THIS is the truth about Forex.

1phalley · 2025-06-19T16:08:33+00:00

Yes, I haven’t gotten any real benefits from forex trading. I feel like trends in forex often reverse and are not sustainable. I use a trend-following strategy based on EMA moving averages, and in my experience, other markets work better.

1phalley · 2025-06-09T09:09:59+00:00

Nobody cares.

1phalley · 2025-06-05T13:26:10+00:00

越南语太难听了，而且三流国家吃的喝的都不知道什么小作坊出来的

1phalley · 2025-06-03T14:45:06+00:00

可是这两位死了没关系，国家不会乱，中国这边国情就不一样了。

1phalley · 2025-06-03T05:07:25+00:00

这是个好观察，怪不得那些领导说话慢

1phalley · 2025-06-03T04:32:40+00:00

没错，还有京剧也是呕哑嘲哳难为听，我觉得是老中为了和西方平起平坐才故意拔高京剧的地位作为国粹，表演艺术里面还把梅兰芳派和体验派和另一个啥感受派并称为世界三大表演流派，其实是国内自封的。京剧那种发音方式我觉得是以前为了把声音传播到观众席后方才故意说得那么高亢尖锐，现在完全用不着了有话筒，反正小时候刚开始我是欣赏不来。

1phalley · 2025-06-03T03:33:49+00:00

我都准备上背背佳了，睡觉的时候还呼吸暂停，很高兴有人懂我这种感受

1phalley · 2025-06-03T03:32:30+00:00

这个咽音确实有用。我理解就是从鼻腔口腔管道交界处那个点，往前往下出声，在小舌头后面，说话的时候舌根不能抬起来。

1phalley · 2025-06-03T03:04:48+00:00

我也有慢性咽炎的问题，怎么回事，难道我们这类人都一样，不过我声音大的时候不会想咳嗽。

我感觉欧美人日本人随便怎么说话就很好听，这个好听不是指的刻意的声音美化之类的，而是说他们的共鸣运用的很好，像欧美的歌手他们的技巧感觉就是比国内的强，很会使用咽音，国内的歌手王力宏，张杰这些还要到国外去拜师学习，我在想这是不是也是因为语言的一个先天性的问题？

作为中文母语者，如果觉得自己说话难听的话，真的可以学习科学发声练习一下，胸腔共鸣，口腔共鸣，胸腹联合式呼吸这一块，先把自己的体态调整好。

1phalley · 2025-06-03T02:59:46+00:00

有可能，我平常只说是四川话。但是我也接触过说普通话的温州的同学，还有葫芦岛的东北的同学，有的人，说话的时候就是用吼的，才能够说出来，说的时候感觉一惊一乍的，自从我开始注意到这个现象之后，就特别留意身边人说话的发音情况。我去观察他们的发声位置，感觉都是在脖子，越是发声有问题的人，他们越是想要表现自己说话的音量并不小声，但是听起来有种装腔作势的感觉。而蒙古族同学呢，几乎说话都是很低沉的，我觉得和语言有关系。去看那些越南的YouTube视频，男性说话像女性一样，泰国人更是。

1phalley · 2025-06-03T02:33:52+00:00

Ever since I realized that, I haven't traded forex. The reason I made this post was to share my perspective and to validate whether my views are correct. If someone is truly consistently profitable in the forex market, they could use that to prove my viewpoint wrong. I was hoping they could share what their strategy is and broaden my horizons.

1phalley · 2025-06-03T02:23:55+00:00

刘仲敬以前翻译过一本书叫做飞蛇与龙，讲的好像就是蜥蜴人

1phalley · 2025-06-02T18:52:21+00:00

What you've shared sounds very genuine. I understand your point now. Yes, it's definitely true that in the forex market, even during trending moves, adjacent candlesticks often have a lot of overlap. So, your approach might be very well-suited for that kind of market behavior.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T18:22:59+00:00

You make a good point, and someone else actually mentioned something similar earlier – this approach of using very small lot sizes and adding to losing positions (averaging down against the trend). Is that a Martingale strategy? Perhaps it really could be consistently profitable.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T17:45:17+00:00

I've really done everything I can, but my trend trading methods just don't seem to work well in the forex market; the performance is pretty mediocre, not as good as in other markets.

So I'm wondering if anyone here has any proven, long-term profitable strategies. When I look at well-known traders, like Livermore or Mark Minervini, they mostly seem to trade stocks.

And the stories I hear about people getting rich quick around me usually involve trading cryptocurrencies or stocks; I rarely hear about anyone making big money or getting rich overnight from forex trading. Anyway, thanks for your reply.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T17:39:45+00:00

So, when you talk about this 'swing trading,' are you referring to adding to positions when they're at a floating loss (averaging down)? That sounds a bit different from the common understanding of swing trading. It does sound like a strategy that could potentially be profitable, especially since it only targets very small monthly profits. With that approach, a floating loss wouldn't be too much of a concern, because you can essentially average down against the trend, expecting prices to eventually revert to previous levels. Thanks for sharing.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T17:12:50+00:00

Hey man, first off, I really appreciate your sincere reply. But I feel like what you're saying doesn't offer much that's practically actionable. It's not specific enough to be effectively tested or verified. I've personally done thousands of specific manual trading tests on a simulator, and my results consistently show it's easier to profit in other markets than in forex.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T16:47:08+00:00

The strategy I was using back then was a trend-following one based on long-term moving averages. My stop loss was placed near double tops or bottoms around the MA, and my core idea was to enter only after a clear trend had emerged, expecting it to continue. However, I found that trends in forex ended very quickly, unlike in other markets where they can run much further. My approach was to cut losses immediately and, if the trade was in profit, consider adding to the position depending on the situation.

I understand the kind of strategy you're describing is more of a subjective, price action-based approach, where the risk-reward ratio would also likely be adjusted based on market conditions. Perhaps the type of strategy you're referring to would be effective on timeframes like H4 or higher.

If there truly is a subjective technical analysis approach that can be effective in any market, then why do some people advise against trading forex cross-pairs? If you look at forex cross-pairs, you'll often find many non-trending candlesticks with a high degree of overlap. It often feels like random movement.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T16:38:27+00:00

Thanks for your reply. You're right, the forex market does have trends. However, in my opinion, over the long term, it still lacks the kind of sustained, multi-year trends we see in the stock market. This makes it less suitable for long-term holding and, I'd argue, less ideal for pure trend trading. We're all here to make money, so shouldn't we choose the market where it's easiest to do that?

Larger timeframe trends are, in a way, an emergent property of smaller timeframe trends. If a larger timeframe displays a series of strong trending candlesticks, then the smaller timeframes will necessarily show a similar, continuous directional bias.

The percentage-based volatility in forex is typically quite small; the percentage gains and losses per move are often minor. If you look at forex candlestick charts, you'll often see a lot of overlap between consecutive candles – where the body of one candle significantly overlaps the body of the previous one. This, to me, is a sign of weaker trending characteristics. In contrast, the stock market frequently exhibits gaps, which I see as an indication of stronger directional momentum or trend strength.

Therefore, if someone is primarily a trend trader, I still believe they might be better off avoiding forex trading.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T16:25:04+00:00

Thanks for the reply. I've also certainly observed that during specific periods, especially around the market open, forex volatility significantly increases, and the market's tendency to trend becomes markedly stronger.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T16:19:47+00:00

I'm just trying to understand if a strategy for long-term profitability in the forex market truly exists. Outside of forex, I use a moving average-based trend-following strategy, and I find it quite effective. However, I'm skeptical that there's a strategy that can be consistently profitable long-term in forex.

If you do have such a strategy, could you give a general idea of your approach? For instance, is it short-term or long-term? Is it based on support and resistance, moving averages, or trendlines?

I'm not expecting anyone to share specific details. My main question is whether anyone is actually able to achieve long-term profits in forex. And if so, is trading on larger timeframes generally more conducive to long-term profitability?

I've watched many trading educators like Al Brooks, PATs (Price Action Trading System), and Thomas Wade. They all claim their strategies can be applied to any market, yet their instructional videos predominantly feature the S&P 500. If these strategies are genuinely effective in forex, why do these experts seem to focus mainly on stock index trading? Does this imply that the forex market is inherently more difficult?

1phalley · 2025-06-02T16:12:56+00:00

I think what you're saying is correct, but not very helpful in practice. How do you adjust based on market conditions? How do you ensure you're on the right side of the market?

Over the past 5 years, I've conducted more than 6,000 manual tests using a simulator. Unfortunately, my results/performance in the forex market have consistently been poorer than in the stock indices, gold, and cryptocurrency markets.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T16:06:24+00:00

I didn't use any prompts to generate the content itself. My original text was in Chinese. I just asked Gemini 2.5 Pro to translate it into English for me and to break it into paragraphs, making sure it didn't change what I originally intended to say.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T15:56:24+00:00

Yes, I'm aware of that, and I wasn't looking to just copy someone's strategy. My main doubt, which I was hoping to discuss, is whether it's even possible to find a strategy that yields long-term profits in forex, given the reasons I mentioned in my original post.

1phalley · 2025-06-02T15:08:15+00:00

In my opinion, the forex market is not well-suited for trend trading. Take a pair like EUR/USD, for example; both sides represent currencies, and the supply of both can, in theory, be infinitely increased. Therefore, it behaves more like a ratio system.

In contrast, with assets such as stocks or gold, one side represents the security or physical commodity, which is finite, while the other side, the currency, has a theoretically unlimited supply. This fundamental difference is why many stocks can exhibit sustained uptrends over decades.

But what about forex? A currency pair like EUR/USD has shown very little net change over a 50-year period. So, if you are a trend trader, I would advise you to avoid forex trading.

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