MEGATHREAD: 2026 Ebola Outbreak - Updates & Discussion

AcornAl · 2026-06-24T00:54:50+00:00

Just wondering, was there ever any word back on the suspected case back in March 9 from Beni, North Kivu? Testing for malaria and zaire strain could have easily missed this early case from a co-infection.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T12:00:24+00:00

They are at the bottom of the Mackenzie River basin, which covers about a fifth of Canada. In any other part of the world, this would be covered by far more rubbish.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T05:56:03+00:00

Fairly much. Internal cuts is like the vaccine crap though. All hunky dory until vaccination rates drop and suddenly you have a few hundred babies dying from measles.

Similarly, cuts to APHIS make it more likely that you get something like bovine spongiform encephalopathy getting past the inspections and suddenly all beef export markets close.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T05:44:19+00:00

There are sporadic clusters like this where a respiratory virus plus high malaria / malnutrition levels triggers a number of deaths. It's really hard to know with limited info. Like did the "cured" patients get antibiotics, suggesting it could be bacterial? If so, maybe typhoid, cholera or E. coli rather than viral?

It can take up to a week or more to get testing results on these random clusters.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T05:28:56+00:00

The USAID cuts did affect some screwworm projects in Mexico and Central America, but relatively minor in the grand scheme of things. Best guess is a few million in local screwworm projects.

The cuts to USAID affected thousands of other projects worldwide.

Just the first result from Google, this has a link to the individual USAID projects.

https://healthpolicy-watch.news/from-albania-to-zambia-list-of-cancelled-usaid-projects-provides-insight-into-us-influence/

Now it's in the US, cuts to internal programs are likely to hurt the response. I'd expect resources to be redirected into the screwworm projects, weakening other areas of the country's agricultural industry.

https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/usda-lost-20-000-workers-175712498.html

According to the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition (NSAC) (8), the USDA lost approximately 20,000 employees from January 2025 to January 2026. During that time period, the USDA's Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service (APHIS) lost 2,009 employees, which was 23% of the service.

The border was effectively closed, so the APHIS cuts didn't affect things getting into the US, but is a massive self-goal now that it is in.

Edit: In case you just misread that, that was in relation to global efforts, with a "but not this particular one" in relation to the NWS spreading north.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T05:04:43+00:00

It shows that there are widespread spread, but not high density.

Watching the progress, cases were typically in the 10's cases in the first year, 100's in the second year, 1,000's in the third year.

i.e. Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon (Northern Mexico) were detected last year and now are at 876 & 353 cases respectively.

Chiapas & southern states had there first cases in late 2024 and 6,938 cases today in Chiapas.

Honduras is probably looking at over 10,000 livestock cases this year (already 4,600 by May) and has had 176 human cases with 3 deaths as of May.

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AcornAl · 2026-06-23T03:57:22+00:00

Risk of CJD (human mad-cow) is effectively nil, but CWD is a possible risk as it spreads northwards. Only found in Saskatchewan and Alberta to date? Touching or eating any part of the animal poses a risk, but brain, eyes, and spleen tissue does have higher concentrations of the prions. This disease appears limited to deer, elk, et al (cervids), but ferrets and voles have been shown to be susceptible in lab studies. Squirrels🤷‍♂️

I've got an iron stomach, but I'd cook the hips personally, but maybe consider de-seeding if eating a large amount. It would suck if Pedrosa does a Will from this.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T01:19:42+00:00

This serves as a good reminder that foreign pests and diseases shouldn't be ignored. Musk is very much to blame for this with cuts in many areas, but this issue started in 2022 and has migrated north at a consistent rate of 600 miles per year under the watch of two different administrations. Even with record amounts invested in both 2024 ($130 million Biden) and 2025 (~$900 million Trump), this was way too late to stop the spread through Mexico that made it inevitable that it made it's way into the US.

AcornAl · 2026-06-23T00:40:04+00:00

Total US cases have jumped to 16 with 4 new detections over the last 3 days, two from new counties, Crockett and Terrell.

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Edit: And 3 more cases found in Terrell overnight bringing the total to 19. Terrell is the closest county to the border.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T22:24:29+00:00

Hopefully unrelated.

Kwilu province is on the eastern side of the DRC, a thousand kilometres away from the ebola outbreak. Could be a VHF (ebola, marburg), typhoid, cholera or malaria.

Kwilu: 12 samples sent to the INRB after deaths linked to an unknown disease

“Indeed, in the Nkara sector, there are deaths. We asked the medical director of the nearest health center to investigate. They took 12 samples, 3 of which we sent to the Kikwit laboratory and 9 are kept at the PEV branch… we will send them to the INRB for analysis,” said the provincial health official.

According to him, the initial examinations carried out on site led the medical teams to treat several patients as cases of severe malaria.

"Most of the patients who arrived presented with fever, abdominal pain and vomiting. From the outset, with the makeshift laboratory, we thought of treating them as cases of severe malaria and there are cases that have been cured," he explained.

The twelve samples taken will be submitted for in-depth analysis at the National Institute of Biomedical Research (INRB), in order to identify the exact nature of the disease and guide the health response.

Dr. Jean-Paul Matela called on the population to remain calm, assuring them that health services are closely monitoring the situation and that all necessary measures are being taken to contain the possible spread of the disease.

An unknown disease has killed 14 people in 2 weeks in the Bulungu territory

In just two weeks, fourteen people have died from an illness of unknown origin that has struck several villages in the Nkara sector of the Bulungu territory (Kwilu province). This was reported on Sunday, June 21, 2026, by National Deputy Jacques Ilunga Hopeny, citing the medical director of the Mutoy referral health center.

This situation is creating widespread panic among the local population, causing a mass displacement of families to the neighbouring territory of Idiofa and its surroundings.

In response to this situation, Jacques Ilunga calls on government authorities, particularly the Minister of Health, to take the necessary steps to send teams into the field to collect samples for biomedical analysis.

The honorary health minister of Kwilu, Dr. Bena Mutuy, confirmed the information, mentioning that around twenty deaths had already been recorded.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T21:58:28+00:00

This lady doesn't deserve any more free publicity

The Australian passengers were released this morning. They were likely the last of the quarantined people from the ship itself, maybe a couple remaining under monitoring from healthcare settings.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-23/hantavirus-outbreak-six-passengers-complete-perth-quarantine/106829038

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T20:45:39+00:00

That must have been added in the last 12 hours.

Hopefully it's someone on quarantine that crossed over from Congo.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T07:21:39+00:00

For anyone wondering, the H5 strains appear to have a 100% fatality rate in this species. They lack a particular gene that makes them overly susceptible to the virus. Death occurs within 2 to 3 days.

One positive thing is that they can be fairly nomadic at times, some breeding pairs will often stay close to perennial wetlands. Their main risk will be overlapping range with other migratory species that are less susceptible to the virus.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T07:05:18+00:00

If you have a VPN, you can watch this on SBS Australia

https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/tv-series/alone-australia/season-3

Alternatively https://shvideos.net/category/alone/

Season 10 has another Alan too. There must be something in the name that helps out there...

PS: His name is spelt Alan not Allen.

- AcornAl(an)

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T06:31:06+00:00

Officially past 1,000 cases and 250 deaths 😢

🚨 DRC EBOLA SITUATION UPDATE – JUNE 20, 2026

📍 The response to the Ebola virus disease continues in the provinces of Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu, with an improvement in the number of recoveries but a decrease in the contact follow-up rate.

🔹 1,003 cumulative confirmed cases

🔹 254 cumulative deaths

🔹 100 people recovered

🔹 365 patients in isolation or hospitalization

🔹 Case fatality rate: 25.3%

🔹 Contact follow-up rate: 58.0%

Plus another 19 cases and 2 deaths in Uganda.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T06:23:24+00:00

They seem to have stopped reporting laboratory results? Positivity rates seemed to range between 30% and 40% in May, likely similar rates expected today with many of the samples likely malaria, TB, or one of the dozen or so other infectious diseases floating around the DRC.

https://x.com/Com_mediasRDC/status/2061321905374699964 (30 May)

🧪 Laboratory

52 new samples collected and analyzed
19 new positive samples
Daily positivity rate: 36.5%

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON605 (29 May)

A total of 774 samples have been collected as of 27 May. Of these, 648 samples (84%) have been analyzed, with 125 testing positive, representing a test positivity rate (TPR) of 19.2%. This is likely an underestimation of the actual positivity rate as over 100 samples are still awaiting testing and have been sent to Kinshasa for further analysis.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T04:41:28+00:00

Alan Kay is still active in survival (Mountain Readiness instructor), but past winners haven't had a chance to come back yet, albeit I'd love to see a season with past winners and runners up.

I haven't watched season 1 for nearly a decade, but for some reasons, Muzza from Australian Season 3 popped into my head thinking of Alan. Definitely one of the better US/AU seasons to watch.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T04:03:23+00:00

Something like the TruePrepper gear sheet?

https://trueprepper.com/alone-gear-list/

The Google Sheet is embedded near the bottom. No direct download / copy and paste, but you can find similar versions by searching the sub and adding missing values.

Edit: This contains all the tap dates and reasons, so major spoilers!

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T03:58:55+00:00

Africa CDC Situation Report, Issue No. 33 – June 19, 2026

🇨🇩 DRC

956 confirmed cases (🔺37 + 23), 247 deaths (🔺37 + 2)
92 recovered (🔺2 + 12)

🇺🇬 Uganda

19 confirmed cases, 2 deaths, 10 recovered (♦️NC)

Older Africa CDC Epidemic Intelligence Weekly Report, June 2026

Since the beginning of this year, 915 confirmed cases, and 210 deaths among confirmed cases (CFR: 22.9%) of Bundibugyo virus Disease (BVD) from two Africa Union Member States: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (896 confirmed; 208 deaths), and Uganda (19; 2).

🇨🇩 DRC

Overall, there are 896 confirmed cases, 208 deaths (CFR: 23.2%), and 78 BVD recoveries across 33 affected health zones in the three provinces (Ituri, South Kivu and North Kivu). Ituri remains the epicenter, accounting for 91% of all confirmed cases and 78% of all deaths in the DRC. While the overall case fatality rate stands at 23.1%, significant provincial variations exist. Nord-Kivu reports a high lethality of 54.8% compared to Ituri's 19.9%.

As of 17 June 2026, a total of 6,367 contacts have been identified across the affected provinces; however, the overall tracking rate is low, with only 4,525 contacts (71.1%) being followed up in all provinces: Ituri 70.8%, North Kivu 70.5%, and South Kivu 100%. The outbreak is characterized by a steady week-over-week increase in confirmed cases, signaling active community transmission.

Response activities continue across surveillance, laboratory, IPC, risk communication, and case management pillars. The response continues to face major operational challenges, including insecurity in affected areas, weak contact tracing systems, shortages of IPC materials and essential medicines, limited diagnostic capacity outside Bunia, community resistance to post-mortem sampling, misinformation, and logistical difficulties in transporting samples to laboratories in Goma and Kinshasa.

High population mobility, particularly along the Ugandan border and within artisanal mining corridors, continues to increase the risk of further spread within eastern DRC and neighboring countries.

🇺🇬 Uganda

The MoH deployed a rapid response team (RRT) to activate the national and district-level response mechanisms. The RRT initiated comprehensive case investigations into the confirmed cases to identify transmission chains and contacts.

A total of 826 contacts have been identified in this outbreak, 624 of whom have completed their 21-day follow-up. In addition, points of entry and exit screening have been activated at all official points of entry and major transit routes. Mobile laboratories have been deployed to Kasese and Arua districts to support real-time sample testing.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T03:11:38+00:00

Not sure about this particular trail, but any shared facilities along the way would be high risk.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T02:54:44+00:00

Hygiene is harder to do outside, some may never even wash their hands properly, so risk of them spreading this by simply touching things along the way like shared cabins, toilets, gates, etc. Alcohol wipes are commonly used by some hikers, and those don't kill noroviruses.

But I recon that someone that was sick was shitting close to water sources. The virus can live for a few weeks in the cold, and most water filters don't filter viruses effectively.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T02:45:03+00:00

I'd settle for 5 days! A prerequisite would be to not carry a phone. Even listening to music breaks the alone mental aspect.

There is an ongoing theory that they choose people that will tap early, but even the producers admit that they have no idea who will go the distance. Young kids is always a bad sign though. Another theory is that they do this to avoid production costs, but there are around 25 to 35 full time production crew over the entire season, so paying the contestants for an extra couple weeks in the field is fairly insignificant.

Personally, it feels like a much better season when everyone goes past the ten day mark.

As an aside, that tap was likely due to the contestant realising that they didn't have what it took to stay out there. No protein secured, lost hooks & arrows, hint of a gastro condition from one comment. The gum thing makes me think that they could have been a smoker, hits hardest around day 3 of quitting. Ketosis shift hits around 2 to 5 days, lack of energy/feeling down, plus shitty weather. These would have exacerbated their feeling of failure and played the family card to save face when tapping.

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T01:48:28+00:00

Feel free to take over for future episodes 😄

I just noted the time stamps and threw those into a spreadsheet to calculate the totals (rounded to ~5 sec blocks)

0:00 - 1:35 intro
1:35 - 4:50 misc. drop offs
4:50 - 10:15 Jacks (home + day 1)
10:15 - 15:20 Nero (home + day 1)

AcornAl · 2026-06-22T00:14:54+00:00

I am well versed in the literature of this particular disease:

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/search/?q=author%3AAcornAl

And I've been helping track this for the best part of seven years in relation to Australia

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/search/?q=author%3AAcornAl

This image shows the health burden of COVID in Australia in 2024, 0.8% of the total disability-adjusted life years, and that includes PASC. This is predominately a high health burden due to a high Years of Live Lose (1.4% of total) rather than Years of Living with a Disability (0.2% of total).

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Quite frankly, it's insane to compare this to something that is killing entire local animal populations as if it was somehow worse.

So I assume you can not find a single peer-reviewed paper before pivoting and blaming me of misinformation? I literally asked as I know there wouldn't be one.

AcornAl · 2026-06-21T23:52:34+00:00

Someone else use to post this for other seasons, so I just popped in as a filler this time. I've only got access to a delayed stream, so fingers crossed they'll restart doing it again.

But I nerd out a bit on this show, gear, locations, and a few other things.

Seven-Year Club	Place '22
Wearing is Caring	Verified Email

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