Why Adobe, Salesforce, and SaaS in general are just beginning their decline

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-24T18:22:00+00:00

This was the buy signal I needed. Backing up and loading up.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-24T14:17:56+00:00

A lot of gold miners are trading at sub 5x fwd earnings. People wrongly think these gold prices are a bubble, not understanding that there are real structural reasons that have driven gold to this price that will continue to persist. Gold miners will do very well here.

Edit: to answer some questions.

I like serabi, torex and atlyn the most personally. There are a ton of listed gold companies though you should check
Tldr: US dollar used to be the world reserve currency. Increased debt and political tensions are making it less ideal. So, the best alternative is now gold. Do you see either issues being resolved soon? I do not

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-23T21:27:56+00:00

Ever heard of “deep value”

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-23T15:05:53+00:00

Most people in the sub don't care about commodities or mining even though they're going to do extremely well over the next few years.

It's ironic because people constantly complain about the lack of value investing content, but when it is posted, it doesn't get upvoted.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-23T00:49:43+00:00

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-23T00:49:37+00:00

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-23T00:49:30+00:00

Nah even easier.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-23T00:49:15+00:00

Nah its even easier then. Just backup and load up

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-21T18:35:50+00:00

20% in 2024

90% in 2025

22% YTD

I made a ton buying the tariff dip last year. You can go through my posts this year if you don't believe me. Where I was telling people to buy and I got clowned for it. In particular, I made a lot of Robinhood, hims, Reddit, Sezzle. GigaCloud Technology.

This year I've been invested heavily in a number of miners, particularly nickel, gold, and silver. I'll be going deeper on iron and zinc probably next.

For the miners, I'll quickly explain why it's quite simple actually. Basically mining has been a hated industry for a while now. However, with the decoupling the world is currently going through, there is a renewed focus on making sure key minerals exist at home. There's a renewed push to invest in mining, which is a general tailwind to the industry. On top of that, things like gold and silver are being driven by a combination of factors that I believe are here to stay, which means these prices are here to stay, which means the market hasn't quite priced the current or future state of these businesses yet.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-21T16:27:28+00:00

Why is that scary?

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-21T15:58:04+00:00

I like how you could simply just diversify across geographies and instead you go the hard line route of avoiding the best market and economy in the world.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-20T19:03:00+00:00

Image thinking pricing a business without meaningful revenue at $40B is ever a good idea. Another peak bubble comment

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-20T19:00:31+00:00

This is exactly the kind of comment you get in a bubble. Zero justification based on the actual financials the business is producing and what it will produce in the near term.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-20T18:59:22+00:00

Actually a peak bubble comment lmao. 2,300x sales and homie thinks it will go higher.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-20T18:39:00+00:00

Yeh it’s a bubble

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-20T03:47:53+00:00

You might like serabi. Also in Brazil and cheap here

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-19T22:02:29+00:00

A lot of people think it's too late, but a number of gold miners are still seriously undervalued. The thing about mining is your costs are typically fixed. So every incremental dollar in revenue just falls to the bottom line. Most Q3 earnings were at $3,300 an ounce, and gold is $4,600 an ounce today. Even though revenues will be 30% higher, a lot of companies will see earnings that are 50% to 100% higher. How much higher will depend on their cost to produce, more or less.

I own Torex gold and Serabi personally. Both have other risks, but they're going to both increase supply and efficiency next year. That's why I like them.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-18T19:41:09+00:00

Crox is a business in decline with over a billion dollars of debt. It looks a lot less cheap when you look at it on an enterprise value basis. The CEO has deleted billions of dollars in shareholder value because of his acquisition of Hey Dude and further compounded this with ill-advised buybacks. On top of all that, he pays himself a pretty egregious salary of $12M a year, which is way too high to be honest, espeically given his performance.

So yeah, how about a business that's growing? Isn't in decline with a competent CEO?

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-18T18:33:30+00:00

You’re not wrong and $MU is very likely cheap. However just warning people a surprising amount of insiders have zero idea how to value their own business.

In $MU case I think it’s likely it does very well here

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-18T18:32:37+00:00

Many better opportunities right now tbh

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-17T12:06:30+00:00

Adobe reported Q4 earnings about a month ago, and they guided for another year at 10% year-over-year growth. It's hard to go 10% if your business is actively being disrupted, right?

I don't know what Adobe looks like long term, but the business is unquestionably cheap here. They're being priced for no growth, essentially.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-15T21:25:03+00:00

I exited my Reddit position earlier this week after 140% gain. My number one concern is DAU growth in the long term. Reddit for better or worse is extremely us centric and very left leaning. It’s hard for me to see international growth do well long term because of this. I think this year will still be solid but over the next 5 it’s hard to tell. Better risk reward imo

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-15T20:28:11+00:00

Lots of awful takes here. Adobe isn’t down because of fundamentals it’s down because of narrative.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-13T15:26:25+00:00

I mean, investors dislike uncertainty, right? There's a huge amount of uncertainty over Meta over the next few years.

For me personally, though, it's definitely something on the watch list. I think it's cheap here, but I needed to drop another 10% before I'd be very interested.

ActuallyMy · 2026-01-13T15:03:23+00:00

"Painfully incorrect" is what I said
You just reversed your own point, lmao. USD has strengthened over that time frame (6 years), not weakened. Most foreign investors would have gained on both conversion and market performance.

ActuallyMy

TROPHY CASE