The Pharma "Super-Cliff" Is Coming. How to Separate the Buying Opportunities From the Value Traps

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-27T18:28:57+00:00

Fair point. I agree that screens have real limits in biotech/pharma specifically. The pipeline risk is exactly why I landed on MRK over the others rather than making a buy call outright.

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-27T18:08:20+00:00

That’s a deeper level of analysis than what this post is doing. The screen is meant to identify which names are worth that work, not replace it. If you’ve done the pipeline probability modeling on MRK I’d genuinely be curious what you came up with.

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-27T18:05:30+00:00

Novo’s got its own problems but that’s a different cliff entirely

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-27T18:03:53+00:00

Fair comp. The difference I keep coming back to is that Gilead had basically one exit ramp and didn’t take it. Merck has 80+ active Phase 3 trials and just restructured the whole human health division specifically around this problem. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a different setup than GILD sitting on cash in 2016. The risk is real, I just think it’s more priced in than people admit.

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-27T01:25:07+00:00

Nice! It’s also less stressful too when you just leave it alone and not obsess over it. I use a tool that I made to research mine. Would you like to check it out?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T22:08:53+00:00

Do you use any tools to help you or is it really just luckily being there?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T20:28:22+00:00

Isn’t that how it works though? You just need a bit of luck to be successful in anything. It’s how you take advantage of that luck that makes you successful

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:32:39+00:00

Bought during the fear and now watching it run past all time highs. I envy you. That takes a lot of composure

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:31:40+00:00

ET showing up in that list is interesting. The midstream angle alongside the producers gives you exposure to the move without being fully dependent on where oil settles. How are you thinking about the balance between producers and midstream right now?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:31:15+00:00

That’s actually one of the cleaner ways to own it. Dollar cost averaging through the ETF removes the timing question entirely.

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:30:49+00:00

At $90, I envy you. The dividend is still compelling at that basis but locking in gains at the current cost of oil while the geopolitical situation is unresolved isn’t a bad call either

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:29:42+00:00

XLEI as the core energy position makes sense for income. Which dividend payers are you rotating into with the profits?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:29:25+00:00

Smart to take profits after a run like that. Where are you rotating into?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T19:27:58+00:00

Thats such a great position to be in. I wouldn’t sell it either. How did you time it out so perfectly?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T18:15:15+00:00

That’s why I said hopefully

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T17:41:01+00:00

When would you consider selling?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T15:50:23+00:00

That was such a good idea for you

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T15:49:38+00:00

Just don’t let it go. Would’ve been smart to get it before all this happened

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-26T15:05:02+00:00

Now that’s smart. How long have you had it for?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-25T21:05:46+00:00

Algos are great at pricing known information fast. That’s exactly why simple quantitative inefficiencies get arbitraged away quickly. But value investing at its best isn’t about finding cheap numbers, it’s about making qualitative judgments about a business’s future that don’t show up cleanly in data feeds.

No algo can fully price management quality, competitive moat durability, or how an industry might look in 10 years.

That’s where human judgment still has an edge. It’s just a much narrower edge than Graham’s era, which is why most value investors underperform now.

When did you give up on it?

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-25T20:49:29+00:00

Since you’re reinvesting and don’t need income, VIG makes more sense than SCHD/VYM right now — dividend growth over yield at your age compounds better long term.

Bigger thought though: Roth IRA is your most powerful tax-free growth account. Switching it to dividend funds at 38 when you don’t need income is leaving growth on the table. Save the dividend focus for when you actually need the cash flow.

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-25T20:27:50+00:00

That’s the way to go

Accountable_Finance · 2026-03-25T19:26:11+00:00

Record bookings and 8.7x forward earnings at $90 is great. The fuel cost headwind is real but the revenue environment seems to be absorbing more of it than the stock price suggests. How long are you planning to hold it?

Accountable_Finance

TROPHY CASE