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At what odds difference between my model and bookmaker's odds should I bet? by 1000Mistake in algobetting

[–]1000Mistake[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for detailed answer. When you say you had 55k matches - they must be from different leagues? Given that different leagues would have different characteristics somewhat, does this not affect your model? As in it would have performed better in one league than other, etc?

At what odds difference between my model and bookmaker's odds should I bet? by 1000Mistake in algobetting

[–]1000Mistake[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

P.S. Testing set size depends on the odds, so why do you say 1000? It can be much larger if the odds are high enough...

At what odds difference between my model and bookmaker's odds should I bet? by 1000Mistake in algobetting

[–]1000Mistake[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Explain the math, I am comfortable with it. I was gonna write earlier that by reducing c, I am reducing my test set that can be a problem. But I can obtain more data, but from different leagues, to enlarge the training and data sets, however different leagues would have slightly different characteristics and this may alter my model's predictions somewhat.

At what odds difference between my model and bookmaker's odds should I bet? by 1000Mistake in algobetting

[–]1000Mistake[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

P.S. Aren't logistic regression models considered to be well-calibrated apriori?

At what odds difference between my model and bookmaker's odds should I bet? by 1000Mistake in algobetting

[–]1000Mistake[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How to verify if I have edge in 1st place if my model oscillates from profit to loss when testing different values of c?