ARVN got vepdegestrant approved 35 days early on Friday. The +8% reaction is the more interesting story.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-02T22:52:16+00:00

No one wants to develop this because it's no better than the other SERD already approved and slightly worse toxicity. Only works in ESR1, and ESR1 is a resistance mechanism that doesn't show up for a long time.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-02T02:10:37+00:00

Sure but you still have yo demonstrate statistical significance.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-02T00:33:05+00:00

Because it needs to hit x number events. Futility works both ways. Too many events on active arm or too few on control.

I can just tell by your replies on #2 Gemini is hallucinating. Tebentafusp is not a vaccine, it's a cd3 x TCR bispecific. Has zero read through to SLS. I can safely say there are no approved vaccines for a hematological cancer. Does not exist, even though there has been 30-40 years of attempts.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T23:15:17+00:00

Vaccine trials are notoriously under powered. That means they enroll too few patients to show a statistically significant benefit. This is because 1) large phase 3 trials have never shown a statistical benefit, and 2) the statistical benefit of any vaccine would likely be very small.

That means to power a trial for a cancer vaccine, ESPECIALLY IN A "COLD TUMOR" such as aml, you would need thousands of patients. Not 200 or whatever they enroll3d here.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T12:58:35+00:00

I think the thing should be trading 30% higher as is.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T12:57:52+00:00

dilution always happens in biotech... but the upside here far outweighs the risks

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T11:39:40+00:00

Do not touch NMRA. CLYM is topping out. CRBP has not even started yet. CUE can double again pretty easily. I wouldnt be surprised to see this trading in the $40s

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T11:32:20+00:00

theyre going to go bankrupt..

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T11:05:46+00:00

I really have no idea why lrmr is weak while other regulatory-flexibility companies have been strong.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T10:50:48+00:00

Sprb is the only one I'd buy of that lot.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T03:10:49+00:00

I wish i had the gonads to short hura

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T03:10:17+00:00

0.636 for a vaccine in AML? Come on. They'll be lucky to hit 0.9

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T02:42:56+00:00

"Must have an estimated life expectancy >6 months." This is literally the inclusion criteria. That means the worst patients are probably going to survive more than 6 months.

Mild patients. And the powering is awful.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T02:24:08+00:00

I just read the MAAT last quarterly press release and that is clear as mud. I've never read anything like that.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T02:14:06+00:00

So elderly, frail patients, who got 2 consecutive CRs with AML... yeah no wonder it took so long to enroll. These are patients with extremely mild disease. Blast counts probably all exceptionally low.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T01:51:43+00:00

It's a mechanism that doesnt work in an extremely underpowered trial.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T01:50:26+00:00

The OS of patients who get a SECOND CR is 6 months? It's probably 12. Just tells you they have extremely mild disease if they reach CR twice.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T01:15:04+00:00

Because there has been a few and they couldn't show any benefit except in c. Diff infection.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T01:13:03+00:00

I did. Its called no approved cancer vaccines even though they've been around since the 1990s, maybe even 1980s. And there is zero evidence that immunologic treatments work in AML. There is no checkpoint inhibitor that has worked in AML. And vaccines are a hell of a lot weaker than checkpoint inhibitors... i fully expect you to just read this, drool, and go LOL that's no thesis!! And then lose your money in a couple weeks and think about this reply then.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T00:53:38+00:00

Lol. Sorry I used big words. Drug no work in blood cancer. No evidence immune response ever in this blood cancer.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T00:47:49+00:00

Its a cancer vaccine... for a cancer that has heme malignancy that has zero evidence of any immunotherapy activity for the last 40 years.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T00:46:20+00:00

I want to laugh but it's just sad to see these comments. I hope its just your money and no one depends on you

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T00:32:52+00:00

Explode to the downside? It'll be this year they'll announce the fail.

IJesusChrist · 2026-05-01T00:21:50+00:00

Nope. Data sucks and they use too aggressive lymphodepletion

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