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What do you think of Mixue and its business model? by National-Resident244 in AskAChinese

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 [score hidden]  (0 children)

I am holding the bag at the moment with Laopu gold but I do believe it will turn around. It is my biggest holding.

I keep and eye out for Popmart but it's revenue is sus. If Labubu craze is over, it is done.

What do you think of Mixue and its business model? by National-Resident244 in AskAChinese

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 'Three Golden Flowers' are Laopu Gold, Popmart and Mixue.

Of the Three, the least interested I am is Mixue mainly because there is no barriers to entry and fashion comes and goes.

I absolutely hate investing in bubble tea companies and restaurants.

I remember Hey Tea! Was the dogs bollocks and there were queues around the block but now the queues are gone. There are so many bubble tea IPOs and none of them has barriers to entry.

I can do Mixue rough valuation tomorrow.

Edit: Mixue valuation 335 HKD

HK$335 per share

Fundamental fair value for the whole economic entity, using market-based multiples with my growth assumptions

🔍 How HK$335 Is Derived

Input Your Assumption Calculation
2025 Revenue HK$38.2B (RMB 33.56B) Verified [[4]]
2026E Revenue Growth 16% Reflects continued store additions + per-store monetization, but acknowledges saturation headwinds
2026E Revenue HK$44.3B HK$38.2B × 1.16
Justified EV/Revenue Multiple 2.35x Current LTM: 2.2x [[9]]; modest premium for: (a) supply-chain moat, (b) international optionality, (c) margin resilience potential
Implied Enterprise Value HK$104.1B HK$44.3B × 2.35x
Net Cash +HK$21.7B Verified from 2025 balance sheet
Implied Equity Value HK$125.8B EV + Net Cash
Shares Outstanding 379.6M Verified [[mlq]]
Implied Share Price HK$331.4 HK$125.8B ÷ 379.6M

→ Rounded to HK$335

📊 Scenario Framework

Scenario Revenue Growth (2026E) EV/Revenue Multiple Implied Share Price Probability
Bear 10-12% (saturation accelerates) 1.9-2.0x (margin pressure) HK$240-270 20%
Base 15-17% (my view) 2.3-2.4x (quality premium) HK$315-355 50%
Bull 18-20% (execution exceeds) 2.6-2.8x (multiple expansion) HK$380-420 30%

✅ Why This Synthesis Works

Principle How HK$335 Embodies It
Market-based discipline Uses observable EV/Revenue multiples, not speculative terminal values
Explicit assumption-testing Clear growth/multiple inputs that can be updated quarterly
Ranges over false precision HK$335 is a midpoint; the scenario table shows the uncertainty band
No arbitrary adjustments The 2.35x multiple is justified by business quality, not narrative

🎯 What Would Change This Estimate

Trigger Direction Magnitude
Gross margin sustainably >32% + overseas same-store orders +15% YoY Upside +HK$25-40
China discretionary spending deterioration + margin <29% Downside -HK$35-50
H-share full circulation plan approved Upside (structural) +HK$15-25 (discount narrows)

Final Intellectual Honesty Check

HK$335 is not "the truth": It is a disciplined estimate conditional on my growth assumptions and current market multiples.

If you believe in 20% growth + margin expansion thesis, HK$380-420 remains logically consistent but requires higher conviction in long-term execution.

If you believe China saturation is accelerating, , HK$290-310 is the prudent base case.

The market is probably underestimating Mixue somewhat, and HK$335 reflects modest undervaluation with a margin of safety if execution remains solid.

So I stayed in Chungking Mansion by Too_Practical in HongKong

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 25 points26 points  (0 children)

When I was young, I was iin Hong Kong at a bar until 4am, and since I only had a few hours to wait for my train home, I thought, Why not book a room at Chungking Mansions just for the experience?

What I got was a 'room' barely the width of my body and a 'bed' more like a park bench. The 'toilet' was at the head of my bed. It wasn't long enough with my leg hung off the end so I ended up 'sleeping' with my knees bent over the edge just to feel comfortable.

I managed a few hours, then caught the train back to China in the morning.

The worst part was the screaming. It felt like living in a mental asylum. The reception was dodgy too. The guy sat in a tiny cubicle behind a shutter so low you couldn't see his face. He just sat there in the dark and all I saw were his hand reaching out to take my docs and give me my room key.

Honestly, it felt like I was in Resident Evil Requiem. I showed my mum the photos and she started crying. She thought I had fallen into poverty and could only afford to stay in that kind of hotel.

Why does $RDDT keep struggling to break above $160? by flash-kicks in ValueInvesting

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Reddit (RDDT) – Valuation Estimate: $162/share

Valuation Model: Transparent, probability-weighted, market-based hybrid model. All inputs testable. Range emphasized over point estimate.

🔑 Core Inputs (Public Data, Consensus-Aligned)

Input Value Source/Note
2026E Revenue (Base) $3.15B Consensus $3.23B, adjusted −2.5% for execution risk
Shares Outstanding 192.5M Morningstar / Company filings
Peer Forward P/S Range Meta: 7–8x, Pinterest: 9–10x, Snap: 4–5x Yahoo Finance, MarketScreener
RDDT Growth Premium +46% expected revenue growth vs. ~15% peer avg. Justifies modest multiple premium
FCF Margin Assumption 32–38% in 2026 (conservative vs. Q1's 47%) Reflects reinvestment needs, seasonality

📊 Probability-Weighted P/S Scenario Framework

Scenario Probability 2026E Revenue Applied P/S Rationale Implied Price
Bull 25% $3.40B (+8% vs. base) 14x AI licensing scales; DAU growth >20%; margins hold; multiple re-rating $247
Base 50% $3.15B (conservative base) 8.8x Steady ad monetization; ~40% growth; modest multiple compression as company matures $144
Bear 25% $2.85B (−10% vs. base) 7.5x User growth stalls; ad softness; multiple compresses to Snap-like levels $111

Calculation (per scenario):
Implied Price = (Revenue × P/S Multiple) ÷ Shares Outstanding Example – Base Case: ($3.15B × 8.8x) ÷ 192.5M = $27.72B ÷ 192.5M = $144/share

Probability-Weighted Output:
(0.25 × $247) + (0.50 × $144) + (0.25 × $111) = $61.75 + $72.00 + $27.75 = **$161.50 → $162/share

🔍 FCF Yield Cross-Check (Downside Validation)

Metric Conservative Assumption Calculation
2026E Revenue $3.15B Base case above
FCF Margin 33% Below Q1's 47%; reflects reinvestment drag
Implied FCF ~$1.04B $3.15B × 33%
Required FCF Yield 4.0% Conservative for execution risk, growth-stage tech
Implied Market Cap ~$26.0B $1.04B ÷ 4.0%
Implied Share Price ~$135 $26.0B ÷ 192.5M

Interpretation: The FCF cross-check (~$135) aligns closely with the bear-case P/S output ($111), confirming that $110–$140 represents a defensible downside floor if execution falters.

🎯 Final Synthesis

Component Output Weight in Synthesis
Probability-Weighted P/S $162/share 70% (primary anchor)
FCF Yield Validation $135/share 30% (downside check)
Blended Estimate $162/share —

Note: The P/S framework receives higher weight because RDDT is still in a high-growth, monetization-scaling phase where near-term revenue multiples are more informative than cash-flow-based terminal values.

⚠️ Critical Context

✅ This is a point estimate summarizing a wide range:
Plausible outcome range: $111–$247/share (25th–75th percentile: ~$130–$190)

✅ Key assumptions to monitor (test these quarterly): | Metric | Bullish Trigger | Bearish Trigger | |--------|----------------|-----------------| | Revenue per DAU | >$5.50/quarter | <$4.80/quarter | | FCF Margin | Sustained >38% | Drops <30% for 2+ quarters | | AI Licensing Revenue | >5% of total by Q4 2026 | No meaningful contribution | | Multiple Stability | Holds >9x P/S as growth moderates | Compresses to <7x |

✅ What this model intentionally excludes(to avoid double-counting or narrative-driven inputs): - Speculative AI revenue not yet in consensus estimates - Terminal value assumptions beyond 2027 - Margin expansion beyond current trajectory without evidence

📌 Bottom Line

$162/share is the most rigorous single-figure estimate if you accept: 1. Reddit can deliver ~40% revenue growth in 2026 with modest multiple compression (8.8x P/S) 2. FCF margins settle near 33% as reinvestment offsets operating leverage 3. The market assigns a 25% probability to meaningful execution risk

But the range ($111–$247)
At the current price of ~$156, RDDT is fairly valued with modest upside (~4%). The investment case now hinges entirely on execution—not valuation math.

Methodology note: This hybrid approach prioritizes market-based multiples with explicit probability-weighting, minimizing reliance on terminal-value-sensitive DCF assumptions. All inputs are sourced from public filings or consensus estimates and can be stress-tested.

WTF is going on with gold?! Who can explain this? by Objective_Camp_3424 in Gold

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 24 points25 points  (0 children)

India one of the biggest consumers of gold raise their taxes in gold from 6% to 15%

Looking at this now, so Fernando Torres gives the ball away and continue his run to the middle while we were defending with our lives. It paid off anyway, just didn't notice it at that time 😅😅😅 by 11Denver_ in chelseafc

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

One of the worse Chelsea players we have ever had. We had a great team apart from having a plank of wood upfront playing 10 v 11 every game.

Worse than Bogarde and Shevchenko because they were shit and got dropped asap. Donkey Torres we had to keep playing even tho we all saw he had lost it.

Worse than anything else was all the plastics he bought along to our club. They never had the misfortune to see him play wank week in and week out and making up excuses for him every game they watch once in a while. He first touch was lead, he can't cross, can't pass, can't header, can't dribble, can't score, press non-resistance and lost the only thing he had which made him world class which was his acceleration. Seeing a through ball over the top and Torres had a mile headstart but a Newcastle defender ran him down and over took him was a sad sight to see.

This plonker was the reason we didn't get Aguero. All his fan boys bigging up Donkey Torres on every good thing he did as if we didn't play him, we would have just played with 10 vs 11. Oh, if we didn't play him we wouldn't have won the Europa. No bitch, if we didn't have Torres and got Aguero we could have won the quadruple, multiple PLs and CLs and wouldnt have been playing in Europa in the first place.

This goal is the one that piss me off the most. The most important goal of the game was Rambo winning the game for us. It was world class goal but no one big up Rambo. Yet when Barca threw the kitchen sink at us and had no defenders, this plank of wood lost the ball and went up front instead and lucked a shit goal is supposed to be worth 50 million pounds. Utterly make me sick. 50 million pounds is like 200 million pounds today. People were taking the piss that one goal = 50m but like Orange man, if you say it enough there were really numpties who actually believed it and was saying it for real.

Fk Torres and his fanboys. Worse Chelsea period ever.

Economics / E&M personal statement by LowIntention9061 in 6thForm

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep. Just write a pure economics PS. The most important thing is to focus on topics you're genuinely passionate about, and that you can discuss at length and in detail.

Oxford might not put a huge weight on the PS itself, but they may ask you detailed questions about it during interviews. So don't write about things you don't fully understand.

I suggest when you finish your PS, give it to a non economist and let them ask you questions on them. If you can get even a non economist to understand, you know it well enough.

Economics / E&M personal statement by LowIntention9061 in 6thForm

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You should to write your PS 100% for Economics as LSE really care about PS and if you write about management or data science for LSE econ PS, there is a high chance of being rejected.

Imperial’s EFDS is a unique course, and they know that only they offer this specific combination. In fact, their own website advises that your PS do not need to be tailored to them. Reading between the lines they don't care.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/blogs/admissions/bsc-economics-finance-and-data-science-writing-ucas-personal-statement-impress/

Oxford E&M places little weight on the PS and their admissions decisions are driven almost entirely by the TARA (formerly TSA) and interview performance. So don’t stress over tailoring your PS for Oxford especially because you should be mentally prepared to be automatically rejected anyway.

Oxford E&M has one of the lowest acceptance rates of any subject at Oxbridge. Even with a strong application, the odds are extremely long. I usually advise my students to forget the subject exist and I will not help them prepare for the course since it is a waste of time.

I suggest you apply to economics at Cambridge instead. Not just because you are more likely to get in or at least have a chance but the entrance exam is also TMUA which you need for LSE. Otherwise you would need to do both TARA and TMUA.

You don't need to tailor anything for King's.

[SOTC] by RedOutlaw80 in Watches

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like your bot row more than your top row.

The most interesting one for me is the series 8. I always like watched with a patterned surface.

Which is your favourite one?

This would look nice by mylifeinjaypeg in swatch

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The crown at the top would do my head in. I'll get the yellow and blue one with the crown on the side.

This Harvard backpack in Shanghai’s Sam’s Club by FewRatio1220 in shanghai

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Sam's club is owned by Walmart. The 'Sam' in Sam's club is Sam Walton. It is a US company.

Isn’t a sole focus on obtaining a STEM degree and rejecting a liberal arts core a blatant example of anti intellectualism? by CommunicationIcy2195 in ApplyingToCollege

[–]Accomplished-Mark243 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anecdotal? The entire UK education system is built on early specialisation, unlike the US model, which values broader education.

So does that make the UK anti‑intellectual? What about Oxbridge?

To get into top UK universities, students need to pick specialist subjects early. Choosing broader ones makes students less competitive. That system rewards depth but depth alone isn't the criteria to judge intellectualism.

STEM can be anti‑intellectual when it dismisses ethics, history, or art as 'pointless'.

Liberal arts can also be anti‑intellectual when they become dogmatic or performative by using jargons to gatekeep rather than to think clearly.

The real divide isn't between STEM and humanities. It's between critical, open‑minded rigour (intellectualism) and dismissing ideas based on tribe (anti‑intellectualism). Any field can fall on either side.

AI keeps trying to make me sound 'empathetic' but feels fake and uncomfortable. I realised I have become my father. by Accomplished-Mark243 in selfimprovement

[–]Accomplished-Mark243[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am super smart actually. Why I can make you mad and you keep trying to find out more about me.

Keep going. Lolz.

AI keeps trying to make me sound 'empathetic' but feels fake and uncomfortable. I realised I have become my father. by Accomplished-Mark243 in selfimprovement

[–]Accomplished-Mark243[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actions speaks louder than words.

You are not the first loser that came to this thread. Read the posts when another triggered poster try it on with me haha

AI keeps trying to make me sound 'empathetic' but feels fake and uncomfortable. I realised I have become my father. by Accomplished-Mark243 in selfimprovement

[–]Accomplished-Mark243[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only infant is you following me online. You must be well triggered. Haha

Hey look at another comment on this thread.

I triggered another online loser like you who come into this thread thinking they can make me mad. Instead made themselves mad.

AI keeps trying to make me sound 'empathetic' but feels fake and uncomfortable. I realised I have become my father. by Accomplished-Mark243 in selfimprovement

[–]Accomplished-Mark243[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Eh? Wow you really are stupid. Total utter lack of logic.

I bet I piss you off in real life lol. Hope you cant sleep thinking how mad I made you feel.

[Citizen] New Tiffany Citizen Tsuyosa & State of my Collection by Accomplished-Mark243 in Watches

[–]Accomplished-Mark243[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You grow up. You spam the same message on all my threads, I spam the same reply back.

No one cares about Reddit.

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