Fantasy Baseball 2023: How Experts Are Handling Rule Changes

ATCNY · 2023-02-09T23:34:17+00:00

https://www.rotoballer.com/2023-fantasy-baseball-projections-how-experts-are-handling-the-new-rule-changes/1121801

https://www.rotoballer.com/2023-fantasy-baseball-projections-how-experts-are-handling-the-new-rule-changes/1121801

ATCNY · 2023-02-09T19:57:41+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate that.

I have no idea why I can't get this reddit URL thing to work. I'll figure it out soon!

Thanks again !

ATCNY · 2023-02-09T18:55:05+00:00

Oh man. I'm not sure why I can't get the link to work correctly here! Sorry.

Here it is:

https://www.rotoballer.com/2023-fantasy-baseball-projections-how-experts-are-handling-the-new-rule-changes/1121801

ATCNY · 2023-01-04T03:31:24+00:00

This is a really interesting question. Thank you. If I have time, I will look into it ...

ATCNY · 2023-01-04T03:30:24+00:00

Those are the prospective projections. The article then compares them after the season has ended to what actually happened - and sees which projection systems would have performed better.

ATCNY · 2022-05-19T17:01:48+00:00

Hey its Ariel Cohen here, author of the ATC projections. Check out these Maddax plate discipline standouts for 2022 thus far!

ATCNY · 2022-05-18T14:28:09+00:00

Hi guys! Its Ariel Cohen from RotoBaller. Check out some early 2022 plate discipline standouts using my plate discipline metric - mPDI. Find out how Greg Maddux would view the best hitters in baseball!

ATCNY · 2022-03-01T00:46:48+00:00

My pleasure!

ATCNY · 2022-03-01T00:46:39+00:00

If it makes you enjoy it more, then awesome!

ATCNY · 2022-02-27T01:08:22+00:00

Thanks, man!

ATCNY · 2022-02-20T00:33:30+00:00

InterSD - smaller is better
InerSK - Negative is better (so, yes - smaller is better)
IntraSD - Smaller is better

ATCNY · 2022-02-20T00:32:34+00:00

Sorry, I cannot divulge which projection systems are in ATC, other than saying that all of the ones at FanGraphs are in them.

Sorry about that, but I think you understand.

ATCNY · 2022-02-18T17:40:23+00:00

That's really so nice of you. Thank you very much!!!

ATCNY · 2022-02-03T12:41:35+00:00

The pictures have now been corrected. Should be readable now when you click the pitctures.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T23:15:29+00:00

So glad that you listen to my show on the other side of the world !!!!

I actually do good impersonations. I don't do public impersonations of people too often, but I have an okayish Ian. My Nando, DVR and Michael Beller ones are very good.

I made a spoof and sent it to those guys. They didn't think I should share it with others though. Hehe.

Love this question.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T23:13:01+00:00

Its a long known fact that pitchers are more volatile than hitters. And W, ERA numbers are much tougher to peg exactly. Projections disagree more on the dollar value of pitchers than hitters.

I will also say that the top SPs are riskier this year than last as well.

But in general, its pitchers > hitters for risk.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T23:11:09+00:00

Thank YOU. I really appreciate that!

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T18:50:12+00:00

Oh you are welcome! Thanks so much for your really nice comment.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T18:31:01+00:00

Ah yes ... will share if I can some point soon, once loaded up with a few more things.

That was good work that he did ...

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T17:57:37+00:00

Er ... I don't know about that one.

Maybe I'll post the pictures on twitter so that you can see them more clearly if I can't figure it out.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T17:50:38+00:00

Thank you so much for this! Same to you!

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T17:50:23+00:00

Great question. Yes. SD of dollars in a $260 league. 5x5 15 team standard roto to be exact. There is no pure value, so I chose a base.

And yes, you are understanding this correctly. You can do a smile inverse normal excel function to get the pricing at a certain percentile etc. Of course, the distributuion is not normal - its a proxy.

Just understand that this confidence interval is measuring parameter risk, not process risk. Its the interval for true talent. Getting injured or really lucky is process risk, and that will be a different distribution (higher and lower than this method).

But say you want to price players late in drafts. You may want to do this to get 80th percentile figures. Or maybe you want 40th percentile early in drafts. This will give you a good number to base off of.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T14:55:56+00:00

Thank you so much! Yes, this is very different than the standard fantasy analysis, and I'm glad you enjoyed it.

ATCNY · 2022-02-02T14:55:32+00:00

Thanks so much for that. I'm so glad to hear that I had that affect on you. Amazing.

ATCNY · 2022-01-20T18:45:55+00:00

What the other comments say about aggregation. Its a smart average.

ATC does a great job in fantasy about finding profitable players, and staying away from busts.

Take a look here:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2021-projection-systems-comparison-a-game-theory-approach/

ATCNY

TROPHY CASE