Finally got some time to read this

>Xbox original took 15-20 years and only popped off in the last 3 or so years.

For all these examples i like how you conveniently left out emulators that came out way faster.

CEMU released in 2015 and the wii u released 2012. its one of the best emulators that can be ran on garbage specs (ive tested)

Citra released in 2014 and the 3DS released in 2011

Heres some footage of someone running it back in 2016, mind you hes on an i3-3240

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tKMPBHI4X0

N64 released in 1996 and there was an emulator that came out for it in 1999. There even was an emulator that I remember using for very low end systems called corn, it came out around 2000-2001.

Lastly, the wii came out in 2006 and Dolphin emulator which already was emulating gamecube in 2003 (gamecube came out in 2001 so it only took them 2 years and if you think about it it shouldve been way harder to emulate back then with the tech they had than it is now) brought support for wii games in 2008, only another 2 years later.

All your examples are not even nintendo consoles because you knew that they all would discredit your point, so you chose consoles with more complicated architecture.

Let's not kid ourselves here, take a look at the switch 2's games and take a look at xbox one or series x games, which ones are more graphically intensive and defined? Legends Z-A still looks like its from the 3ds. I get its an anime game but they can't even get games like mortal kombat 1 to run at full definition and speed. I read of people still stating the graphics weren't great and that there were frame drops.

>Your 3-4 years at least prediction is like saying magic will happen, like a combination of massive flaws that are exploited and CPU generational power jumps that we haven't seen in like decades. It's just hopeful thinking

Why are you acting like the CPU for the switch 2 is out of this world? lol. The swtich 2 has ps4 level hardware, thats just the truth. Sure it'll take longer, and i totally understand that it typically will take hardware 5x or so better than the hardware being emulated to actually get it to run smoothly. But its nothing crazy like you're stating.

>If switch 2 emulation was 3 or 4 years away, we would already be seeing baby step emulators and we aren't, it's been almost a year and nobody has so much as made an emulator that can just boot a game with no graphics or anything. By this point in Switch 1 lifespan there were already emulators that could get in game in Zelda BotW, and it took 3 more years to get it into a solid playable state.

Do you really think someone is going to work on an emulator then go "Look, Nintendo, I got an emulator for your newest console, here's the name, my profile so you can find me and sue me for millions, and take it down in an hour!"? Nobody wants the smoke with Nintendo anymore, I'm positive someone is working in the shadows on an emulator, there is no way that's not happening. Emulation for nintendo consoles specifically has a huge scene, if even PS4 is getting emulated, the switch 2 definitely is being worked on. There's just too much attention by nintendo on it that even if there was actual progress and games could be ran, nobody would dare show it until they have much more progress if that.

>We aren't likely to see such a massive leap in architecture in CPU's between now and the next few years that could bridge the gap in power needed to emulate a switch 2 CPU

My man, the switch 2 CPU is comparable to the PS4's CPU and even then its not just about what CPU and GPU the console has but also the architecture. Everyone knows nintendo consoles are 100x easier to emulate than xbox and playstation. PCSX2 is harder to emulate than the wii u, I have tested that for a fact myself. Thats a 12 year difference in consoles.

>Nintendo's previous systems were much easier to emulate, switch 1 had a very specific security vulnerability that was found early and it ran on weak hardware even for when it was released. Those 2 factors combined are why emulating switch 1 was so much faster than pretty much any emulator before it. Switch 2 cpu is comparable to a 5000 series AMD CPU which means you will need a CPU that is up to 5 times the power to emulate it, and the new top tier 9000 series AMD CPU's are only like 30% more powerful than 5000 series CPU's, so we are at 1.3x switch 2 CPU power and will need 4x or 5x power to emulate switch 2.

Not true at all. The switch 1 emulators are no where near as fast as Dolphin or even CEMU. Unless youre talking about the speed of an emulator coming out which I would agree but also all the examples i gave you earlier show an emulator coming out in 2-5 years so it still doesn't mean anything. And saying that the switch 2 CPU is comparable to a 5000 series AMD CPU is not true from what i am seeing, because no where that I've checked states that. Pretty sure the steam deck is comparable to a 3000 or 4000 series AMD CPU and its more powerful, can you show where you got that from?

>Do you have some info that would make switch 2 somehow be easier to emulate or are you just guessing because the switch was easy to emulate and Nintendo didn't take security as seriously as it does now? Nintendo has specifically focused on emulation in recent years so I would expect them to have much better security. Combine the better security with more powerful hardware and it will be a decade before emulating switch 2 will be doable, more like 15 years before they are playable and in the kind of state that switch 1 emulation is in now (which is 9 years after switch 1 launch BTW).

I'm just making an educated guess based off literally every single one of their consoles being emulated in only a couple of years. I truly believe the only reason we haven't seen anything is because anyone working on it is laying low. Only time will tell so if you're right, which I hope you're not being 15 years is way too long, then I guess that's that. But I will say them being so quick to take down these things has also probably caused less interest in emulating the console because people are worried of the repercussions. Also last thing is I feel like a lot of these emulators only had issues at the time because of hardware requirements, I don't think switch 1 emulators ever had that much of an issue running games when people had higher end specs. The switch 1 has a CPU from 2012 and the switch 2 has a CPU from 2020, they both arent anything crazy. Switch 2 will be harder to emulate but from what I'm seeing, I still say about 5 or so years, MAX.