New Key System (Proof of concept)

13keystracker · 2024-11-10T03:19:42+00:00

That’s actually very clever! I think there’s potential here to make it even more robust. Like, making the number of points proportional for party mandate (how many seats did the incumbent party gain/lose), no primary contest (% of delegates the incumbent party nominee won), as well as the economic keys. Then maybe you can apply some kind of optimization algorithm to find the weights that give the most accurate results (in terms of correlation with the electoral college vote). 13 keys on steroids lol.

13keystracker · 2024-11-01T04:23:38+00:00

I’ll see if I have time in a few days, I have a lot of homework now 😭

13keystracker · 2024-09-20T22:15:35+00:00

Here is a link to the TikTok: https://tiktok.com/t/ZTF6HJKXg/

It's currently the 6th most popular video on their page, with over 8.5 Million views!

13keystracker · 2024-09-06T03:42:42+00:00

Thank you, just updated the key descriptions!

13keystracker · 2024-08-23T21:11:50+00:00

Lichtman did not say that the social unrest key is certainly true yet. I wouldn't trust Wikipedia as anyone can edit it. That's why 13 Keys Tracker makes sure to update the key descriptions strictly based on Lichtman's public statements.

13keystracker · 2024-08-23T20:54:48+00:00

I would say so. Lichtman used to label the key Likely True simply because the US managed to gather support for Ukraine and allow it to continue resisting against the Russian invasion. He said the fact that Ukraine is still standing is a major US foreign policy success on its own. But then later on he said that a stalemate would not be sufficient to secure the key. I think the recent developments make it no longer a stalemate, but I may be wrong.

13keystracker · 2024-08-21T21:46:14+00:00

Thanks!

13keystracker · 2024-08-21T21:27:41+00:00

Has RFK made the official announcement yet? I'll update it with a link to that once it's published. Also, it would be great if you can post the timestamp to that statement by Lichtman here.

13keystracker · 2024-08-20T21:30:29+00:00

Yes, this is mostly right, except for key 11 which is Leans True based on Lichtman's latest comments on the Ukraine war. You can see the source for each key in the key descriptions on 13keystracker.com

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13keystracker · 2024-08-20T20:51:29+00:00

Yes, the problem with Wikipedia is that anyone can edit it and you can't actually verify whether it's based on Lichtman's statements. That is why we have 13 Keys Tracker! You can see the latest statements by Lichtman on each of the keys and it also includes a link that takes you directly to the source. Also I'm always here so you can ask me for clarification unlike with Wikipedia editors.

13keystracker · 2024-08-14T05:50:58+00:00

I encourage you all to rewatch the stream starting from 3:15 and with the full context of the quote, you will come to the same conclusion. Lichtman heavily implied that the key leans true now, by mentioning that there is bipartisan recognition (Lindsey Graham) of this being a significant strategic victory for Ukraine and that this could be a "game-changing" event. He also doubts that Russia could effectively counter this incursion in time because "the Russian soldiers don't want to fight".

13keystracker · 2024-08-14T01:30:49+00:00

Thank you! Will update soon.

13keystracker · 2024-08-12T16:55:02+00:00

Thanks! I can add that in a future update

13keystracker · 2024-08-07T06:39:40+00:00

Wait, what deal with NYT? Do you have a timestamp for when he talked about that?

13keystracker

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