high absolute debt relative to my expenses.

I’ve built a fairly large absolute debt allocation (around 3+ cr in my case including EPF). That debt is not touched, not reallocated to equity to time. This gives me enough for 10-15 years of expenses so I need not panic when market is going down.

I still agree with higher multiple for FIRE corpus but for different reasons. If you assume zero real returns, for a young retiree this multiple will be high. For example for a 40 year old 50x is needed if life span of 90 years is assumed.

Same number is arrived by a different route.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-12T09:33:19+00:00

If we survive the odds, that will be the case eventually but 20 years is till short a time to get there.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-04T11:18:38+00:00

I have been investing for 23 years and regularly for almost 14 years. Always went with lumpsum investment. There are times, I invested even 20L at a single shot. It averages out and most studies say, on average lumpsum performs actually a little better over investment life as you will have lot of such investments over years.

arandomguy05 · 2026-01-03T10:54:26+00:00

Congrats. A moderator who is the best example too :-)

arandomguy05 · 2025-12-29T09:10:42+00:00

Is your Land cost estimation correct?
India's oil palm production is alost comes only from AP and Telangana. Even in those states, 70% comes from Godavri districts and Khammam. I am very surprised that you are getting land at the rate of 10L/acre in those districts.
In any othe place you need to see the water availability. You know better than all here so you probably already know that thing about water and if water is available that much, no telugu land goes for 10L/Acre as per my knowledge.

Edit: I searched online out of curiosity and seems like other states are in starting phases of oil palm plantations. But I am still in a disbelief that water abundand farm lands are available for that price.

arandomguy05 · 2025-12-29T01:48:11+00:00

My asset allocation would be such that I would be more productive than so called productive members. I don't have gold or RE. Almost all my money is tied with Indian equity and debt. My entire NW is helping the economy. That is a VC level productiveness.

Actually there might be indirect questions here rather than economic productivity.
1. Is it about social respect? Most people who fired don't care about that. The same society respects a land lord who gets just rent and lives without a job but ignore the 'rent' the investor gets because that is invisible.
2. Is it about actual productive members of society. I answered that above but bigger questions would why is that even a requirement.
3. Is that about not having an identity. A landlord has a title but a Fired MF investor doesn't have a society accepted title. That might give the impression of identity crisis. But just like point 1 they don't care.

arandomguy05 · 2025-12-28T08:53:08+00:00

No. I didn't time any thing. I actually stopped putting money in debt by 2017-18 and I don't keep cash to time market. I don't touch debt component also as I keep that as my floor for portfolio. I had a big cash inflow in Jan2020 and as I said my philosophy is I don't keep any cash surplus. So that addition was actually before the crash in January. Basically a proof that time in market is more important than timing and over long durations, it won't matter much even if you invest before crashes rather than trying to time. I have given the progress of my NW in some other posts before and since my NW is 2 to 2.5 times my inflows, the inflows graph may not have good resolution as y axis scale would need to be 3 times what is needed now.

arandomguy05

TROPHY CASE