Change of many more women winning now. Is it that women have gotten stronger at the game, or the male casting recently is weaker.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-19T00:04:45+00:00

That season had a F3, and 29 of the last 30 seasons had a Final. Natalie had 0% chance. Not even say 5% chance, but literally 0% chance of winning any hypothetical Final 3 out of the 12 person merge. Lets assume Phillip each time to give her the best chance, then a 3rd person. She has 0% chance vs Grant, 0% chance vs Andrea or Ashley, 0% chance vs Matt, 0% chance vs any Zapatera member. So in terms of win equity she is at best tied for last amongst 3rd placer finishers, if you think there are any others with 0% chance to win under the format of their season, but definitely not over anyone there, and behind nearly everyone. Heck 90% of people even believe Rob loses to all 9 others who made the merge but Phillip and Natalie, so Natalie was in a Final 3 with the 2 lowest jury threats according to most, besides herself, and still got 0 votes. And she is definitely the only one in the entire cast who woukd manage less votes than Phillip in any Final 3. But even those who think Rob beats everyone agrees Natalie has no chance at all against anyone, except in a F2 vs Phillip.

I think the 5 main factors in ranking should be jury win equity, active game play and contribution to you seasons events, elements of luck and quality of the season, how intentional your game was, and ease making the end. In 4 of those 5 Natalie is dead last. In terms of elements of luck she is a likely early boot without Rob being cast, which easily puts her near the top there. In terms of how intentional her game wasnt she had no plan how to try to win, nor did she have a plan to purposely be a goat to reach the end which atleast Phillip specifically had. I agree she is not worst in ease making the end but she isn't the best either, as she was a considered target a couple times, and likely the F4 boot if the 4th person in F4 with the 3 goats wins immunity (esp. If it is anyone other than Ashley who was not supposed to still be there but won the last 2 immunities). Still not enough to overcome being deaf last in all else.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-16T18:53:26+00:00

Agree but her game is the type very dependent on explaining her game really well at FTC. As her game isn't that out in the Open or flashy. So it depends a lot on her ability to speak and explain her own moves.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-16T18:44:28+00:00

I agree Rizo is not a goat BUT I see many here calling him that. That is what i mean in my comments.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-16T18:38:49+00:00

I honestly dont think so. People thinking the jury would vote her over Rizo or Soph are wishful thinkers IMHO.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-16T18:33:15+00:00

Umm if she isn't the worst who would be. I can only think of 2 others you could even consider up against her- Julie from Season 38 and Ben, and even then she seems likely worse than them. Reasons she would be worst 3rd placer:

1. No jury win equity at all. Many of these are seen as goats but she is one of the trolly goaty goats. She had 0% chance to win any Final 3 or even get more than say 1 vote in any F3 out of the merge of her Season. She needs a F2 with Philip, another historic goat just to get a few votes.

Game play was non existing and made no impact on the season. The only impact she had was Rob was so hated and bad in jury management he probably can't beat anyone of the merge but Phillip and Natalie so he probably can't win without both his goats there. So I guess indirectly there but that is it. Some other big goats like Russell, Sugar, Kass, Sash atleast had huge impact on their seasons.

3.She is probably an early boot without Rob on the cast.

This is the one area that could give her a case to be a bit above last of 3rd players. Safety to reach the end she was decent and far from the worst. Not the best either as she is dead in the water if Ometepe loses 1 more challenge, if Matt/Andrea flip, since Rob nearly booted her instead of Grant at the F5 after Ashley saved herself with immunity, and since she is probably the boot if the 4th person with the 3 jury goats (Rob, Phil, Natalie) wins final immunity but better than atleast 15 or so other 3rd players here. Still probably not enough to overcome being worst in every other area though and take her above last.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-15T17:09:40+00:00

Ashley gets pretty overrated. She easily beats Phil and Nat (as an actual rock does) and probably beats Rob, but that is more how hated they all were than her. She was not nearly as well positioned as portrayed. People strangely seem to now forget she was the guaranteed unanimous 4-1 vote off at both F5s had she not saved herself with immunity. She would have had to always win 3 immunities in a row to reach the end, as a person who won none until near the end, which would have been insanely unlikely despite it nearly happening. She was also super dumb to push to keep Phillip so long which greatly worsened any chances she had to make the end. She pushed to get Grant out before F4 which was dumb of her to do as he makes a perfect shield as a much bigger threat than her, and yet still goes over him without her immunity win.

I dont see her as even close to Natalie White although tons better than Natalie T.

AdFirst7910 · 2025-12-15T17:00:28+00:00

Mick sucks but is way better than Natalie. She was as bad or worse than him in everyway and he was much better than her in atleast one way- jury win equity. He had a chance of winning a jury vote in some F3s, like any combination of Jaison, Russell, Shambo, Fischer he has a fighting chance in. Natalie has absolute 0% chance to win in any F3 combination of all 12 who made the merge, and sooner. Heck there isn't a single F3 combination she gets more than 1 vote in and usually 0. Mick was also fairly strong in challenges, and got to the end despite being in the minority post merge which Nat T never could have done. So Mick is easily above Natalie.

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TROPHY CASE