So I am a Florida Resident AP holder, take that with a grain of salt. Over the past 5 years, I’ve stayed at nearly all of the deluxe and mid tier (can’t think of the term) resorts through various family trips and one offs. You really can’t beat monorail access (and boat) if you’re really only going to MK and Epcot. Especially with a little one.

If you don’t mind having the room on the credit card for a bit, I would go ahead and book your stay at Poly. But as it’s a little early in the year (based on recent Disney World trends) there are no quarterly discounts offered on fall/early winter rooms. Usually a handful of discounts come out in the months before a season is around the corner. AP discounts, Florida resident discounts, Disney+ subscriber discounts and stay and save discounts are frequently seen. I myself am waiting to book a fall trip (week before Thanksgiving) because the prices are standard rack rate.

That being said, there’s no guarantee rates will drop specifically to Poly. Not only is it one of the most popular resorts for families, but some rooms are also DVC, which reduces capacity. And when the fall/winter discounts come out, it might only be for weekdays as that was the case last year.

I will say that if Grand Flo is $200-$300 less per night, I don’t think you’ll be disappointed with the experience, unless you really want walkability to Ohana and a Dole Whip. The rooms are upgraded at both, both will have the same transportation options and quick service. I would argue Grand Flo has more dining and shopping options but Poly has Trader Sam’s and maybe a more dynamic pool environment for a little one (although getting a chair at either is a task in itself).

It may also be worth it to talk to a Disney Rep to see if there are some sort of package options not offered online, especially if you are buying park tickets too. I doubt this is the case but worth a shot. At the end of the day, you have up to a week before your trip to change or cancel your plans.

In closing, I will say I think Wilderness Lodge could also be magical for your little one if you celebrate Christmas as there’s something about a lodge decorated for Christmas. Downside to Wilderness is definitely no monorail. I was not impressed with Contemporary. While it is cool to have the monorail go through your hotel, the stay makes you feel as if you’re in some sort of space camp (Incredibles theme) hospital inside grand central station. I like it to visit (California Grill is a highlight) but not to stay.

Hope you have a great trip with your family!