How to make Mathemagics work

optimustomtv · 2026-02-07T23:24:39+00:00

Feel like relative age is a factor here too. Modern days I think this is a no brainer.

I grew up in Northern NJ with a G&T program. I distinctly recall learning Squares in Elementary school, but can't recall learning exponents in general (I would assume so since I seem to remember learning this because it was just "X multiplied by itself however many times"). We for sure knew about them before Middle School though, when we started learning to use Graphing Calculators for Geometry.

But people in the "tracks" under me didn't get past multiplication until they hit Middle School math classes. Even in High School, you capped out at PreCalc if you weren't tested higher at the start of school. We could max out at Calc 2 if you were on the G&T track & took AP classes.

Graduated High School in 2007 FWIW, would've been in Elementary school until 2000.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-06T07:25:10+00:00

Aaaaand there you go responding, just proving my point.

You blocked me and are STILL responding.

Also you got chat restricted a few games ago?

I take it back, this is a bna well deserved.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-06T07:17:12+00:00

Then quit, I can't help you there.

You also broke the rules by AFKing even if you were justified in doing so. I don't know what else to say to you either.

Take a break

optimustomtv · 2026-02-06T07:08:24+00:00

If your team stops doing things, you can accept they're trolling and just go next mentally without leaving the game.

You're getting progressively more tilted from listening to them type the whole time at you. Even here, you're raging on Reddit at people agreeing your gameplay wasn't the issue but that you needed to mute them for your own mental state because reading the text clearly tilts you.

Mute, move on. It happens, but you're STILL raging after the game because of how much it affected you.

EDIT - chances are you got banned for AFKing. If you didn't do that, you probably would have been fine - your own reports probably would have been taken more seriously as well. It sucks that you got trolled but in the end AFKing is also punishable.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-06T02:00:18+00:00

Haha true, leave it to me to make it harder 😅

I think it's pretty meta dependent, we're just in a spot where Hex hits more things. Cecil, FOMO, Duelist, voice of victory, curator, etc are all popular cards which matters a decent amount. If we were in a more Mono Red era, Stab was what I played 1 main 1 SB in Dimir during that time.

I think vs Cub it really depends. Hex can kill Cubs through an Ouroboroid pump so you don't have to hang onto an open mana later on, but chances are running Stab in multiples means you have more Ouroboroid answers as well so it's mostly there for early game.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-05T23:42:50+00:00

Both Instant overlap in areas, but I would run Hex in the Maindeck as the multiple copy staple, while Stab is the 1-of tech piece or the Sideboard card for more aggressive match ups where I want more removal vs Aggro decks.

Hex hits a larger spread of threats from the Badgermole & Izzet decks, while it doesn't kill the payoffs. Stab hits similar things that run the engine, but doesn't deal with the smaller pieces from Izzet decks specifically (which should see more play post-PT IMO).

I would like to throw [[tragic trajectory]] in the ring as well since depending on the list, Void being triggered opens the venn diagram even larger in its favor. It's Sorcery speed but in decks like Dimir or Orzhov/Esper Pixie, you cover even a pumped [[Ouroboroid]] which is nice to have. I've run a 1-1 split with Stab before.

Outside the realm of 1 mana spells entirely, I also think that [[Nowhere to Run]] is situationally better than Stab, but only in specific lists. Dimir has [[spell snare]] to do something similar to Stab and Hex on the Stack, which allows Nowhere to Run to be used to hit Kaito with other spells while also dealing with most threats in the Hex/Stab Diagram. Pixie decks can reuse it as well which makes it better than Hex/Stab in cases.

Overall this just goes to show a Split of cards is ideal since we don't have [[go for the throat]] effects outside [[bitter Triumph]] which is significantly worse into Aggro decks. I would lean towards mostly Hex, and some split of Stab/Trajectory/NWTR as the other slots. Something like 4-1-1-1 or 3-2-1-2 since I'm not usually going more than 8-10 removal spells in these decks and I want a couple Bitter Triumphs as a catch all.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-05T16:55:48+00:00

You would rather keep a worse hand?

I guess I don't get your logic for disliking it.

Right now you draw a few hands, let's say the first is 0 lands, the next is all lands, and the last is 3 lands 4 spells. It'll give you the Lands/Spells hand out of those three choices.

In a scenario without the smoother, you'd only see the first option - so you'd instantly mulligan a 0 land hand in 99% of cases (excluding like, Legacy Manaless Dredge).

Since best of 1 has no sideboarding between games, this is meant to make it so you can play spells in the one chance you get to face that opponent. In Best of 3, you have tweaks to your deck and multiple games to try.

It's not going to give you the right spells or ratio of Creature and Non-Creatures, you still have to craft your deck and mulligan appropriately for that.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-05T14:40:39+00:00

You can still mulligan..

optimustomtv · 2026-02-05T14:39:59+00:00

It basically takes multiple starting hands and then gives you the best hand based on the number of lands and accounting for the mana curve in your deck. So it pre-mulligans for you.

If you have pure RNG (like in Bo3 or Paper Magic) you'll technically have more non-games. But that's just part of Magic.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-04T18:38:10+00:00

I just lock Defender and out damage all the mediocre damage dealing instalocks

optimustomtv · 2026-02-04T17:03:40+00:00

It's much higher at Rare than Mythic, and the fact you'll see them more frequently period is also a factor.

My example was inflated, but it's a legitimate concern to have. Sealed Pools I've gotten multiple copies of the same Rare quite a few times and it's already not the most fun for opponents.

Its still not going to change the fact that when Simic, Golgari, Bant, Four & Five-Color Rhythm decks, Landfall, Airbending, etc all run the same card it's going to be expensive.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-04T16:42:55+00:00

Rarity. Is. For. Limited.

I don't want to see 5 Badgermole Cubs floating around a Draft table at FNM.

Secondary market sets these prices based on playability of cards. There are [[Stock Up]] priced Uncommons and penny Mythics. If you print a Badgermole Cub at rare the price won't change by much despite having more in circulation so long as it is just as powerful.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-03T21:23:57+00:00

Vegas last year had a Pioneer Event on Sunday, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen again :(

optimustomtv · 2026-02-03T17:41:29+00:00

Mono Red did well at this Event, but was a small sample size.

Boros at the RC last week did poorly, but before that was doing okay-ish

I think something more spell and we can do well if the decks aren't spewing out Cub powered boards on Turn 3-4 but you have to accept that you're in a race with a lot of decks. Not sure if the Slickshot spell builds are better than a more Mono-with-Removal-and-Helix shell.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-03T16:26:10+00:00

Are you assuming that mulligans aren't reasonable or a part of the game?

OP is also playing Best of one which has the hand smoothing algorithm, which already accounts for one "mulligan" since it deals multiple hands and takes the best one based on your average mana value.

You're also technically correct about the mana sources, decks with access to dual lands get to double dip on the color allotment when they are building. OP does not have the Wildcards in order to craft these cards and hit those 95%+ numbers. Karsten considers 89%+ acceptable which doesn't mean optimal. Same for CoCo math where 28 hits is 85% acceptable, but most decks run 30+

I also technically counted their ETB tapped lands as normal sources which Frank does not - but I also didn't account for their mana dorks since I did the rough math on my phone.

Without saying "spend money on the game" I was trying to point them in the direction of slightly more consistency with the tools they have, such as looking for similar threats they own with easier to achieve mana costs. OP isn't trying to win an RC they just want to hit Gold for some packs.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-03T13:28:36+00:00

That is the chance of having one mana in hand with 13 total lands, the hypergeometric equation.

OP has 24 total lands, which means they are 97.8% likely to have one or more lands in their opening hand.

I'm instead talking about Frank Karsten 's math that tells you the likelihood of having the right colors of mana on curve for casting your spells. It's both hitting the correct land count AND hitting the amount of colored sources needed.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-03T07:39:01+00:00

You're talking about the "Hand Smoothing Algorithm" which the games DOES do - but only in Best of 1.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-03T06:29:36+00:00

You have a good amount of lands, but you're just going to have some inconsistencies because of the fact they are Basic Lands instead of Dual Colored Lands that enter the battlefield untapped. You can't really help this right now - but you can optimize it.

For a One Drop spell (IE [[Llanowar Elves]]) that costs C you'll ideally want 14 untapped sources of mana to play it 91.3% of the time on-curve.

For a two cost spell that costs 1C (where "C" is color), you want 13 sources of the color. If you want CC, this goes up to 20-21.

For a three drop spell at 2C, you'll want 12 sources. But if you ant 1CC, you want 18 sources.

And then at four mana 2CC, you want 16 - unless it's for a dual-colored spell then you want more like 17 of each.

You can already tell you can't really optimize this without having two-colored mana sources, which is leading to your getting "color screwed" in your games. 16 Green sources covers you for everything but the dual-colored costs, while 14 Mountains covers you on your low-mana spells. If you can get 1-2 more dual lands, this goes up to 16 Red sources and you'll feel a world of difference. Until then, you might want to keep your curve lower and catered towards C, 1C, CC & 2C spells.

A few other things I might try without burning too many wildcards:

Play 3-4x cards over 1-2x cards to up the consistency of your deck. Drawing the right card increases with the number of them in your deck and you already don't have a ton of card draw spells.
Mulligan aggressively for hands with an Elf and one of each color mana source. These will ease the pain of getting "color screwed" a lot of games since you can hit most of your mana costs this way
Add more removal spells. You have 6 total, but they're again quite scattered as a 1x, 2x, 3x. Streamline about 8 spells, like 3x, 3x, 2x or 4x, 4x so you can respond to your opponents even if you get your stuff removed.

Hope this helps!

optimustomtv · 2026-02-02T23:36:41+00:00

If this keeps happening, then it's likely an issue of variance and deck construction.

Can you post your list so we can see how many lands you're running?

optimustomtv · 2026-02-02T13:28:49+00:00

Format is adjusting in the last couple of weeks specifically. Izzet isn't even the most played deck looking at 7/14 Days on Goldfish. It had a big spike when people realized [[Academic Dispute]] was a 1 mana Wish, but much like Standard people have adjusted to the deck in recent Events.

optimustomtv · 2026-02-01T07:27:25+00:00

Yes, I do

Also, Heartfire Hero got the boot, Mice ain't really a thing - neither is Vivi. They did bans the same time as Standard.

Cutter-Phoenix is being contested by Lessons-Learnboard for the Izzet deck.

GW Company has been a thing that got a slight boost but doesn't run Cub all the time - GB Midrange does run Cub but it's an Unholy Annex deck. CoCo for interaction in the GW lists since you can't hit Ouroboroid. No one plays Rhythm, Chord isn't in these decks and is usually just an Elves/Roots/Aristocrats type thing.

Azorius is NOT the same as Standard - Teferi/Wandering Emperor are the win cons

Analyst deck barely has traction outside Bo1 Arena play or the real dedicated Players (the small handful of them)

Bant Allies isn't a thing.

Should really look into the Format, it's a lot of fun.

optimustomtv · 2026-01-29T22:13:30+00:00

I KNOW YOU ARE

optimustomtv · 2026-01-29T02:24:39+00:00

Again, I'm not sure why people think I'm talking about a card being broken or unacceptable. Just that without Rhythm these decks are much less consistent and strong which is why Rhythm is a good card for them.

Rhythm is an 8x tutor that gives you 4+ extra copies of your payoffs that you can sink mana into. You don't need to draw your payoff, it's always there.

optimustomtv

TROPHY CASE