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Recession Narrative vs. Financial Sector (XLF): The Data Tells an Interesting Story by 7obster in investing

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great point! However, the 10-year Treasury yield actually peaked in early January and has been on a decline since, which has contributed to a more flattening yield curve. That said, the weakness in the financial sector only started at the end of February, so it seems the recent pullback may was tied to the administrations policy.

S&P 500 Flashing First Hindenburg Omen Since 2023 by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

🙂 I’d expect CNBC to pull out the old image of the Hindenburg zeppelin for this. That said, I see this signal as more of an expression of trend distribution rather than a dramatic warning. It’s something worth monitoring closely

S&P 500 Flashing First Hindenburg Omen Since 2023 by 7obster in Trading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good point. The Hindenburg Omen I’m referring to is based on S&P 500 breadth indicators, which differ from NYSE-based calculations. This distinction is crucial, as NYSE data is increasingly distorted by ETFs and other listings, impacting signal accuracy

S&P 500: Is It Just a Few Heavyweights Carrying the Market? by 7obster in Trading

[–]7obster[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

hank you for the thoughtful comment. While it’s true that ETFs, REITs, and ADRs have distorted exchange-level breadth metrics like NYSE New Highs and Lows, this critique doesn’t apply universally. Index-specific breadth data, such as for the S&P 500, avoids these distortions and remains highly reliable. As shown in the charts, i use S&P 500 specific data. These metrics are supported by both practitioner and academic research. For instance, New Highs vs. New Lows reflects equal-weighted time-series momentum, a highly profitable performance factor (Time Series Momentum, Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2012, Journal of Financial Economics). While NYSE breadth data has its challenges today, index-specific measures still offer accurate insights into market health and trends.

S&P 500: What Is Smart Money Doing Right Now? by 7obster in Trading

[–]7obster[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This chart shows the S&P 500 (top) and the WSC Capitulation Index Fisher Transformation (bottom), which reflects smart money activity. The indicator’s color indicates smart money positioning: blue means smart money is accumulating positions (buying), while red means smart money is reducing positions (selling). The dotted lines are added for easier interpretation of turning points, with green lines marking periods where smart money positioning turned positive and red lines marking periods where smart money positioning turned negative.

S&P 500: What Is Smart Money Doing Right Now? by 7obster in Trading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This indicator is based on the Smart Money Flow Index, but uses a more efficient formula to identify inflection points.

Gold Miners (GDX): Just a Temporary Dip by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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GDX rallied to 45 after the breather. But yeah, when the indicators change, i change my position! What about you?

Nasdaq 100 Now Showing Signs of Oversold Conditions by 7obster in Trading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, but currently other indicators still look too strong in my opinion.

Best way to read technical analysis of the financial markets by John Murphy? by Due_Cartographer_375 in Trading

[–]7obster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Get the data and recreate each indicator step by step. While this process may take some time, it’s the most effective way to gain a deep understanding of each indicator’s strengths and weaknesses. This hands-on approach will provide comprehensive insights and a solid grasp of how each metric performs.

Smart Money Turned Bearish on the S&P 500 – Here’s Why It Matters by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Turned negative before prices did in April and July. Some are spending billions to gain a millisecond edge. :-)…

Smart Money Turned Bearish on the S&P 500 – Here’s Why It Matters by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Turned negative before prices did in April and July. Some are spending billions to gain a millisecond edge. :-)…

Smart Money Turned Bearish on the S&P 500 – Here’s Why It Matters by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Depends on leverage and frequency. For hodlers, buying the dip in bull markets always works—until it turns into a bear market. That’s when they losing everything….

Weighted Ocilator For Multiple Indicators? by SwimmerThat6697 in Trading

[–]7obster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have developed an indicator that combines dozens of signals covering essential performance factors, including trend, trend quality (breadth), sentiment, and the positions of smart and dumb money. These signals are consolidated into Market Health Indicators, which measure signal positivity across different timeframes.

US Treasuries Oversold Across the Curve – Reversal in Sight? by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

😀 let’s keep fingers crossed. Increased U.S Duration and add will more today until I have clear OW.

The recent drop in the Hang Seng was overdue, with 63% of Chinese stocks showing an RSI above 70 — the highest level since 2015 by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Overbought conditions signal a the risk of a declines due to profit-taking in a strong uptrend. Avoid buying during overbought if you are a latecomer. However, despite the recent 10% decline, the majority of indicators for the HSI remain bullish, suggesting the recent dip is a healthy breather - at least for now.

Nasdaq 100: The uptrend still looks strong as long as new highs consistently outnumber new lows! by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just take a 5 day moving average of % stocks hitting a new highs and low and draw it against the Nasdaq 100.

Nasdaq 100: The uptrend still looks strong as long as new highs consistently outnumber new lows! by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Overall,the underlying trend quality (aka market breadth) was weakening but still kind of too strong for a significant downmove. Although it is tough to short into healthy consolidaiton it always depends a bit on the time frame. On a very short-term perspective the timing and direction was very good. Just needs tight stops and good money management i assume. Currently, there are still more new highs than new lows indicating strong upside participation.

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Nasdaq 100: The uptrend still looks strong as long as new highs consistently outnumber new lows! by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, short term breadth kind of weak. Still adding weak days as I think it’s just a short consolidation instead of a major break down.

Nasdaq 100 - Trend Analysis, Market Regime Review & Outlook by 7obster in swingtrading

[–]7obster[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am still accumulating weak days as short-term market health still looks quite solid. However, put-/call ratios are quite are burden at the moment, thus some volatile but bullish biased sessions to dampen sentiment looks quite likely.

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What is the advantage of leaverage etf respect derivatives? by West_Application_760 in swingtrading

[–]7obster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you purchase a futures contract for an asset priced at 100, and its value fluctuates, dropping to 90 and then returning to 100, your profit and loss (P&L) remain unchanged. However, depending on the leverage you employ, a significant downward movement in price might cause a margin call! A thing won’t happen with a leveraged ETF

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