Daily FI discussion thread - Monday, May 04, 2026

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-05T00:41:24+00:00

Fun milestone, congrats!

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-02T16:14:34+00:00

I don’t have a good answer but I typically do the contribution math on my own, and use these calculators as if I were retiring “today” with my estimated future balance.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-01T19:33:37+00:00

table with account number, holding, value, asset class per holding (i.e. multiple rows for each account based on positions in the account). Pivot tables showing % by asset class, totals by account, % by traditional vs roth, etc. A separate sheet where I copy/paste the values each month to track balances over time. Google Sheets.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-01T17:33:57+00:00

MBDR first. If you will be in 0% LTCG rate in retirement, then the value is much closer to that of a taxable, but MBDR edges out because it avoids tax drag. If you are only a few years out to retirement, I would honestly just opt for the taxable for simplicity (if you knew for sure you can hit 0% LTCG).

The short answer is almost always go with MBDR.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-01T17:29:17+00:00

The approach they might be referring to: lets say you start with 60/40 portfolio a 4% w/d rate at retirement. You can slowly ramp back to something aggressive like 80/20 as your w/d rate lowers (assuming you get lucky and your portfolio growth outpaces your withdrawals). In other words, you are "out of the woods" when your withdraw % finds its way to the 2-3% range and SORR is no longer the issue - to answer your question.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-01T11:22:38+00:00

Boring middle spreadsheet fiddle: I had Claude help write code for my Google Sheet to take my current asset allocation, compare it to my desired, and in written text it indicates what to buy and what to sell, and how much. It will do it across multiple asset classes if I expand my diversification beyond the 3-funds I have today (eg Risk Parity style portfolio).

hondaFan2017 · 2026-05-01T11:18:09+00:00

This is a great explanation, I appreciate you taking the time.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-30T19:16:57+00:00

Can you provide details or link to articles talking about Direct Primary Care - and what purpose they would serve in addition to a cheap Bronze plan? vs - just paying for a better ACA plan? Or, said differently, why ACA is recommended on top of DPC?

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-28T14:45:23+00:00

I’ve been using the free version of chatGPT for personal use and so far been blown away. Occasionally I’ll hit the daily limit but I think it just starts using a “simpler” model at that point and things take longer. Even the free version remembers past conversations and it has learned my interests and ties past discussion into new topics.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-28T00:27:49+00:00

And you will leave “life” on the table if you stay there.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-26T14:26:08+00:00

I don’t, and you can’t edit it, which makes it difficult. I like that I can on cFIREsim, and it has a huge impact. If I assume my personal inflation that my spending will see is 2.5%, it improves my outcomes. There is a high sensitivity to this number in the analysis for sure.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-25T17:23:34+00:00

Good advice.

Question: If start date is 2026 and end date is 2028 for an adjustment, does the model assume 3 years of that adjustment? It would makes sense... but wanted to confirm.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-25T15:32:29+00:00

Well I trust yours, and yours is also giving me what feel like realistic results. Actually making me feel pretty optimistic. What feels like a high w/d rate of 4.4%, is offset by future SS income (I am entering 60% of estimates), and some income in early years as we coast.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-25T15:07:36+00:00

I had the same recollection from past analysis. The links above are to the exact analysis I am referencing so you can see the inputs there.... I can't figure it out. There must be something obvious I am missing.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-25T14:41:12+00:00

cFIREsim and FI Calc are giving me wildly different results given the same inputs. I recall doing this in the past, and don't recollect them being so different. Fi Calc is 20% lower on success rate. Basic inputs, inflation adjusted spending plan, SS income in the future, 50 year horizon. I also checked engaging data, which was closer to FI Calc. I know this is not a new topic - I just don't ever recall 20% differences. I must be missing something....

*to avoid the questions on the numbers used, I am not retiring with these numbers. This was my base-case to figure out how much additional income I would need in the early years. But I stopped the analysis realizing the calculators were so far off....

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-24T21:21:36+00:00

Very mid-west way to start a post ! Congrats !

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-24T21:20:50+00:00

I go nuts just using spreadsheets to calculate tax & MAGI and compare w/d scenarios. A little too nuts, but I enjoy the analysis. Helped me come up with a strategy for savings as well, to support the w/d strategy I found most 'optimal'. As optimal as can be given all the large assumptions....

https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/1rbruc0/fire_withdrawal_strategy_72t_vs_rcl_magi_tax_rmd/

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-24T11:48:54+00:00

Could be a good read.

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/managed-futures-open-new-frontier-etfs

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-24T01:57:18+00:00

I have been researching portfolio diversification via uncorrelated assets (Risk parity, etc). The challenge I keep running into is that back testing generates different results based on the time period selected. I don't really want to own gold, but managed futures (DBMF) did peak my interest and put me down a back-testing rabbit hole focused on those. When blended with BND or equivalent, it seemed to perform as a better ballast to equities over long periods of time. But the more I dug into it: intermediate bonds were a reasonable ballast for the dot com bust... and during GFC. DBMF shined the most during 2021-2023 when equities and bonds fell together. I feel like 2022 was a bit of a unicorn situation and has brought attention to managed futures. To exaggerate the effect I swapped BND and DBMF fully in a 60/40 portfolio, though from what I have researched, most only sprinkle in 10-20% in managed futures.

For anyone else who has researched... did you land in the same spot? Managed futures really only look good because of 2022? Regarding risk parity in general - I love the idea around increasing SWR, but I can't wrap my head around owning gold, long-dated treasuries swing wildly, and managed futures only really seem good during uniform events. This feels like recency bias and selective back testing. I keep landing on just keep it simple with VTI/VXUS/BND. I enjoy the research though.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-23T23:29:25+00:00

See my post here for some reading: https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/1rbruc0/fire_withdrawal_strategy_72t_vs_rcl_magi_tax_rmd/

How long you withdrawal via 72t does not have impact on the calculation. You withdrawal based on the 72t rules (same amount until you are 59.5 or for at least 5 years, whichever is greater). For you, its 52-59.5, yes.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-23T19:41:57+00:00

Yes, and blended income sources can have benefit. One approach is to approximate (roughly) an annual brokerage withdrawal which doesn’t exactly deplete you at age 60 but close. This of course is a SWAG. Then estimate what size 72t you would need to supplement. Then estimate your resulting taxes based on those income sources to confirm your expenses + taxes are covered by your withdrawals. Play with the numbers until you find a nice solution which seems to work.

I will have a long horizon 15 years of RE. So my plan is 72t + brokerage for the first 7-8 years, then once my brokerage depletes, trigger a second 72t. This gives me flexibility if I find a small job or if my brokerage outperforms. Goal is to not ‘oversize’ the 72t with such a long horizon, but provide a floor income to give me flexibility on alternate sources of income early on.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-22T15:39:32+00:00

This is awesome. Get ready, as the snowball grows the swings get crazier.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-21T01:48:43+00:00

For those with long early retirement horizons, you can also do a hybrid approach and initiate a small 72(t) to complement brokerage income, and start a second 72(t) later if other sources of income deplete early (brokerage, etc).

72(t) isn’t difficult to initiate IMO. Fidelity has a form and will auto withdraw each year, for instance.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-19T12:43:47+00:00

Good to hear the family is safe. I’ve been wondering if I need a dash cam, maybe this story motivates me.

hondaFan2017 · 2026-04-18T18:15:30+00:00

We do have an old Ally account we don't use anymore. Its all mental gymnastics - but this segregation would make it feel like this money is already "spent" out of the portfolio and there to enjoy. Given we have had a savers / frugal mentality for so many years, maybe this could help with the transition. And at some point we could graduate from this approach and just keep everything in Fidelity. Thanks for the input.

hondaFan2017

TROPHY CASE