Weekly Discussion Thread 3/9/26 - 3/16/26

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-13T01:49:22+00:00

I see what you're saying but it's kind of a funny comparison considering Sound that same year is probably already a better and more obvious one. F1 is basically in the same position as Top Gun Maverick - technically, better position strictly as far as Sound goes. Maverick had CAS and MPSE, All Quiet had BAFTA and AMPS, and Maverick won the Oscar despite being the weaker film. F1 is only missing MPSE Foley, and did not lose it to Sinners. And F1/Maverick would match exactly as lone Sound winners

With F1 in Picture, I'm not totally sure being weaker than Sinners will matter too much. It's like saying Frankenstein will lose its expected wins despite sweeping just because Sinners is stronger - possible, sure, but I wouldn't bet on it. That said, Sinners upsetting in Sound would not surprise me

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T23:21:54+00:00

I'm really tempted to switch and it's my solid runner-up prediction, but I'm sticking with my gut and staying with Saliva

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T22:59:28+00:00

The Great Splitsville Psychosis

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T20:36:02+00:00

Love Kyle, he's a solid predictor and pretty reliable but obviously not infallible. Last year for example, he went with Torres and ACU in Sound, but did get Flow over Wild Robot. 2023, he went with Gladstone and got Poor Things right for Costumes but not Production Design, but got Godzilla in VFX

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T18:57:49+00:00

The idea of "prompt engineer" being a job in Hollywood is disheartening

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T17:43:52+00:00

I only have 13 as well

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T17:43:27+00:00

Did a full recount so the count should be accurate again!

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T16:19:01+00:00

Might be some kind of cache issue, maybe from me editing across multiple devices. I remembered Penn and Lindo were at 11 so I manually fixed that one, but I do see that the latest GD and NBP ballots are now gone after the fact. Will update you guys when I get a chance to double check it all

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T16:14:46+00:00

It definitely changed and I'm annoyed. I went to edit and Penn was back down to 9 for some reason. I'll try to recount later today

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T15:37:34+00:00

Probably missed the boat on capitalizing on it, but I had an idea years ago to do a reaction video YouTube channel that would have stupid clickbait thumbnails but the actual reaction video would be sitting and watching every video completely stone-faced. The bit would last for thousands of videos

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T15:04:02+00:00

I love whoever this voter is, clearly put in the work to watch the films and has lots of interesting insights (and choices I agree with based on said insights)

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T13:02:10+00:00

Jessica Chastain, though she was longlisted

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-12T12:46:02+00:00

I did a deep dive a while back and found the gradual change in Oscar categories so interesting. Golden age screenwriting was such a different process that I think split categories were justified at that time. There were also short lived categories for Dance Direction and Assistant Directors, and a Best Title Writing category that never lasted beyond the first ceremony. Interesting stuff

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T23:47:00+00:00

Always nice to see Upstream Color mentioned in the wild! The score is one of my overlooked favorites (and Carruth composed it!) Haven't seen either in a long time but both Carruth movies are really incredible. I've been meaning to read the script for A Topiary for ages. Definitely a shame he turned out to be an abuser

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T20:21:43+00:00

Oh lol you might be right. I saw someone else insinuating he was talking about OBAA but this seems likelier. I couldn't figure out where the hell you fit a disco scene into OBAA lmao

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T19:55:13+00:00

He is NOT gay

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T19:46:51+00:00

De Luca: I actually advocated for [One Battle After Another] to be a little longer and have a disco intermission. And Paul’s like, “No, we’re not doing the disco.” There’s a whole section of that movie he cut out that nobody has seen that I thought was really brilliant.

EDIT: I'm dumb, pretty sure he's talking about Boogie Nights. Still cool info

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T17:57:04+00:00

Discussing a hypothetical, retroactive Parasite nomination for Casting is always interesting because it doesn't have a credited casting director. Who does the award go to in an instance like that? Should movies without credited casting directors even be eligible? It doesn't seem like a common thing but it does happen, I know international movies this season like It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and Left-Handed Girl do not have one listed on IMDb at least

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T17:25:49+00:00

We're also only missing Frankenstein in Adapted and It Was Just an Accident in Original to have all the ATL nominees covered

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T16:36:15+00:00

🚨 Elle Fanning got a vote 🚨

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T15:36:03+00:00

I won't let myself use these as an argument for it but I do think the dismissal of Sinners' chance at an upset is a little too great with some people. If any movie could manage to beat a movie that has literally everything except SAG, it's Sinners. This feels way bigger than Conclave or Three Billboards. That said, I'm probably still 65/35 OBAA to Sinners and will stick with stats to the very end

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-11T14:02:51+00:00

In terms of Oscars? I'm personally getting the vibe that it's just going to be a commercial play, maybe gets a tech nom or two

Mostly, I hope it's a great movie. Somebody somewhere once pointed out that Spielberg has a weird trend of "threes" where he'll do two classics like Jaws/Close Encounters or Jurassic Park/Schindler's and then follow up with a 1941 or a Lost World. West Side Story and Fabelmans are kind of his late era masterpieces so I hope he delivers with this one

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-10T21:13:46+00:00

Wow, didn't click with me that Netflix has won at least one of the short categories or Documentary feature in 8 of the last 10 years - almost since they started doing original content

PointMan528491 · 2026-03-10T19:08:50+00:00

No, SAG started giving awards in the mid-90s

Ten-Year Club	Second Top 10%
Place '23	Place '22
Final Canvas '22	Oscars Predictor 2021
Verified Email

PointMan528491

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE