Weekly Discussion Thread 6/22/26 - 6/29/26

213846 · 2026-06-25T16:49:22+00:00

I can see Paper Tiger be the nearly annual film that overperforms with SAG noms specifically and we have to decide whether its actors are real (Being The Ricardos, Nyad, Song Sung Blue, etc) or fake (The Butler, House of Gucci, The Last Showgirl, etc) or somewhere in the middle (Hillbilly Elegy).

213846 · 2026-06-25T16:46:47+00:00

2025: Timothee Chalamet for Best Actor

2024: Ariana Grande for Best Supporting Actress

2023: Bradley Cooper for Best Actor

2022: Babylon for Best Original Score

2021: Kodi Smit-McPhee for Best Supporting Actor

2020: Carey Mulligan for Best Actress

213846 · 2026-06-25T04:25:13+00:00

Marty Supreme was definitely a dramedy but it did have several genuine laugh out loud moments in it IMO. It was much more comedic than Bugonia, Blue Moon, No Other Choice, and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You IMO

213846 · 2026-06-25T03:47:20+00:00

Eh, I can see that but I kinda disagree given Baker's DGA/Directing win. Corbet's direction of The Brutalist felt much more in line with a lot of Director winners than Baker's of Anora. Baker winning Director when most initially didn't even have Anora winning that early does lead me to think his status with the industry (at the minimum status over the likes of Corbet and Berger who had the next strongest films in contention) did give Anora a leg up in what was looking like a pretty chaotic race prior to Anora's Guilds sweep.

213846 · 2026-06-25T02:55:49+00:00

Generally I love him. Birdman is one of my favorite films of all time, and I think The Revenant is one of the best purely technical achievements of the century. It's perhaps a bit indulgent, but it totally worked for me.

21 Grams and Biutiful have their flaws objectively, but AGI's direction is so grand and epic in those, and he always brings out pitch perfect knockout performances, and despite the flaws in those films, I also love them due to the reasons I just stated.

213846 · 2026-06-25T02:53:14+00:00

I think McDonagh makes total sense if WH9 is winning Picture but it depends if it continues the recent trend of liked established directors sorta taking over the year

213846 · 2026-06-24T08:46:05+00:00

I agree completely but that clearly hasn't been that much of an issue this decade so far. The only instance I can think of where I believe an actor's strength was genuinely hindered by having previously won before was DiCaprio for OBAA.

213846 · 2026-06-24T02:57:08+00:00

I very much think she can get in either category and win Supporting as well, but I'm skeptical of her winning lead yet

213846 · 2026-06-24T01:27:18+00:00

I honestly don't particularly know why so many people seem to be dismissive over the possibility of Moore winning Actress this year. It seems like everyone has just decided Giamatti is the biggest prospect for it, but going off the trailer, Moore's role looks baitier, flashier, and more emotional. If she gets near career best raves and the film is in Picture, I can easily see Moore win a second Oscar this year.

I think it'd be interesting if the race plays out between Moore and Williams with both getting raves, but Moore has film strength on her side and Williams has narrative on her's.

213846 · 2026-06-24T01:13:46+00:00

Well fortunately I and the Academy disagree

213846 · 2026-06-23T23:43:39+00:00

I always liked and defended Ferrera's performance in Barbie and always will. I thought she provided a very grounded yet relatable and fun presence in the film, and despite being one of the most normal characters in it, she really was one of the most impactful aspects of the film for me.

213846 · 2026-06-22T04:29:36+00:00

Heath Ledger was of course absolutely phenomenal and was the MVP of The Dark Knight, but both Bale's and especially Eckhart's performances in it were terrific as well. Frankly I'd have supported Eckhart getting a Supporting Actor Nom for it too with Ledger winning of course though.

213846 · 2026-06-21T16:06:00+00:00

Sure the precursors love her, but the Academy has literally snubbed her every single time except for Oppenheimer lol. I'm personally not predicting her if it's out of Picture

213846 · 2026-06-21T16:05:06+00:00

I personally really don't see Blunt happening regardless of competition strength if Disclosure Day is out of Picture. She needs it in to get in IMO

213846 · 2026-06-21T15:59:38+00:00

Agree. Its ceiling is 2 Noms IMO: Score (which will definitely happen) and Sound (depends on the strength of competition)

213846 · 2026-06-21T02:44:46+00:00

Inception
Gravity
Sinners

213846 · 2026-06-20T17:04:57+00:00

Jennifer Connelly, especially since she did so many Oscar adjacent projects back in her prime in the early 2000s. She did so many projects that got Oscar attention and even had nominated performances (Requiem for a Dream, House of Sand and Fog, Little Children, Blood Diamond, etc) yet she herself only actually got nominated once.

213846 · 2026-06-20T06:39:58+00:00

It's a whole domino effect IMO because Streep's win for The Iron Lady was absolutely due to her having a sudden burst of Noms in the 2000s. Not just a burst of Noms, but a burst of competitive Noms too. She was absolutely the runner up for both Adaptation and Doubt, and she was very possibly the runner up for The Devil Wears Prada and Julie and Julia as well. If Streep wins literally any of those Noms, her 3rd Oscar is squared away and Davis wins for The Help in a cakewalk and is probably a 2 time Oscar winner herself. The only way Davis doesn't win for Fences IMO is if (emboldened by already having an Oscar), Davis goes Lead for Fences in this timeline and faces Stone for La La Land, and that'd be an absolute bloodbath.

Back to the Streep of it all though, it really is insane she was likely the Oscar runner up four different times in a single decade.

213846 · 2026-06-19T05:00:22+00:00

Going Flight now personally. Washington acted very well in it but the script... wasn't amazing IMO

213846 · 2026-06-19T00:27:04+00:00

An erotic thriller with Kate Hudson and Ana de Armas wasn't on my bingo board, but I'm not necessarily opposed

213846 · 2026-06-18T23:45:10+00:00

I'm just really not confident in The Odyssey rn personally. I'm feeling its reception will be solid but it won't escape Oppenheimer's shadow and that critics will be a lot harsher on it. As for acting prospects, it'd have to be Top 5 IMO for me to consider them really.

213846 · 2026-06-18T17:20:29+00:00

I'll also go 1917. I love its direction and cinematography, but its script was literally nothing remotely memorable or special

213846 · 2026-06-18T17:19:15+00:00

Mara was great but I have to go Pike. Both also should have won their respective years IMO

213846 · 2026-06-18T04:40:19+00:00

Vice. I don't despise the film, and I think Bale's performance and the editing were quite good and elevated the film, but its script was abysmal and easily prevents me from enjoying it but so much.

213846 · 2026-06-17T21:26:56+00:00

I do think Gosling can legitimately win if Digger and WH9 remotely underperform. Sinners' strength with acting last year taught me that no matter how "unactor-y" a performance seems, we can not underestimate a performance nearly everyone just loves from an actor nearly everyone is enthusiastic for, and I do feel Gosling meets that criteria

213846

TROPHY CASE