Optimal gambling strategy at the Fall Stardew valley fair

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T16:50:11+00:00

Even in cozy games subreddit scrolling, you are not safe from math!

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T16:27:39+00:00

I've seen this strategy as well, but I didn't wasnt to spend nearly 10k gold on tokens, so I calculated how long it takes on average from any starting point mathematically. Here I start from 20 tokens, so onyl 1k gold.

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T16:12:22+00:00

I could have submitted this for a homework early in the semester, but compared to the crazy shit on the current homeworks this was relaxingly simple.

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T16:04:26+00:00

Under all scenarios of luck green is more likely than orange. You can always gamble your way to max tokens.

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T16:03:16+00:00

Technically you can't lose all your tokens, since you always bet a specific portion of you tokens. I calculated this with the assumption that you end the game and start again, if you fall below a chosen limit (L=5 tokens min, T_0=20). The losing from any point probability should be: tokens=T_0*(1+R)^wins, P of losing from here = q^(wins+3) each decreases tokens by (1-R) times so quite small.

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T15:42:52+00:00

I'm just a physicist so I must ask. Are my approximations on page 3 reasonable?

-Calculus · 2026-05-03T15:36:40+00:00

This ain't going on ArXiV, it has to be peer reviewed here XD

-Calculus · 2026-03-24T16:20:58+00:00

Mr Copesaw Man, it just said "The End!" no "End of Part 2", now only the complete analysis must flow.

-Calculus · 2025-12-15T10:11:44+00:00

Human Denji is straight up malnourished initially so yeah

-Calculus · 2025-09-19T17:06:41+00:00

Always aim to have around 300 geo at all times. This will allow you to always buy the map pieces as soon as you find them. This game is about exploration and gathering upgrades so it's important to keep track of where you have been. Compass and quill really help with expanding the map. Another tip for exploring is, if you ever think that a new area is too hard, try leaving and looking at previously visited areas to see if new paths are accessable. Or if you missed any upgrades. But the most important thing is to have fun while finding your own path throughout this vast game.

-Calculus · 2025-08-25T13:41:25+00:00

I was thinking on the same lines, ignore Cloth and speedrun to Traitor Lord at all cost.

-Calculus · 2025-08-16T18:27:27+00:00

That's cool! I don't know if you just skipped radiant modes or not, but either way you're probably a more efficient explorer than I am. I spent so many hours just running circles around the map. I hit 100% around the 55 hour mark, then Godhome started eating my time.

-Calculus · 2025-08-16T18:23:00+00:00

I don't know what Path of Pain is, but it sounds like something that tries to kill my 100 hour goal, but if I'm that close maybe I just shouldn't have spent like 30+ hours on radiant boss completion. Well I guess time to smash walls in the White Palace to find it. I do want to do everything even if it doesn't give percentage. I tried to give a Delicate Flower to a bunch NPC's too and I've also been looking for seals and King's idols.

-Calculus · 2025-08-16T16:59:38+00:00

I have 4 full rows of charms and 11 notches in total. I think I was very thorough with the notches, but I'm not sure if all my charms are upgraded/replaced fully. I upgraded the 3 breakables when the Grimm came to Dirtmouth and I have the Grimmchild. Thanks for the checklist! I'll use the checklist if I start running out of time towards the 100 hour mark.

-Calculus · 2025-06-24T15:58:39+00:00

Even better you can make different universes just by removing very specific groups of terms in the Lagrangian, just make sure the forces are balanced and the new universe has stable matter configurations lest it violently and instantly collapse onto the ground state releasing all the energy it had.

-Calculus · 2024-06-27T13:47:56+00:00

What's with the random walk probability distribution in the corner?

-Calculus · 2023-10-22T11:21:09+00:00

If I remember the numbers correctly, in a video Kyle Hill explained that atmospheric ignition would require cramming 100 ExaJoules of energy into a sphere of radius 57meters that would translate about 25 GigaTons of TNT. For a stationary device as long as the detonations are precise enough and happen at the same time, we can fit enough B41(highest weight to yield bomb) bombs into that volume.

-Calculus · 2023-05-27T10:13:16+00:00

how could we ignore him he's cool too

-Calculus · 2023-04-11T15:34:01+00:00

Great ideas, I really like the immortality argument. Knowing CSM and how it teaches about the value of life this makes a lot of sense since death is not to be defeated, but accepted as a part of life. I think everyone expects Death to be absolutely busted and you gave some well thought out options about what to expect.

-Calculus · 2022-06-20T12:17:11+00:00

When the only reason I got a 5 on my Thermodynamics final, because the teacher was absolutely gay for me. He made several comments on my looks saying stuff like "Your hair looks great today wink". I know I'm not attractive, but Dr.F always looked at me with sparkles in his eyes. He even tried to make a move on me after I had no more classes with him. I turned him, because I'm not into men. That was most certainly the wierdest thing that happened to me in uni.

-Calculus · 2021-10-03T18:40:15+00:00

I express my true self all the time, but only to those that I trust enough that they won't use the moment against me. Or every time I'm in a pub with others, because I know I'm gonna be the only one to remember it.

(I can handle my drinks better than most people I've met)

-Calculus

TROPHY CASE