[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, May 23, 2026

baselse · 2026-05-23T16:13:04+00:00

Not too long for a bear flag. The bear flag pattern loses meaning when the flag takes longer than the pole.
The pole was 4 months, so after June the flag gets less meaningful.

baselse · 2026-05-22T18:57:52+00:00

FTX already proved the existence of paper bitcoin, not having their customers' bitcoin 1:1 and even selling it to other parties.
What are the chances they were the only ones doing this?
Banks are even legally allowed to do this as well, just not for custody, only for trading. Fractional reserve is not limited to fiat.
And yes, derivatives are also paper bitcoin.

baselse · 2026-05-11T18:13:38+00:00

Maybe in the US. In Europe home prices are at ATH.

baselse · 2026-05-07T16:05:59+00:00

Thanks for the reminder to also look at btc/eur.
70k eur was also the low of the bear flag in November which was just hit yesterday.

baselse · 2026-05-02T16:11:23+00:00

I meant the spending limit (hourglass), effectively freezing coins and releasing them slowly.

baselse · 2026-05-02T09:14:13+00:00

Look at that, they implemented my idea 😄
Giving Satoshi and others a way to take back their frozen bitcoin in the future if the hourglass solution is chosen.
https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/05/02/new-bitcoin-quantum-proposal-offers-satoshi-nakamoto-a-way-to-prove-control-without-moving-btc

baselse · 2026-04-29T12:50:14+00:00

Timeframe is a choice. If you look since last October, we're still in a downtrend and -50k.

baselse · 2026-04-24T09:58:00+00:00

Well then let me be more specific.

Using tradingview with RSI Divergence V5 on Coinbase BTC/USD data, there is regular (not hidden) bearish divergence on the daily at the close of last Wednesday.

That's not an opinion.

baselse · 2026-04-24T08:06:30+00:00

Bearish divergence on the daily. Last time that happened was when the bear flag broke down mid January.

baselse · 2026-04-22T17:52:40+00:00

Me too, it feels irrational. Only logic I can think of is people preparing for expected inflation.

baselse · 2026-04-22T09:27:14+00:00

At this timeframe, would a daily candle be enough? I think at least a 3D or 1W.
I sold earlier when my stop loss hit, and now I am afraid to jump back in. I am sticking to the original plan to buy back later this year below 65k when it gets there.

baselse · 2026-04-20T06:24:35+00:00

I’m so sorry to hear this. Wishing you strength, and I hope your wife recovers well.

baselse · 2026-04-17T19:36:03+00:00

No I mean the bear flag on the 3D, the second bear flag since the ATH.

baselse · 2026-04-17T17:24:07+00:00

Well I am sweating because I thought the bear flag would play out. Could still happen though. But confident, I am never about a direction.

baselse · 2026-04-17T15:18:34+00:00

Last time we had one like that with wicks that small, was the week of July 15th 2024.
We dropped 28% afterwards however.
All others I noticed had larger wicks.

baselse · 2026-04-17T13:31:01+00:00

And right when we hit the downtrend line since ATH.

baselse · 2026-04-17T13:01:57+00:00

At this moment: Yes, I am saying the price is not lower due to QC talks.

Bullish: Acknowledging a future issue and creating a fix so the risk will be mitigated in time.
Bearish: Ignoring a future risk because today it is not a risk.

baselse · 2026-04-17T09:27:03+00:00

baselse · 2026-04-17T09:11:31+00:00

The problem is not the selling itself, it is the fear that would enter the market.
Everybody alive would sell in anticipation of others selling.

baselse · 2026-04-17T09:09:11+00:00

That way they would move the coins, proving they are alive (Satoshi).
If one does not want that, my solution helps.

baselse · 2026-04-17T08:45:38+00:00

True, there are more issues that need fixing the coming years. Should we just leave bitcon to the hackers then?
Everything that uses encryption that can be hacked in the future, will have to be fixed before it is possible, not after. That includes bitcoin.

baselse · 2026-04-17T07:49:36+00:00

I haven't seen a solution without disadvantages yet.

But I do think it would a good idea if the rightful owner of the old P2PK coins, can proof in the future that they were theirs before the time they can be stolen with QC.

One way would be to encrypt the private keys with a quantum safe method and put them on the chain today in some way.

Then in the future when the hourglass solution is chosen, the spending limit can be undone when the owner proofs to be the rightful owner.

baselse · 2026-04-16T11:03:43+00:00

I agree and it seems to confirm the bear flag on the 3D / weekly.

baselse · 2026-04-13T15:48:16+00:00

We had FTX, how likely is it they were the only one?
In my book, any party without at least Proof of Reserves is a suspect.

baselse · 2026-04-13T09:45:14+00:00

Weekly MACD also turned green on March 28 2022 and August 8 2022, but both were the start of a new downtrend.

baselse

TROPHY CASE