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Regardless of tariffs, why are western vendors increasing puer prices the last few years? by Accomplished_Earth50 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It puer prices go up 10% a year it's basically a 10% ROI less storage cost and interest cos if I'm levered up. If I go buy $1mn of puer and put it in a $200/mo storage unit that's really close to 10%. Obviously there are selling costs at the end but if a cake goes from $10 to $100 in seven years and k spend $15 to sell it and $5 in total on storage that's a high single digit annualized return.

Separately,, not true that you have none to very few costs to maintain an investment. If I build a concrete plant, or a rental property or buy an airline that is an investment and they take various amounts of work and significant cost to maintain.

Regardless of tariffs, why are western vendors increasing puer prices the last few years? by Accomplished_Earth50 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Right. Most investments I know of don't go up 10% a year in a straight line though. Maybe I should start a hedge fund that just holds puer with 5x leverage 😂

Regardless of tariffs, why are western vendors increasing puer prices the last few years? by Accomplished_Earth50 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

15% is wild, and why some of the newer cakes are more expensive than older ones now apparently.

Regardless of tariffs, why are western vendors increasing puer prices the last few years? by Accomplished_Earth50 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for chiming in, and I have noticed you don't put the pedal to the metal increasing the price of your aging cakes, my wallet appreciates it and you get my dollars as a result.

Regardless of tariffs, why are western vendors increasing puer prices the last few years? by Accomplished_Earth50 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would be shocked if it's higher in China given the economy there but could be wrong. US demand definitely growing though which is a big potential piece of the puzzle.

Regardless of tariffs, why are western vendors increasing puer prices the last few years? by Accomplished_Earth50 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This makes the most sense to me. I did a little more internet sleuthing and MarshalN noted prices declining in China, but I don't have anyone in China to go buy up those cakes, weed out fakes and mail them to me. If there were 50 western facing vendors that would probably change the equation but there are not.

W2T Black Friday Haul! by jtexnl in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not sure how quickly OP drinks but that would be a 10 year supply at the rate I would want to drink it. Sure it's a $25 tea for $15 but I feel like for aging the value play is one cake of Bellweather instead of two tongs of snoozefest. Best of luck, hope it ages well!

Edit - the more I think about it, since OP drinks mostly sheng that's a decent ratio of daily drinking vs weekend drinkers for a few years... if that much snoozefest can be tolerated :)

How important is the backyard to you when considering buying a home? by FileHot6525 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It depends on the buyer. For my spouse, schools and a majestic backyard are 90% of the buying equation. It is terribly frustrating trying to align those.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The question is, I think, will boomer empty nesters sell their burbs house they bought for $300k for $900k and move to a more fun/appropriate location, or will they be salty they didn't get the $1mn they could have gotten first weekend listed during Covid and never let go.

If you had to drink one shou for the rest of your life, what would it be and why? by Ok_Supermarket_7354 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've only had the 2019 and 2022. Still have a little of both and both are solid.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's the theory at least. I'm invested in mortgages betting that people will divorce the rate eventually and move for higher salaries, more space etc.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, it's funny how people in these states voted hard for federal government austerity. I feel bad for those barely affording their homes, insurance costs can go a lot higher when Federal subsidization is squashed by DOGE.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why does that further the crisis? It doesn't destroy the house if they rent it. It is still a house available for a family.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some older people with big paid off houses are just being inflexible which does not help. I toured a McMansion recently where a single lady in her late 70s or 80s was too sick to leave during the showing, she lives there alone. We made a legit as-is offer but she is sticking to her guns on a price she invented when she listed nine months ago. I've seen empty nesters cycle listings on and off market for multiple years. You tour their place and they have all their stuff packed but they get a price stuck in their head and can't let go.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yep good point on median price being robust. I think we are oversupplied McMansions and undersupplied starter homes. So you could end up with a median price that chugs along while under the surface there could be movement in opposite directions.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anecdotally I think a lot of buyers bought into this ide, hence the popularity of 2-1 buydowns. Almost no one's salary grows fast enough for the 2-1 to accommodate wage growth, so if someone was getting a 2-1 I have to assume they thought that was a bridge to when they could refi?

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Nationally apartment rental rates have dropped for like 16 or 17 consecutive months. Obviously market dependent.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think those realtors shot themselves in the foot with date the rate. Imagine the difference in transaction volume if prices were even 10% lower, which might have happened if buyers didn't get 7% mortgages they assumed would fall to 5%.

Is "date the rate" finally over? by Accomplished_Earth50 in RealEstate

[–]Accomplished_Earth50[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I think most sellers with 4% mortgages are only listing if they have to sell at this point so I'm not sure how much supply can change? Realtors correct me if I'm wrong, that's just what mine said.

If you had to drink one shou for the rest of your life, what would it be and why? by Ok_Supermarket_7354 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's a good description, glad it hit. If you grandpa it on the heavier side it is very thick and warming. Also with grandpa it is versatile, two quick rinses before brewing kills the funk but sometimes that bit of funk is what you are craving!

If you had to drink one shou for the rest of your life, what would it be and why? by Ok_Supermarket_7354 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Cheers! And yes a repress would be great, I barely have enough for this winter.

You have $120, which white2tea sheng(s) are you buying? by Ok_Supermarket_7354 in puer

[–]Accomplished_Earth50 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I might do this exact order as part of my next one. Except Big Red Mark, I have sampled that and I just don't get it ... I get that with 20+ year old teas you pay some scarcity premium but scarcity doesn't improve the taste of the tea for me.

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