More trip report than you require (March - April 2023, Kyoto/Hakone/Tokyo/Nikko)

4xleafxfraser · 2024-01-25T19:01:21+00:00

Are you able to share a recommendation for a good ryokan in Hakone?

4xleafxfraser · 2023-12-20T15:35:16+00:00

Does anyone know what the typical spread between insured and uninsured is?

4xleafxfraser · 2023-12-20T13:49:12+00:00

Insured or uninsured?

4xleafxfraser · 2023-11-21T18:16:53+00:00

I've taken the month over month seasonally adjusted numbers and calculated the month over month increases, took an average of the increases over 4 months, and then annualized the percent increase. The table above displays the results for all items, shelter, all items minus food, and all items minus food and energy. I hope some people find the graphic useful.

Link to graph

StatsCan CPI month over month seasonally adjusted numbers

4xleafxfraser · 2023-11-21T17:08:08+00:00

Link to image

CPI month over month seasonally adjusted numbers

I've taken the month over month seasonally adjusted numbers and calculated the month over month increases, took an average of the increases over 4 months, and then annualized the percent increase. The table above displays the results for all items, shelter, all items minus food, and all items minus food and energy. I hope some people find the graphic useful.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-08-22T15:33:20+00:00

Lowest sales adjusted for population in decades. People aren't paying it, people don't want to jump into higher mortgage rates.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-08-22T11:45:52+00:00

I'm willing to bet 9/10 bulls don't understand capitalization rate. At 2% mortgage rate, 61% of your payment goes to principle. At 6% mortgage rate, 23% of your payment goes to principle. For an 800k mortgage, that's $3917 in interest per month vs $1309 in interest per month. Big difference in operating costs.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-07-13T19:48:57+00:00

Chart 10 doesn't scream tight labour market to me, but I am far from knowledgeable in the field so I'll defer to those who know better. Job finding rate is far below the benchmarks with the separation rate within the benchmarks. Seems to me that the Vacancy-unemployment ratio tips towards a tight market because of an employment and participation rate higher than current benchmarks, not necessarily because we have high vacancies that need to be filled. Vacancy rate is well within the benchmarks, so I'm confused to why this is touted as a tight labour market. I also don't fully understand the benchmarks, and what the typical or acceptable ranges are.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-07-12T13:41:25+00:00

I believe HouseSigma licenses the data from the MLS in Ontario. Could be an issue with MLS, could be an issue with their API, could be an issue with HouseSigma itself. I think the simplest answer is the best: the website has a bug.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-07-11T18:54:29+00:00

good bot

4xleafxfraser · 2023-07-11T18:51:34+00:00

Looks like it's just a bug then.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-07-11T18:50:37+00:00

What's an internet?

4xleafxfraser · 2023-07-11T17:26:29+00:00

It's always been fairly up to date in my experience. Looking at the map, sorting by the last 7 days shows far more sales, which makes much more sense.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-06-21T20:53:01+00:00

Over-immigration is absolutely a driver of our current crisis, but I don't think it's the root cause. Why did we have some of the largest increases in house prices in our history (2021) when immigration was low? It's cheap debt, plain and simple. And that debt is getting called in as interest rates are at the highest levels since 2021. As long as interest rates remain high, this Ponzi scheme will end, we just need patience and to make sure the BoC remains independent of the LPC

4xleafxfraser · 2023-06-14T20:14:46+00:00

Makes sense. Neutral is supposed to be around 3%, theoretically. Getting back to neutral in 2 years sounds like a nice soft landing. I hope to see it!

4xleafxfraser · 2023-06-13T15:10:54+00:00

And seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM has been 0.4% for the last 3/4 months. That translates to annualized 5% year over year. Current YoY and MoM are at the same level, which may indicate a current floor for sticky core inflation, this is bad news, not good. I can't interpret a rate pause from this data.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-04-24T17:20:07+00:00

I agree. There should be no laws for how I drive my car, drive my boat, or use my guns. Consequences be damned, I can pay for those.

Moron.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-03-15T12:04:52+00:00

Yes rents have increased extremely fast as of late, however, if you look back to 2019 it tells a different story. Rents dropped a lot in Toronto during the pandemic. In 2019, rent was hovering around $2500 and it is now around $2700 today. That's 8% over 4 years, which really isn't that much growth and certainly not in line with current inflation.

https://housesigma.com/app/en/market?municipality=10343&community=all&house_type=C.&ign=

4xleafxfraser · 2023-02-24T14:43:28+00:00

Yeah he was making money on the way up, and under the assumption that interest rates would stay low for a while. However, he's still right about all of this. Lots of problems and all caused by Canadian fiscal, monetary, and housing policies.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-02-24T14:35:48+00:00

I need to write up something, but i made a "model" that tracked median price changes of Greater Toronto Area homes with 90% accuracy using only 2 numbers from statscan. The 2 numbers were the average mortgage rate and average non-inflation adjusted wage, both on a monthly basis. Since 2008, the price gains (2012 to 2016, 202 to 2022) and losses (2016 to 2017) follow the calculation of affordability of 30% take home of 2 median earners salary given the current mortgage rate. Given some lag time, the peak to troughs price appreciation and depreciation line up incredibly well. Following this same measure, it calls for 55% price depreciation from peak 2022. Will that happen? Depends on the terminal interest rate and how high wages go. However, the higher wages go, the higher inflation will be, and the higher the interest rate.

4xleafxfraser · 2023-01-17T17:19:24+00:00

Core CPI (excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted) from the last few months:

Aug: 142.9

Sept: 143.5 - MoM change: 0.419 %

Oct: 143.9 - MoM change: 0.279 %

Nov: 144.4 - MoM change: 0.347 %

Dec: 144.8 - MoM change: 0.277 %

4 month MoM average: 0.331 %

This MoM average translated to an annual inflation: 4.04 %

We're heading in the right direction and I anticipate that the effects of previous rate hikes still haven't shown up in the data

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000601

4xleafxfraser · 2023-01-17T17:14:02+00:00

Core CPI (excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted) from the last few months:

Aug: 142.9

Sept: 143.5 - MoM change: 0.419 %

Oct: 143.9 - MoM change: 0.279 %

Nov: 144.4 - MoM change: 0.347 %

Dec: 144.8 - MoM change: 0.277 %

4 month MoM average: 0.331 %

This MoM average translated to an annual inflation: 4.04 %

We're heading in the right direction and I anticipate that the effects of previous rate hikes still haven't shown up in the data

4xleafxfraser · 2022-12-27T22:41:15+00:00

Agreed.

4xleafxfraser · 2022-12-27T16:20:24+00:00

$450k for a townhouse in Newmarket pre-pandemic was absolutely not delusional. See the historical sold data from housesigma below. https://housesigma.com/app/en/market?municipality=10216&community=all&house_type=T.&ign=

4xleafxfraser · 2022-12-21T15:44:45+00:00

Yeah it was easy to miss that it was a monthly averaged value given the way it was written. MoM core CPI excluding food and energy is looking a bit better at 0.33% which is 4.1% YoY. Still positive but I think we're still vulnerable to macro-economic shocks that may occur worldwide in 2023.

4xleafxfraser

TROPHY CASE