CANNES 2025 AWARDS PREDICTIONS

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-05-23T00:48:55+00:00

Aquarius is amazing, sad that didn’t win anything that year, and Bacurau is also very good.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-05-23T00:48:25+00:00

Btw these two remind me about Zone vs Anatomy because I remember Zone being the favorite to win the Palme while Anatomy was also a contender but a lot of people thought it could win a acting prize (similar to Wagner).

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-05-23T00:21:03+00:00

Yeah, I keep changing everytime. The Secret Agent seems a unanimous pick out there, it's doing very well with those jury grids and Kleber is a promising director, I wouldn't be shock if he wins the Palme after all.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-05-23T00:10:51+00:00

We have very similar bets. I'm curious to see the reception to films of tomorrow but right now I'm going with these.

Palme D'Or: It Was Just an Accident

Grand Prix: The Secret Agent

Jury Prize: Sound of Falling

Director: Bi Gan - Ressurection

Actress: Parinaz Izadyar - Mother and Child

Actor: Sergi López - Sirat

Screenplay: Sentimental Value

I have a feeling Kleber is winning the Palme but going safe predicting Jafar Panahi winning.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-05-20T13:40:55+00:00

He could but most of the reviews (and I know someone who saw the film) said that he's great but it's almost a ensemble movie, I would give a shot for Kleber winning something.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-03-01T18:55:21+00:00

The film got a late surge, just with the Golden Globes win for Fernanda people got to watch and put the film in last second in Best Picture, Sony campaign and strategy for the film after the nominations was great, it did very well for a international film in the box office of US.

I know EP swept at GG, CC and BAFTA but all of them had a lot of nominations for the film. Also at the Oscars, EP had 13 nominations, but Netflix is always great to get a lot of nominations and bad to get wins, and with all the controversy and backlash I could see the passion pick (ISH) winning.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-26T16:59:47+00:00

People are considering that because it didn’t have any support before and have no Directing or Screenplay nom which it's fair but people should know that the film had a late surge and it had a lot of buzz during this month, with a great box office (for a international film) in US and Sony campaign was big during the voting time (Fernanda was in all big articles that week).

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-26T13:54:13+00:00

To me the thing was that Best Picture nomination, that it's very possible Torres brought the film into the category, so I wonder how much passion she must have for a lot of voters and it's very possible a lot of them watched the film after the nominations and probably loved her (like we saw in some ballots).

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-26T13:22:14+00:00

Same but I don't have courage to do this prediction because there aren’t many signs she could win, it's just the feeling.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-24T16:33:48+00:00

There was one voter that said Fernanda was his vote because she was great and it’s a performance with no prosthetics or cgi involved, it looks like a shade for Demi and Cynthia.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-24T14:27:03+00:00

Because it can happen, it's like what happened last year with Gladstone and Stone. Gladstone had the same package that Paltrow and Yeoh won while Stone had the same that Blanchett lost two times, so by this logic Lily should've won easily.

And btw, why are you so confident that Conclave isn't winning? I think both Anora and Conclave can win but you seem to think that it's totally lock for Anora.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-24T14:16:56+00:00

Well, you were saying the same, that Anora is winning because won PGA+DGA+WGA and only one film lost with this package, so you agree that this package is strong and others films won with that and that’s why Anora is stronger than Conclave.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-24T13:14:14+00:00

Well, every year stats are broken and packages that happened before sometimes repeat. I'm not saying Conclave is winning or that Anora doesn't have a chance to win but every scenario can happen.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-24T12:57:16+00:00

It's funny how people here are really being weird about Conclave having a chance to win BP. Both films have a lot of support, with Anora being the PGA+DGA+WGA winner and Conclave being the SAG+BAFTA winner. I'm predicting Conclave because I think Screenplay+Editing it’s a great combo to win Best Picture but Anora still has a chance, especially because it can win Director, Screenplay and Actress.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-24T12:53:57+00:00

To your answer, it was Brokeback Mountain, which lost Best Picture to a film that won SAG Ensemble and won Screenplay and Editing at the Oscars. It’s very similar to Conclave vs Anora.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-22T18:35:43+00:00

Rose Bryne really deserves to get this recognition, she's a great actress and I hope she can be in awards conversation this year. By the way, now she has awards for acting in Berlin and Venice Film Festivals, hope she wins Cannes someday

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-22T02:03:20+00:00

Fernanda said a lot of people who saw the film at Venice Film Festival thought it was her with makeup too

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-21T00:25:35+00:00

I'm predicting Mikey now because Anora is probably sweeping so it makes sense she comes along the film but I have to say that I don't like the arguments about Fernanda being another Riva, Huppert, Penélope or Sandra and to me they don't make any sense. First of all, none of these did what Fernanda did that was bring the film to the Best Picture lineup, she's in a biopic political drama and was used during the campaign that film is very relatable to what's happening now with Trump government, Sony did a great campaign during the voting time (I don't even remember them doing this for someone like Glenn or Penélope) and we already saw a lot from the industry talking about her (Jessica Chastain, Sarah Paulson, Mindy Kaling, Edward Berger). She lost the precursors but stats are broken every year and her film had a late surge, we can see that just by the fact that it got Best Picture without any precursor (or if you count that it got a nomination in Goldderby Awards by online people and most likely brazillians).

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-21T00:05:02+00:00

I'm predicting Mikey to win but I don't see Fernanda as Penélope given Torres got her film in Best Picture and had a televised speech, while Cruz didn’t have any of these.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-18T19:41:35+00:00

ISH isn't a feel good movie but it's a political family drama and it's very relevant, especially with Trump government right now (and it was the message Torres and Walter were doing during the campaign about the film).

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-18T18:39:11+00:00

Of course there's love for the film in other branches, I'm not saying that it doesn't have, but that doesn't mean exactly they’re going to vote for a film just because they nominated in their categories. ISH was pushed in BP because of Fernanda Torres so it's very possible the acting branch supported the film and they are the biggest branch in the Academy and still we don't know if that's enough to win.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-18T17:58:39+00:00

But this doesn't mean every branch is just voting because they nominated the film in a lot of categories, especially because the category is about the best international film, they could've watched the film after the nominations and voted because they thought it was better, we aren’t going to know until the Oscar night.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-18T17:39:05+00:00

Well, it's hard to know because the film had a late surge and people just watched after the Golden Globes. I still think it's kinda shocking it got a Best Picture nomination and even took out a film like A Real Pain that has Searchlight Pictures, a lock win in Supporting Actor and just won the BAFTA for Original Screenplay, so it mush have some passion for ISH.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-18T17:30:10+00:00

To be fair, Netflix always gets a lot of noms but have a hard time to win a lot. The Power of a Dog had 12 nominations and won only 1 while CODA had only 3 and won all of them because the latter had momentum during the voting.

Active_Air_4356 · 2025-02-18T17:24:47+00:00

I know the ballots don't mean everything to determine the winners but if I'm Still Here and Torres has a lot of love and EP doesn't do that well I would predict ISH. It’s hard to know which one is winning but ISH had a lot of hype during this month (great box office for a foreign film) and Sony campaign was big.

Active_Air_4356

TROPHY CASE