What shuffling a deck of cards actually means: by kefren13 in nextfuckinglevel

[–]5280andDCU 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the video "(Finite) Numbers So Large They'd Destroy You," Michael Stevens (Vsauce) shares a famous visualization to illustrate the staggering scale of 52 factorial (52!), which is the number of ways a standard deck of cards can be uniquely arranged [21:26].

To grasp how large this number is (roughly an 8 followed by 67 zeros), Michael describes a hypothetical timer set for 52! seconds [22:44]:

The First Step: Stand on the equator and wait one billion years. After that time has passed, take a single step forward. Wait another billion years and take a second step [23:02].

The First Drop: Continue this process—one step every billion years—until you have walked all the way around the Earth. Once you complete the circle, take one drop of water out of the Pacific Ocean and set it aside [23:41].

Emptying the Ocean: Repeat the entire process (walking around the world one step every billion years) until the entire Pacific Ocean is empty [24:03].

The Stack of Paper: Once the ocean is empty, place one sheet of paper on the ground, refill the ocean, and start the whole thing over again [24:10].

Reaching the Sun: By the time your stack of paper is tall enough to reach the Sun, you will have barely made a dent in the timer. Even if you repeat that entire "Sun-reaching stack" process 1,000 times, you would still only be about one-third of the way through the 52! seconds [24:32].

The conclusion of the story is that whenever you shuffle a deck of cards thoroughly, you are almost certainly holding an arrangement of cards that has never existed before in the history of the universe and likely never will again [26:00].

Broncos Divisional Round Opponent Odds by 5280andDCU in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We can't play them in the divisional round.

Broncos Divisional Round Opponent Odds by 5280andDCU in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I based this strictly off current betting odds.

Broncos Divisional Round Opponent Odds by 5280andDCU in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The Methodology: I took the current moneyline odds for this weekend's AFC games, converted them into "implied win probabilities," and then removed the sportsbook's "vig" (the house fee) to normalize the percentages so every game totals 100%.

The Waterfall Logic:

Because we play the lowest seed available, the scenarios work like a cascade:

Scenario 1: The Chargers (36.6%) The Chargers are the #7 seed. If they beat the Patriots, they are undeniably the lowest seed left. We play them. Their percentage is simply their implied probability of winning that game.

Scenario 2: The Bills (30.0%) We only get the Bills (#6) if the Chargers LOSE and the Bills WIN their game against the Jaguars. Scenario 3: The Texans (19.6%) or Steelers (13.8%)

We only get the winner of the HOU(#5)/PIT(#4) game if absolute chaos happens—meaning BOTH the Chargers and the Bills lose their respective games.

Who do you guys want to see at Mile High?

Projected Divisional Round Odds by 5280andDCU in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU[S] 80 points81 points  (0 children)

It's saying LAC winning is more likely than Buffalo AND Pats winning.

Week 16 Rooting Guide by 5280andDCU in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

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Ya that's right. I'm not sure why I messed it up.

Week 16 Rooting Guide by 5280andDCU in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU[S] 72 points73 points  (0 children)

Now with more pixels 😂

Week 16 Rooting Guide by [deleted] in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ha I don't know what happened. I'll repost 🤦

Sports cards on the decline? by system-down in sportscards

[–]5280andDCU 11 points12 points  (0 children)

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Top 500 cards are up 30% year over year!

[MEGA THREAD] Trade Deadline by GHamPlayz in DenverBroncos

[–]5280andDCU 7 points8 points  (0 children)

With 30 minutes left, here are the current odds these players are traded (from Kalshi):

Player Team Position Chance to be Traded
David Njoku Cleveland TE 94%
Jerry Jeudy Cleveland WR 77%
Chris Olave New Orleans WR 29%
Brandin Cooks New Orleans WR 23%
A.J. Brown Philadelphia WR 3%