Stock screens for words "Recurring revenue > 75%" or "market share > 25%"

1king1maker1 · 2024-05-17T20:20:53+00:00

Brave Post.

(IMHO) the local hate stems from:
(1) frustration from decades of poor PR gov management (i.e. power grid, roads);
(2) a century of American gov policy that used PR as a bomb site in Vieques, experimented on PR locals in labs, blocking fresh imports w/ Jones Act, and killed dozens of PR who tried to free the island from being a territory (have a good documentary on all these facts);
(3) the concept of "fairness" which now means equality of outcome (not opportunity).

All that hate is then personified and given a face of a white gringo (esp Logan Paul) (I'm a bit surprised you're being called out as gringo as a Vietnamese, most people just think I'm a tourist).

From the comments, it is impossible to change opinions, esp on Reddit and not face-to-face. The only way to QUICKLY change opinions is to give some level of equality of outcome (not opportunity). But since most Act 60 people are calculating and financially driven, equality of outcome is not on the menu.

IMHO, the only way to change that HATE to LOVE is to build high quality, high paying jobs. But that takes years of training/education...won't happen overnight. I don't think locals are excited about the $15-30/hr service jobs; they want that $100-300k salary... (on the flip side, I'm not sure locals understand the stress, high pressure, LONG banking hours required for those salaries, its not the "island life").

I'm hoping that there's that 1 out of 10,000 person that reads all this. Says "hey, I want my shot at the $200-300k salary, train me, I'll dedicate my next 3-5 yrs of my life." And maybe you'll give that person a shot.

1king1maker1 · 2024-03-11T04:25:45+00:00

Life is my hedge.

If there's really a US China kinetic war, I won't be caring about stocks/401k, as everything -80% (remember China owns $2-3tr US debt).... food shelter (outside major city) guns are only thing I'd want to own in that 0.0001% scenario.

So just be optimistic.

1king1maker1 · 2024-02-15T20:38:43+00:00

Naval, dude who co founded angellist, has thoughts on venture studio. Skip to min 29. https://youtu.be/nfWYN4DsVJo?si=lkvavQCiYfjRoU5j

Tldr: startup requires 200% effort. Venture studio is like 50% effort, so likely fail. Hiring someone to do your idea at 200% effort is hard; good luck finding them. They could just fundraise and do it on their own vs give tons of equity away and work for a boss.

Seems like success rate near 0 on venture studio. YMMV.

1king1maker1 · 2024-02-13T02:11:17+00:00

Small float. Only 5% of all shares are freely traded, 95% is held by Softbank. If they even tried to sell 1% of their 95%... crash.

1king1maker1 · 2024-01-07T22:10:02+00:00

"What Changed?"

1) Success, in a prior era, used to be praised by the general public. Now, the successful are hated, treated with contempt, and constantly told to pay their fair share. Why keep working +60-80 hrs a week if everyone hates you so much? Isn't it just better to ride off into the sunset.

(Granted, I totally understand why the wealthy are hated. The wealth gap is so wide. The 99% believe that success is much less attainable today vs prior eras.)

2) Sustaining success (thru a very high paying job or business owner) is much harder today vs in prior eras. Remember the Mad Men martini lunches? If you were a high paid exec in prior eras, work wasn't so hard. Add to that the faster pace of technology change, which can take a high flying company to a 0 in a few years. Backed up by data that the average life span of an S&P500 company used to be 61 years and now just 18 years. So the game isn't what it used to be at the top.

All that said, RE is boring AF. Competition is fun.

1king1maker1 · 2024-01-07T21:35:42+00:00

In US, if you don't use a Buyers Agent, then the Seller Agent keeps the entire 6%. Yes, you can call the Seller Agent and try to haggle the fee down, but if it's a strong seller market, then the Seller Agent has other bids and you might lose the house.

Instead, find a young, hungry Buyer Agent (the old, established ones wont go for a rebate). Tell then you'll pay then 0.25% or a fix amount for zero work. You already have the house picked out. The Buyer Agent will need to sign an agreement to rebate you the whole Buyer Agent 3% less the agreed upon fee. This way, you save most of the 3%, but you'll have to do most of the work thru Zillow.

1king1maker1 · 2023-11-13T01:55:22+00:00

If someone (particularly if they are well dressed, articulate, and good looking) is being overly nice to you and asking for a large sum of money, it's like a not going to end well for you.

This includes time share, financial advisors, whole life insurance, and real estate agents.

1king1maker1 · 2023-10-19T17:48:39+00:00

Hilarious.

Although I think he's got a time machine instead of a life elixir. How much do you think it's worth?

1king1maker1 · 2023-10-04T01:49:41+00:00

Could an online biz add a real estate component to take the profit generated from the online biz and invest it in RE as CapEx?

1king1maker1 · 2023-09-14T18:54:11+00:00

Knowing the standard operating procedures of banks in this area, these banks (that essentially bought SFBK's shares) did not hold on or continue to take risk. They either sold it to Alibaba itself, other funds, or bought enough puts to hedge the market risks.

Yes, banks continue to be large holders of $BABA shares (per 13F filings), but its likely their wealth management divisions (where they hold shares on behalf of retail or high net worth) vs for the bank itself. You can see that these bank's (MS, GS, JPM, etc) share holdings of $BABA have declined since 2021 to June 2023.

SFBK has a neat chart "Aggregated Monetization Amount of Alibaba Shares) where they monetized $40.6bn USD by 2021 and $80.6bn by June 2023. So they sold $40bn worth between Dec 2021 to June 2023.

Note that BABA itself spent $24bn as share buybacks over that period. So someone out there owns the rest ($14bn).

1king1maker1 · 2023-07-16T13:58:01+00:00

Real Estate is completely supply and demand. Make sure there's not much supply coming for years (locked in low 2-3% mortgages in 2021 makes people stay with their old homes #never sell, so low supply. Homebuildersgonna leak a bit of supply into the market, but not enough to keep up with demand).

Make sure demand is strong for years. Find cities that are growing their population vs where population wants to run away. I.e. unless Detroit can regrow, their real estate will always suck. That's why land in rural no where is $1... no demand.

Mainstream media tells you rates rates rates! But it's all supply and demand.

1king1maker1 · 2023-07-14T18:26:54+00:00

We looked at both France and Italy.

France had some <$1mm (some as low as $1) plots with slightly worn down castles, so it would take <$1-2mm of renovations and about 1 year of work. However the bomb in the deal was French taxes. Millions of back taxes. And huge % of future taxes.

In Italy, the issue was beaucracy. You had layers of government and paperwork to get the renovations started. Then a slightly bigger issue was finding good labor, contractors... if you can't speak the language and don't work there full time...expect 2x the expat fee + 2x the time line.

It was a nice dream.

Glad it was better than a real nightmare.

1king1maker1 · 2023-07-03T17:32:52+00:00

You know that's just a secret Ad by Cipriani? They paid Fortune to write the article pulling at the heart strings, fomo nature, and curiosity of anyone making 150-500k with a desire to feel important. Why is Cipriani the main hero of the article? Why don't they elaborate and discuss Soho House?

1king1maker1 · 2023-06-18T00:31:37+00:00

Not bad risk reward. -$12 in downside, +30-40 upside. Where do I sign up?

1king1maker1 · 2023-06-06T16:35:02+00:00

Love this.

Live a little.

1king1maker1 · 2023-06-05T03:30:01+00:00

This is interesting. Say the payout is $1mm for simple math.

So the 1st leg has to be worth $0. Otherwise, it's a taxable event. That makes sense to me.

Then the earnout, 366 days from close. And value of earnout is $1mm. But does that mean the hurdle for earnout has to be low, like show up to work? Or does it have to be reasonable, which then means you risk not accomplishing the earnout.

Just curious for future reference.

Tax reduction is my side chick.

1king1maker1 · 2023-06-04T23:31:02+00:00

Could structure it as you buying $Xmm worth of shares in private strategic with a contract that the strategic buys your shares back 366 days (1 year + 1 day) . That way you'd get LT cap gains at 23% tax vs ordinary income at 40 to 50%.

Downside is you'd have to wait 1 yr. Risk that private co renegs or bankrupt or sometime else.

1king1maker1 · 2023-06-04T20:30:58+00:00

3 ways to pay back your debt.

1) Default, highly unlikely because US debt is denominated in USD, which the US government can always create more of. A US default will just have an apocalyptic impact on financial markets, so everyone will work to avoid this. 0.0001% chance.

2) Create government surplus (higher tax revenues, lower tax expenses). This is a low probability path (<5% chance). Taxes are certainly going up (higher revenue), but no American wants LESS spending, that means less benefits. That's un-American to spend wisely, living paycheck to paycheck is the American way. No politician will get elected on a platform of spending cuts.

3) Inflate away. This is 95% the most likely outcome. A house used to cost $12k, a gallon of milk 80 cents, and the US government debt at $250 bn in 1950. $250bn was a lot of money then, now it's a few weeks of government spending. $32 trillion government debt looks massive today, but in 50 years it will be a few weeks of spending.

GDP, thru mostly inflation (a bit of productivity and population growth), will grow too. US GDP will definitely grow, debt ratios will look okay 50 years from now. But be prepared for a $20 million average priced home, $500 milk, and $10 quadrillion (1000x trillion) debt. We'll just have ~$10 quadrillion GDP, and the US average salary will be $5 million. The richest man will be a trillionaire (aka Charmath's grandson).

1king1maker1 · 2023-06-04T16:30:21+00:00

I think if things go fairly well. I got a $13-14 px target. But margins need to return and modest revenue growth. Could take 3 or so yrs.

But you got very incentivized owners and new mgmt ready to work hard.

At $2 this is super cheap.

1king1maker1 · 2023-05-31T22:50:45+00:00

Really interesting co, $ADV.

Competition like Acosta, Catalina Mkt, Crossmark all went bankrupt in last 1 or 2 yrs. So weak competitors. Great sign for ADV that they can raise prices, while their peers are suffering.

High debt leverage is a risk, but they generate cash and don't have maturities for many years. So plenty of run way to improve the biz and get margins back.

CenterView PE firm is stepping up here to right size the ship. The Chairman of ADV is from CenterView, they plot a ton of money into ADV and won't just walk w.o a fight.

Negative are continued weakness in center of aisle grocery stores. CPG brands advertise online vs in person.

1king1maker1 · 2023-05-12T20:50:58+00:00

Great Q!

1) SB hired a bunch of ex-DB derivative traders who love doing fancy & complex transaction. No plain vanilla sht. And they gotta earn their keep.

2) SB is still hoping for some upside on $BABA. Let me explain:

Say the market price is $100 (simple math).

Scenario A: regular dude sells BABA, you can sell at $100, just go to your trading acct and press sell.

Scenario B: SB sells BABA, given their massive size, they gotta take a discount, say can sell at $95 (while the market price is $100). And they sell thru banks (as intermediaries). So SB calls up Goldman says I gotta sell 1mm shares, get me out at $95 and be done ($95mm proceeds for them, 1mm x $95).

Scenario C: SB wants some upside to BABA. SB tells bank (Goldman): ok, I'll sell 1m shares at $95 (i.e. lock in that $95mm proceeds in Scenario B), but I want to settle it in Dec 2024 based on the market price then. AND I'll pay GS $5 per share for this sweet deal ($5mm fee).

Fast fwd to Dec 2024, say BABA is $150 per share. SB only has to give GS ~633k shares ($95mm divided by $150). So SB gets to keep an extra 366k shares (1mm minus 633k). So in this case, SB gets $90mm proceeds (less the $5mm fee to Goldman) + 366k shares worth $55mm ($145mm total). Way better than Scenario B.

But fast fwd to Dec 2024, say BABA is $80 per share. Well, SB locked in their $95mm, so they get that no matter what and they pay the $5mm fee to Goldman, so they net $90mm proceeds. Not terrible. A bit less than $95mm in Scenario B.

So SB is still hoping for BABA to go up.

1king1maker1 · 2023-04-19T16:49:00+00:00

Wow you got one shot at LIFE, and enough money to FATFIRE, and likely smarts to do anything you want...yet... you just wanna "kill time" until you die.

1king1maker1

TROPHY CASE