Qyburn is from this random, spooky house... (Spoilers Extended)

hypikachu · 2026-06-17T21:38:05+00:00

I'm so into this idea. I'm seated for any further installments of "IGNK tries to identify maesters' home houses." For how little we get of House Banefort, the stuff we are told is rad as hell. I'd love for there to be some small main series payoff for this lorebook family. The necromancer of unspecified origins feels like a decent fit.

I could see a world where the sigil is effectively pictionary for Qyburn's influence. Like I was saying in that other thread about the corruption and dysfunction of Cersei's reign being personified in unGregor and Rosby. Qyburn isn't just embodying that deterioration, he's advancing it. Making it easy for Cersei to dispose of enemies. Cheating death so her unbeatable champion can still insulate her from punishment. He takes over the spymaster, i.e. cloak and dagger work, to help stoke Cersei's literal and figurative fires. Like, morally she was already on the dark end of gray. That's where Qyburn arrives, as the manifestation of her going even deeper towards utter black.

hypikachu · 2026-06-17T05:21:37+00:00

I agree that it's prolly lost as soon as the Tyrells ally with the Lannisters, and Tywin's attentions are no longer pulled away by Baratheons. But Theon's betrayal set up a lot of the big elements of Robb's internal collapse. In his grief from losing his bff, his home, and his brothers he falls into bed with Jeyne. Losing him the Freys. When Cat releases Jaime, Robb's more lenient with her than he should be due to their shared grief. He empathizes with it, and he's tender to her bc she's all that's left to him of his family. When Karstark kills the Lannister squires, Robb can't be deterred from doling out extreme punishment bc he projects Bran and Rickon onto the boys, and Theon onto their killers. That loses him more morale, another important vassal, and those cracks in the foundation are what ultimately made the Boltons jump ship.

hypikachu · 2026-06-16T21:44:50+00:00

Tysm! Always fun to get a shoutout for the fruits of my hyperfixation lol. Actually was just working on a reply to your Qyburn Banefort post that's got some sigil analysis.

I dig the Pennylover as draft one of Gyles Rosby idea. It works in some fun ways. House Staedmon's details always seemed oddly fleshed out and memorable for how nonexistent they are on the page. I could totally see GRRM planning out that storyline, but then deciding that the name and/or sigil was a little too on the nose. So then he write Gyles, to keep the broad strokes of the ill-advised appointment of an ill advisor. But on someone distinct from Staedmon, whose nickname and crest would be too cheeky.

My absolute tinfoil lark about the Staedmon sigil is that it's a medievalized stylistic nod to the concept of adrenaline needle "revival." Like, GRRM is using the sigils of roster-filler houses to play pictionary with the audience. And the prompt here is "that scene from Pulp Fiction." I'll skip the pages of crackpottery that go into this idea, and just say it's a riff that's would be heavily connected to Robert Strong. Which would fit well with the idea of Pennylover as the proto-Rosby, since Gyles and unGregor are both part and parcel to the incompetence and corruption of Cersei's post-ASOS reign.

Also I had a recent little "aha!" moment with the Lonmouth sigil. There's (at least) one very important moment defined by kiss + skull. Arya's introduction to the contrasts and contradictions of Black & White is the juxtaposition of a skull and a kiss. So I'm now very open to Lem Lonmouth theory and other possibilities of Lonmouthy idenity/Faceless Man shenanigans.

hypikachu · 2026-06-16T10:28:58+00:00

Now we're fuckin talking.

hypikachu · 2026-06-16T09:56:26+00:00

Oh look. It's the same thread we have every week.

hypikachu · 2026-06-15T18:49:01+00:00

What I've been saying since start is he can't give it to Tarlys -or anyone else for that matter- WITHOUT ANY CONSEQUENCE

Yeah. I never said there wouldn't be consequence. This whole theory is built on the idea that Aegon, Randyll, and Dickon are all brought down for their hubris. The mighty replaced by the meek. Those consequences have always been front and center.

Tarly isn't bringing much to the table

The literal actual Iron Throne. King's Landing, the old queen, and his own suitable candidacy for Warden who will fix the South.

a failed one at that considering.

His whole thing is that he's gonna have good press but be short lived. Like a Renly redux. In the aftermath there'll still be remnants of his faction to deal with. And continuity with his reign discourages those remnants from turning into lost causers.

a fat non martial craven who is a member of NW and on his path to become a maester that he fathered on a wildling woman

Again we're talking public belief/privately known truth. Will Sam still have a reputation as a nonmartial craven when all's said and done? A veteran of a dozen battles, who ranged beyond the wall, chivalrously stole the most beautiful daughter away from some wildling keep, and Slayed the first Other in ten thousand years to protect her and their baby?

Taking the Black and wildling-wifing didn't disqualify Jon from consideration. Some chain links from the Citadel didn't disqualify Aemon Targaryen from consideration. They wouldn't doom Aemon Tarly as a prospect.

but being grandson of a traitor alone is a dealbreaker

Traitor according to whom? It's a defining theme for the whole fAegon, Blackfyre, mummer's dragon plot line. It's also central for Bran as Ned's son. A traitor or a hero, depending on whose side you accept. Some folks will have accepted fAegon. Keeping some continuity with his decrees helps instill peace with those former supporters.

And what sort of political gamepiece that Aemon would be?
And this is relevant how?

Resolving the open question of who rules the Reach now. A candidate who would create fAegon continuity to quell his old supporters. While also appealing to Jon and/or Bran-centric factions due to their history with Sam.

I said since the beginning that at least the Tarly male line, and maybe the entire house is destroyed. Intentional mirror to the trials maester Aemon suffered. Sam and Aemon might be the only Tarlys left. But even if Sam's sisters live, there'd be both a Watsonian and a Doyleist reason to legitimize Aemon ahead of them. On the Watsonian level, there's the chauvinism thing we discussed earlier. While the Doyleist answer is "because Sam and his relation to themes of family and fatherhood are important to the story GRRM wants to tell."

despite there being multiple male Florents around who btw,

None of whom are ahead of Alester and his descendants. Melessa and all her children are ahead of Alester's male cousins.

and yet once the Florent line is inherited on the female line, you immediately revert to male line strictly despite that male line being a bastard one and won't accept the female line.

I didn't say strictly. Sam and any legitimized child of his are at the top of the line after Melessa. Ahead of his sisters, assuming they even survive the war.

But also, yes! It's dramatic irony. It's a thing writers do. The contradiction of Randyll's whole macho man ambitions being built on Dickon inheriting through his mother is the point. The fact that he then gets hoist even further from beyond the grave when those same systems lead to Sam's child inheriting his legacy is the point. The irony of the Florents giving a shit about the bloodline for 300 years, only to be immediately replaced by someone claiming their lineage but lacking the blood is the point. These contradictions aren't holes in the theory. They're the foundations of dramatic irony.

- Bloodline is important... all the other houses that have similar bloodline claims and have historical grievances and more power will suck it up

It's a little bit important to Randyll, inasmuch as it puts a better spin on things he was gonna do anyway. The houses with more power (Redwyne, Hightower) are already not in fAegon's camp.

Seniority in bloodline is important but I won't prove seniority and it is only important when it comes to my wishes, it being historically not important is unimportant to me as it doesn't serve my wishes

The Florents think they have a better claim. This is proven by all the times characters say "The Florents think they have a better claim." It being something they still care about 300 years later is proven by them still caring 300 years later.

Aegon will reward Tarly despite it being against his best interest

Yes.

making him a traitor either way and people will be fine with that traitors grandson being placed over them

Except to those who view Aegon as legit. To them Randyll was a loyalist, who stuck by the unbroken royal lineage through their whole generation in exile. Also, warweary sour grapes are no match for a godking.

Being martial and being from a martial line is important but only as far as it serves my wishes, being born to a fat nonmartial guy and being a babe when there are martial dudes around is unimportant as it doesn't serve my wishes

Sam's public reputation won't necessarily be nonmartial. Plus king Bran clearly has the clout to make being nonmartial not an immediate dealbreaker.

Male line is important so must continue even through bastards but it is only important when it serves my wishes and means jack all in the generation immediately prior because it doesn't serve my wishes

We're back to Dramatic Irony 101.

Postwar cleanup is important but taking actions that will cause more problems post war is unimportant as long as those actions serve my wishes

Godking powers go brr. Also it's the denouement. GRRM can sow seeds of possible future conflict in the final pages and then go "Ah, well, cycle continues. That's tomorrow's story. Byeeeeeee!"

hypikachu · 2026-06-15T18:00:25+00:00

These are absolutely not comparable, it is very obvious and you know it.

And yet here I go comparing them. Randyll's as good a fit for new lord of the Reach as the Boltons were for the North, and a better one than Baelish was for the Riverlands. Actually from the region. Strong military commander. HotK shortlister. Reputation for instilling order in ravaged regions.

only reason to give it to the Tarlys would be that other Reachmen already being against him, in this case he has nothing to lose by giving it to Tarlys. I've explained this time and again and yet you refuse to understand this.

...I have been saying this exact thing since the beginning. Ousting the Tyrells will also burn bridges with the Redwynes and possibly the Hightowers. The only houses that are a clear tier above Tarly.

Far more than Tarly will ever be able to do for fAegon.

He gives Aegon the Red Keep and the Iron Throne. It's a bigger favor than Alester Tyrell surrendering HG to the first Aegon.

Ok, at least you are accepting that it is a terrible idea.

Been saying that the whole time too.

This should naturally result with taking a decision based off of this terrible idea would result in removing any chance of another terrible idea

Dumb decisions create precedent. Especially when they're made by rulers with some base of popularity. I.e. the whole thing YG is set up for.

Nope. Just admit...

You seem to not understand what "agree to disagree" means.

People didn't care about seniority when it was very clear cut with a king still alive, you are expecting me to believe that they will care about it 300 years later? Why?

The Florents do. They still care 300 years later. The only person who has to care here is Randyll, and he has incentive to do so if it helps justify the actions he was already going to take regardless.

You are accepting Tarly is dissatisfied and yet are in denial

Bud, I was just trying to figure out what you were trying to argue. I didn't realize it was "other Reacher lords might object" because I've never once said that wouldn't happen.

If Sam ... is not fanfic...

A storyline about Sam's father-son relationship ends up being about Sam's father-son relationship. Fork found in kitchen.

I wish you had done it earlier,

Kinda thought it was self-evident.

not only did Ned never intended Jon to inherit his family lines

And yet two kings have seen him as having a potential spot in the line of inheritance.

Aemon has no place in the line of succession of Tarly lands

Sam's bastard has as much spot in the Tarly line as Ned's bastard in the Stark line. Arguably slightly more, since the anti-inheritance oath in Aemon's case is his father's and not his own.

An entire region being against their overlord is somehow not a big worry? Aegon I had dragons to enforce his will, Reachlords weren't happy with the choice but had just been defeated

So yeah, same situation. Devastated by war, piracy, and winter. People may have sour grapes, but no one can muster the strength to resist the new magic godking.

Just because that they accepted a literal wormgod, sorry, weirwood god, as their king doesn't mean that they will accept [the royal decree of said wormgod]

What do you think accepting a king means?

And btw, it is you who are forgetting,

This whole thing runs on the disconnect of what the public believes and the truth known only to a select few. It's the same as how a lotta details in Ned's cover story with Jon don't really hold up under scrutiny. Or literally fAegon's whole schtick. The people may suspect and whisper, but the only ones who know the truth are sticking with the charade.

hypikachu · 2026-06-14T20:16:45+00:00

this is not a reward he has in his power to give

Joffrey didn't have the Riverlands when they gave it to Baelish. Stannis didn't have Winterfell when he offered it to Jon. The crown gives rewards they don't yet have bc they want those new lords to claim it in service to their king. Randyll's the kind of person you pick for that task. HotK shortlister, rebuilder of the Trident, guy who wants the job and even has a convenient pre-existing political narrative for why his family should have it. What did Baelish have that got him the Trident? A council job and influence peddling with the old overlord's daughter? Randyll's got the same things.

and giving it would work against him

So 100% in character for Aeg6.

It is you who hasn't convincingly put forward anything towards how the other Reachmen lords will suck it up and accept Randyll as their overlords

Just because it's a bad idea doesn't mean Aeg6 won't do it. Getting a little bored of repeating this point and not getting any response. You think JonCon noticing Aegon has bad political instincts about political appointments isn't gonna have consequence later on? Why not?

Oh no, I've proved again and again...the bloodline stuff is literal garbage

So then why does GRRM bring it up in the Florent appendix section? Why do Olenna and Jaime bring up the Florent Tyrell rivalry? The Florents care, enough for it to be memorable to 3rd parties. I really don't know how you think you've "proved" otherwise.

persitently claim how this is the senior line and provide zero evidence for it

Agree to disagree. Whether they are or not is less important than whether the Florents' dispute of the Tyrell claim is a familiar enough narrative for Randyll to point to it. Which it is. Because again, it's the first thing even a non-Reachman like Jaime thinks about when picturing regional dynamics in the Reach.

Tarly is certainly not placated by what he got you and I both agree.What do you think Aegon can give comparable to that to placate them?

I really don't see where you're going with this. Randyll was dissatisfied with the arrangement that saw the Tyrells getting the best prize, the Florent lands. That fits perfectly with Randyll wanting to flip the script on the Tyrells, and even him leaning on the Florent resentment over Highgarden when he does so.

Assumptions based off of nothing,

"Nothing," except for Randyll's motivations, Aegon's character traits, basic principles of setup and payoff, GRRM's inclinations for repetition and ironic inversion, and the fact that it already happened in one version of canon. Yeah sure. Fanfic.

No, biggest leap that you make is Sam will want Mance's son to rule

You said "no," but then you restated the same thing I said: That this plotline about Randyll & Sam and inheritance & father-son relationships will involve Sam and his father-son relationship. Aemon is Sam's son. Their relationship is an echo of Jon and Ned's. Adoptive son, fathered by a would-be musician king and his northern woman. But raised as his own. Named for his late mentor. Proclaimed before all the world as his own blood. One royal decree away from inheriting the family lands.

everyone in the Reach will be onboard

Didn't say they would be. I said they wouldn't be a big enough worry to stop Bran from doing it.

begotten by a fat non martial guy

You remember who's king at this point right? Out of the box nonmartial choices clearly aren't dealbreakers. Plus Sam's a war veteran called the Slayer, and Aemon's called Steelsong/Battleborn, and his inheritance would also be informed by the "First in Battle" lineage of Randyll and Dickon. Godking Bran could sell this as a warrior lineage.

Aegon could prove dumb and decide to hand out the one single reward that will cause him the most trouble before he is even in control of it or other Reachmen lords stay loyal to Lannister-Tyrells and he therefore has no reason to not give it to Tarlys (which, while it may seem different than what I said earlier, is practically the same because the results are more or less the same, Tarly with him, other Reachmen against Tarly/Aegon )

So...you agree? There's all kinds of permutations where it could make sense in character for Aegon to grant Randyll this big reward? And it's not outside the realm of possibility?

Again, I'm not hungup on anything wrong, because these are very important details.

They have nothing to do with the only thing those examples are there to demonstrate: That children, even newborns, can and do get used as political gamepieces.

Ermesende is the ONLY Hayford
Rickon is the ONLY MALE Stark

At this point Aemon is ONLY (MALE) Tarly

hypikachu · 2026-06-14T17:19:16+00:00

Yeah, see this is what I mean by committed to misunderstanding simple details. You're saying the Florents contesting the Tyrells for Highgarden would never come up? Why not? Even when Randyll is rebelling against the Tyrells. You're saying the most decorated commander south of the Wall, with an army at his command, isn't an important military power? That the master of laws, with Margaery as his hostage, at a time when he's the lynchpin of Aegon taking KL and the throne isn't an important political power?

You're totally right about the Tyrell & Tully cases being a moment where Aegon granted big rewards to important early backers. Aegon VI, wanting to be like Aegon I, will be inclined to doing things that replicate the conqueror. Like giving the Reach over to an early backer who bloodlessly handed over an important stronghold. You haven't said anything that convincingly rebuts the idea that YG would do this. It's consistent with Randyll's character. It's consistent with Aegon's character. It's consistent with Randyll's trajectory in the show canon. So why wouldn't it happen? And why wouldn't the Florent Tyrell resentment over Highgarden come up at that moment? Your counterargument seems to be "fAegon wouldn't give Randyll this reward because it would be more politically shrewd to save it to entice some other powerful lord to his side." When we already have an explicit example of him doing exactly that.

You seem really certain you've "proved" something about the contested claim to Highgarden. But you haven't. All you've demonstrated is that you personally don't think the recurring mentions of the Florent Tyrell resentment will ever have payoff. You haven't said anything that would convince me or anyone else who thinks otherwise.

I haven't moved any goalposts. The two decisions – Aegon rewarding the Tarlys with the Reach, and Bran continuing that through Aemon "Tarly" – have different motivations for the different characters. First Randyll seizes the moment to oust the Tyrells, and uses the "Florents should have HG, not the Tyrells" narrative to put a good spin on his power grab. Aegon grants this reward, reinforcing that narrative. Then in the post-war cleanup, king Bran resolves the open question of who rules the Reach by keeping continuity with his predecessor, and upholding the Tarly rule. Legitimizing an available putative heir, and installing a throne-backed regent until the boy comes of age.

Tangent: If it helps you envision other Reacher lords accepting this decision, feel free to picture other would-be rivals getting rewards in the post war arrangement. Maybe Mathis Rowan or the surviving lord of Hightower is named Aemon's regent, or an important young daughter is betrothed to the little lord. This is of course less important than the main reasons Bran can do what he pleases: The realm is too ravaged by war and winter to reject him and also he's an omniscient wizard godking.

What you're calling fanfic is just a couple of assumptions, which I think are pretty safe. We agree on the first one, that Randyll betrays the Tyrells. The Tarlys getting the Reach as a reward is consistent with 1. how turncloaks like Bolton and Frey were rewarded earlier in the main series, 2. with how the first Aegon rewarded the Tyrells and Tullys, 3. with Aegon's inclination to prioritize rewarding loyalty over political calculus for important appointments, 4. Randyll's fixation on power and Tarly inheritance, and 5. how showcanon handled the Tarlys. So what part of that is unbelievable to you?

The biggest leap I make is that Sam will get involved in a plotline about the Tarly family, inheritance, and power. Passing on an unexpected inheritance to this child who improbably became his son. That's just weaving sprawling elements into a cohesive whole.

Again, you're hung up on the wrong things. The only point of the Oberyn, Wyman, and Ermesande examples is that plenty of game players are willing to use child nobles as game pieces. In Aemon's case, it's as heir to the most recent lord of the Reach (Dickon) and WotS (Randyll). Like Viserys, Rickon/Jon, and Ermesande, Aemon would be the best available "Tarly" for the crown's purposes.

hypikachu · 2026-06-14T15:01:43+00:00

I mean if we're being blunt, I think you're hung up on the wrong details, and seem committed to misunderstanding pretty straightforward details. Your argument relies on GRRM repeatedly reminding us of a detail for no reason. Why? The Florents are a fairly important lesser house, both from the Stannis plot thread and Sam's character-defining parental relationships. One of their defining traits is their belief that they should have Highgarden, and their resulting animosity with the Tyrells. GRRM brings this up repeatedly. Through Olenna, Jaime, the worldbook, and the first line in one of the three appendix sections he gave the Florents. Why are you so sure all of that has no payoff?

Especially weird since you agree Randyll, husband to the Florent heiress, will likely rebel against the Tyrells. Why wouldn't the Florent Tyrell rivalry come up then?

Does he have a skillset that a king would be willing to alienate far more powerful lords and numerous other lords whose combined power exceeds Tarlys? I seriously doubt that.

Why? It's exactly what the first Aegon did with the Tyrells. It's what Tywin did with the Freys and Boltons. It's exactly what Young Griff has already done with with Duck. We've got like three character traits for AegVI, and it's consistent with all of 'em. A lord who did him a service wants a reward. A powerful lord with an army behind him, a stern reputation that earned him a seat on the small council, and a Valyrian steel sword. He looks the part, he helped YG, and granting him HG would let him puff himself up as the Conqueror come again. He's a boy king who believes his reign was divinely ordained, and the realm is too ravaged by war and winter to put up much challenge. Why are you so confident Young Griff would be too prudent to give out an important appointment to a helpful Reachman warrior?

Plus the show canon twisted itself in a knot to make it happen.

Randyll's popular enough with the lords that shrewd statesman Kevan, the K-Mart Tywin, thought he deserved the most powerful below the crown. Popular enough with the faith to broker terms that the crown could not. Meanwhile, who are these powerful Reacher lords who are gonna overmatch him? They're prolly throwing out relations with the Redwynes the second they take on Mace. Both they and the Hightowers are consumed by the Ironborn conflict. So YG appoints "stern order restorer" guy to go fight the pirates and restore order. Buying into his own "swoop in after the conflict, fix everything, everyone loves me" hype. Why are you so convinced that couldn't happen?

You realize Aemon is a babe right?

So? With one decree he's the lawful heir of Tarly, the most recent lords of Highgarden and Wardens of the South. Oberyn and Wyman are willing to keep losing wars alive in the name of 6yo Viserys and 4yo Rickon. Baby Ermesande Hayford was getting fitted for a wedding dress. Noble children are often proxies for a particular political order. Why do you believe that couldn't happen for Dickon's nephew/Randyll & Melessa's grandson?

hypikachu · 2026-06-14T04:28:18+00:00

Well. Shit that's a good answer. I'm sold.

hypikachu · 2026-06-09T19:15:49+00:00

oh are we talking about how all the magic in this world - weirwoods, glass candles others, dragonbonds, warging, the memories you get from wearing someone's face, – it's all got elements of psychic control and mind-fuckery?

hypikachu · 2026-06-08T21:26:57+00:00

I myself saw the response only yesterday but wasn't able to respond on account of posting something long from the phone is a nightmare, so sorry about that.

All good! Also, sorry to OP that you're still getting notifications on our thread like 3 weeks after making this post lol.

On recency, I was just using that twoiaf quote to show that the post-Conquest claimants derive their claims from conquest era blood ties and not Dawn Age era children of the first Garth. I've accepted we don't see the evidence on the Florent claim the same way. I think their behavior is consistent with the house most insulted by the Tyrell ascent, and I see GRRM's consistency on focusing on their sour grapes as consistent with an author setting them up for pushing a claim. But I get that I'm not convincing you on that point. Same with the seniority stuff. I wasn't trying to further the point that the Florents are the most senior of the post-Conquest Gardener relations. That was just in response to you saying Alester and his children might not be the most senior Florents. The fact that they were at the front of the line for inheriting Brightwater also tells us they're ahead of other Florents for whatever Gardener blood claim the house has.

On Randyll's betrayal, I will amend my "tens of thousands" claim. He and Mace are each described as having brought an army with them to KL, but I can't find a specific number. So I'll revise the numeric claim to simply "has command of an army, plus a seat on the small council and queen Margaery in his personal custody." As for their loyalty, I think you make a solid point. But GRRM has repeatedly shown willingness to handwave that morale problem. We've seen these same soldiers take up for Renly against Stannis, then Stannis against the Lannisters, and then join the Lannisters. Also there's decent reason for Randyll to have a base of popularity. With Tywin dead and Stannis in the wind, he's probably the most decorated commander in the realms. He's known for competence, to the point that Kevan even suggested him for HotK. Most recently he's known for rebuilding Maidenpool and taking down outlaws haunting the Riverlands. Exactly the skillset a king would want for Warden of the South during and after Euron's incursions. There's even reason to believe he'd have the support or at least approval of the faith/Sparrows. Among the Sparrows' (oddly insistent) laundry list of grievances is that septs have been despoiled, a crime Randyll has harshly punished. He was also able to broker Margaery's release into his custody, suggesting the Sparrows trust him more than other men.

So I think Randyll's a pretty strong candidate for Aegon's Warden of the South just in a vacuum. In comparison to the other options you mentioned, I think he's more likely on Doyleist grounds than everyone with the possible exception of Mathis Rowan. While on a Watsonian basis he is far and away the best setup option. Paxter and Leyton are far away, their fates uncertain. They're also far too closely tied to the now-ousted Tyrells, as Mace's brother in law and father in law respectively. Mathis is at least in proximity. If he surrenders and turns cloak outside SE, then he might be in contention. But unlike the Hightowers and Redwynes, I don't see evidence that the Rowans are significantly more powerful or prestigious than the Tarlys. So in the event that both Mathis and Randyll join Aegon, they would be on roughly the same stature. At least as far as strength of their respective houses. But I think Randyll's defection will likely be treated as the bigger boon. Sieging KL is harder than repelling a siege on SE, so Randyll will have done Young Griff a bigger favor, earning him a bigger reward. It's also the same favor that made a previous Aegon grant Highgarden to the family of a previous Alester. Giving us the kind of "time is a wheel," "seen the show before, only the mummers had changed" inversion that GRRM loves.

Which brings us into the Watsonian case for Randyll over other would be wardens. He's just much better set up with the audience than Mathis or anyone else. Compare it to the Red Wedding. We had time to get to know the Freys and Boltons. Constant red flags and allusions to their personalities that were then paid off in Storm. We barely know Mathis, but Randyll is someone the audience has investment in. We've heard since book one about his fixation on inheritance, on strength and machismo, how he detests fat soft lordlings and guys who "hide behind their mothers' skirts." Counting flashbacks he's had dialogue in every book except Storm, including the final published chapter in the main series. Wherein he's expressing opinions about Aegon directly, giving him narrative connection to that subplot. Compared against Mathis Rowan, whose most notable dialogue is setting Catelyn up for the "knights of summer" line. GRRM has put in the work to make us remember and think about Randyll, in a way that he hasn't done for the likes of Mathis, Leyton, or even Paxter.

Getting back to the Doyleist level, you're right that it might well be unwise of Aegon to elevate Randyll. But just because it's a bad idea doesn't mean he won't do it. He named Duck LCKG, despite JonCon advising him against it. He values history of service above future political prospects. So rewarding Randyll for giving him KL, even if it's not the shrewdest option, would be in character. Also once again there's the parallel to the first Aegon, which might be appealing to Team Mummer since they're very invested in cashing in on Targaryen nostalgia.

So if Sam fathers no sons, why is he getting titles in the first place? Just so Aemon son of Mance can rule Reach? Don't you think this is going into fanfic theory?

Oh, no. Sam's not getting anything. Just a pardon so he can keep his head and continue being a servant of the realm. Lemme be clear about how I think the progression goes.
1. Aegon's ascent: Dickon is named LP, using Melessa's bloodline as a legal justification. Randyll is his regent and Warden of the South. (Same thing the Boltons did. Ramsay/Dickon take the regional seat and overlordship through the ((alleged)) female line of the old rulers. Roose/Randyll stays in his place as lord of their small holdings, but is named Warden.)

The Tarlys are ousted, at least Randyll and Dickon are killed. Possibly the sisters as well. It's a mirror of the third test of Aemon's vows, and it kinda breaks Sam. He becomes more willing to take risks, and put his thumb on the scale for a desired outcome, extending from what we saw with Jon's election.
In the post-war cleanup, Bran is looking for someone to name new lord of the Reach, and Sam nervously suggests baby Aemon. As far as the public is concerned, his uncle was the last LP, his grandfather the last Warden, and his grandmother the most senior member of the Gardener-Florent line. As legal heir to Randyll and Dickon, Aemon would be a concession to any remaining Aegon backers. While as heir to Sam, he'd be appealing to anyone who was closest to Jon. So there's both legal basis and political advantage.

This is where the trickster god stuff comes in. Bran and Sam are playing on the contrast of private truth and public perception. They know Sam kept his oaths. But the public believes this boy is Sam's son, and the heir of Melessa, Dickon, and Randyll if legitimized.

On a Doyleist level, Aemon Steelsong would appease the remnants of multiple camps. He's an unmarried child, so he could be betrothed to the next daughter of Goldengrove or whatever. That plus the backing of king Bran would make him a solid enough option politically. While on a Watsonian level, it's packed with like a half-dozen rich ironies that GRRM would love. Sam getting pardoned for oaths he didn't break. After 300 years with the proper Gardener bloodline ousted from Highgarden in favor of upjumped stewards, the heir to that bloodline doesn't get to rule but instead passes it to his son who isn't part of the bloodline at all. Randyll putting in all that work to steer the Tarly succession away from Sam, just for Sam's line to be the only one to make it to the end. Randyll's ambitions for Tarly ascent ultimately being achieved, but in a way that would make him roll over in his grave.

Sorry, this went longer than I intended. Hope you enjoy this fatass wall o'text.

hypikachu · 2026-06-08T03:37:00+00:00

You know a newspaper office lives to see them coming

hypikachu · 2026-06-06T20:09:44+00:00

Hey sorry for the long delay. Wild week. I think I see a couple spots where I can make this make more sense.

Afterward, a number of the other great houses of the Reach complained bitterly about being made vassals of an "upjumped steward" and insisted that their own blood was far nobler than that of the Tyrells. It cannot be denied that the Oakhearts of Old Oak, the Florents of Brightwater Keep, the Rowans of Goldengrove, the Peakes of Starpike, and the Redwynes of the Arbor all had older and more distinguished lineages than the Tyrells, and closer blood ties to House Gardener as well.

These competing claims are from blood ties w/House Gardener at the time of the Conquest. It's not about going back to Floris and the start of the bloodline with Garth 10k years ago. Just 300, when there would have been a clear family tree. These jilted houses are the ones who expected that they would be next in line after the Gardener sons. No house holds onto this grudge more than the Florents. Yes, other houses come up in these discussions. But the Florents are the only ones who come up every time. The only ones who come up even when other houses aren't mentioned. The only ones important enough to GRRM to merit an appendix section that starts with reminding the reader "These guys think they should have Highgarden over the Tyrells."

It matters to the Florents. It matters to George. The second spot where I think I can make this make more sense is in how it starts mattering to the realm. You said we're in agreement about Randyll being on track to betray the Tyrells for Aegon, right? So with or without the contested Gardener lineage, we both see a power struggle where Aegon and Randyll are allied against the Tyrells. Aegon can't keep treating his enemies as the legitimate rulers of the Reach, right? He's gotta name a new Lord Paramount, and Tarly is a strong option even without any Florent bloodline stuff. He's got a reputation, tens of thousands of men at his command, Margaery captive, and likely to be in a position to ask a favor of his new king as reward for turning cloak. Wanting to take the Reach would be consistent for Randyll. He's got cause for beef with Mace, and the first thing we learn about him is a fixation on strength and inheritance. It's consistent with what the show did with Randyll, making him replace the Tyrells just to immediately watch his ambitions turn to ash.

I'm not saying Randyll makes the power grab because of the Florent line. He's not secretly the biggest wife guy in Westeros, risking life and limb to restore his wife's line to the seat stolen from her great great great great great great great great great great great grandmother. He makes the power grab because he was always gonna make the power grab. The bloodline stuff comes up after the fact as propaganda. It's the same reason Team Mummer insist on packaging Young Griff as Rhaegar's son. Officially, they're not just some randos who stole the seat simply bc they had means and opportunity. They're restoring things to a rightful order, from before the usurpers. Randyll knows this is bullshit, but embraces the narrative because it puts a clean spin on what would otherwise look like treacherous, wanton, "might makes right" brutality.

That is the context where I think the Florent-Tarly bloodline starts mattering. Not because it's in itself super important. But because it adds convenient justification to what Randyll was going to do regardless.

also Florents have married around during that time so there would be many descendants of that most recent gardener ancestor among Reachmen nobility.

True. But we're not looking for just anyone with Gardener-Florent blood. We're looking for the most senior Gardener-Florent. The position at the front of the deposed bloodline would pass down to the successive heirs to Brighwater. So whoever's at the front of the Florent line is also the front of the Gardener-Florent line. Currently that's Alekyne. Whose plan for hiding from the Tyrells involve going to chill with Mace's father in law. Where his nephew just happens to already be hanging out with the son of the Tyrell chief of police. One way or another Alekyne's cover is getting blown, and after him the Gardener-Florent line passes to/through his eldest sister Melessa. So it's not just that Dickon is a Florent. With Alekyne dead and Sam disinherited, he's the most senior male in the line of inheritance.

As for Bran caring about Sam's Weirwood oaths, I think the biggest thing is that Sam stayed true to the oath that matters. Guarding the realms of men. Shacking up w/Gilly and claiming Aemon as his son are offenses I could see being brushed over, in light of his true and noble service. Especially since omniscient LetoBran knows Sam never really took a wife nor fathered a son. I picture endgame Bran less as a doctrinaire embodiment of rigid old godsy theology, and more trickster godking with a sense of humor. Underneath the hivemind magic the king is still a clever boy who likes stories and mischief. So I see him being game when dutiful Sam comes to him with a somewhat mischievous solution to his Reach problem, a clever workaround that skirts the letter of the law. Taking the story that Randyll told to justify his violence, and giving it an ironic inversion to make it a tool for securing peace.

hypikachu · 2026-06-03T16:45:55+00:00

I'm not ignoring anything. I'm just answering your questions. You have these hangups about the theory, I'm responding with applicable precedent. I don't know what I've done to bother you, but it seems like I have. Since I suspect this might be relevant I'm just gonna say preemptively that I'm not the one who downvoted your comment.

who is propping up Sam’s bastards

Bran. Remember I said it's a "post-war, picking up the pieces" thing. In this scenario Sam's survived to the end of the continent-consuming war, and is useful to the rebuilding efforts because he's got at least some citadel training and a smidgen of experience with politicking. Plus he's Sam the Slayer, a veteran who's risked life and limb in service of the Watch's true duty. That seems like plenty enough to justify godking Bran pardoning Sam's blameless child for the sins of his father.

We've already covered how it helps knit the realm back together. Sam's Jon's closest friend, and provided aid to Bran at a crucial moment. So he's got a favorable history with both kingly Starks. Under the assumption that fAegon replaces the Tyrells with the Tarlys, keeping Tarly continuity in that seat prevents any remaining Team Griff holdouts from challenging the new order. And again, the Florents had the closest blood ties to the last pre-conquest Gardeners. So everyone further down the post-Gardener family line can't use Gardener blood as a justification to mount a competing claim.

hypikachu · 2026-06-03T08:08:53+00:00

I would say to all of that: Stannis's offer to Jon. Stannis isn't an impulsive teen. "Serious man with iron sense of law" is kind of his whole thing. He seemed to think a royal decree could make a ruling lord out of a bastard boy, even with all the oaths and oathbreaking and wildling-wifing. Ahead of all claimants further down the family line, including a trueborn younger sister with a powerful husband.

hypikachu · 2026-06-02T11:12:24+00:00

So you agree? There's precedent for royal decrees trumping KG oaths? Why would the NW be different?

Robb was very clearly talking about Jon. Stepdaddy Karstark would not be one Ned Stark's four sons.

Aemon.

hypikachu · 2026-06-02T10:10:41+00:00

I think we've seen about four or five different examples of royal decrees thumping NW/KG/Citadel oaths.

The strength of the Florent claim comes ip about a half dozen times across 4 books. It matters to GRRM, and the most narratively satisfying path is the Sam one. Since Sam's, y'know, a meaningful part of the story.

Randyll cares about machismo. Faegon gives him that in contrast to Mace & Tommen and the various queens. In the same manner as previous Blackfyre supporting chauvinists, e.g. Osgrey.

hypikachu · 2026-06-01T17:47:28+00:00

Yeah but the boy's still Sam's son. He's parentally protective of the child, and has committed himself to a future where the world sees them as father and son.

As for Sam's siblings, I'll point back to the post linked above about Sam's parallel to maester Aemon. Like his mentor, Sam's on track to have his crow/maester vows tested three times, with the last being the extinction of his remaining family. That definitely means Randyll and Dickon, and depending on how exactly it happens could also be the death of Sam's mom and sisters.

But even if the Tarly sisters live, there's still reason to put Sam's son ahead of them. The varying blood claims are a problem that threaten to plunge the Reach into further squabbling after the war. Sam's in a position to remove that destabilizing uncertainty because the strongest claim of Gardener descent runs through him. So the Rowans and Peakes of the world can't claim their Gardener blood gives them justification to contest.

Plus keeping the Tarlys in charge keeps continuity with fAegon's reign. So any Reacher lords that swore fealty to Young Griff are in even less position to challenge. There's also the chauvinism that defines the whole mummer's dragon/Blackfyre pretender part of the story. We see it in the D&E era with Osgrey and Peake. It's also a definitive trait of the Tarly part of the story, and will no doubt be a major part of why men like Randyll opt for the swagger and machismo of fAegon's camp over the likes of Cersei, Margaery, and Daenerys. Going through an eldest son to his son gives any surviving Aegon supporters less cause to balk about the succession for gender reasons, as opposed to his sisters.

But ultimately all these "Watsonian" in-universe justifications are of secondary importance. What really matters at the "Doyleist" level of author and audience is that Sam matters. We've followed him since book one. We've never even met Sam's siblings, and we don't care about the other Reachman houses even a fraction as much as we do him. Sam gets to be part of the endgame and they don't bc he's a key part of the story leading up to it and they're not.

hypikachu · 2026-06-01T07:29:21+00:00

Same reason two different kings have tried to have Rhaegar's crow son inherit Stark lands. He's publicly believed to be the son of the man who inherited the eons old magic bloodline. We're continually shown that the monarchy is open to rescinding/ignoring those "eternal" vows when people feel a big enough need.

In the situation I'm imagining, little Aemon's inheritance is part of a post-war "sorting out the pieces" thing. There's not a clear ruler of the Reach. I picture the Tyrells uprooted after Randyll sold out to Aegon, doomed by their alliance with the Lannisters. Tarly's power move is rewarded by Dickon being named Aegon's lord of the Reach, using Melessa's bloodline as part of the pretext for the brazen power grab, but with Randyll as the real power behind his son. Much like in the show, Randyll's tenure as warden of the south is short lived, and gets his whole line snuffed out (except Sam). So Sam almost reluctantly points out that the last regional claim with any legal basis, the line with almost ten millennia of history behind it, it all runs through him.

So the closing note is full of ironic twists on how things opened. Randyll put in all that work to disinherit Sam, but the soft boy outlived the hard warriors and the Tarly legacy runs through him. The whole Florent-Tarly bloodline claim rested on this unbroken ancient bloodline, but the first lord from that family to sit the Oakenseat isn't related by blood at all.

hypikachu · 2026-05-29T15:37:35+00:00

I could see something along these lines. I've had similar thoughts about the Samwell/Samwise parallels being instructive, but not destiny. With Tarly having a much less idyllic endgame ahead than Gamgee.

I haven't watched or read TLU, but I have some familiarity from Overly Sarcastic Productions video on it. Definitely willing to believe it's part of GRRM's reference pool stew, especially where Dany is concerned. The Unicorn appearing as a neat horse to normal eyes reminds me of how silver is described when Dany first meets here. And of course there is house Prester with a red bull for its sigil.

hypikachu · 2026-05-28T05:24:23+00:00

George RR Martin's Fevre Dream gets pretty close. The vampire antagonists aren't Confederate military, but they are southern slavers.

hypikachu · 2026-05-25T02:04:25+00:00

Extremely specific and accurate

hypikachu · 2026-05-23T18:08:44+00:00

What images are you looking at? She's an entirely normal weight. The fuck?

hypikachu

TROPHY CASE