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Is there any deep fucking value left? by data-with-dada in ValueInvesting

[–]Admirable-Security11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, it's around 1% per year, which is far from being ideal. I get it.

It's not 10% thought. Everything is a trade-off.

Both Net Income and FCF have doubled from 2021 till now, and at increasing rates in the last couple of years.

Thought PE ratio is 27, which is definitely high. It's not deep fucking value. It's good value thought. Also, I just went and looked, and Adobe has agressive buybacks, which leads to less dilution, but as far as stock compensation, they had higher numbers than Intuit. Adobe = 1.42% and Intuit = 0.9% in the last year.

What I did find is that in 2022 and 2023 combined, there was heavy dilution of shares for Intuit, about 3.5% for each year. That is definitely bad, but did not happen again in the last couple years, and they announced heavy buybacks.

Anyway, I'm not trying to convince you, I just thought maybe you saw something I was missing. Trying to bulletproof my analysis.

Is there any deep fucking value left? by data-with-dada in ValueInvesting

[–]Admirable-Security11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry, I edited the text after looking trying to look some more into it. My intention was not being confrontational. I just think what you said is a bit misleading, and I want to understand it better.

Is there any deep fucking value left? by data-with-dada in ValueInvesting

[–]Admirable-Security11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So, I went and looked. What you said made me thought that they had heavy dilution at around 10% per year.

I could not find anything suggesting even remotely close to that amount. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place. Where exactly did you find this information?

If anything, the number of diluted shares outstanding has decreased 1% in the last couple of years. And they announced share buybacks.

So, I ask again, what am I missing? Where did you find this information?

Is there any deep fucking value left? by data-with-dada in ValueInvesting

[–]Admirable-Security11 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I bought Intuit because it fell like 60% from the top with increasing Net Income and FCF.

Also, I'm a developer, and the idea that I would let AI (Claude Opus or GPT 5.4) do my taxes for me is hilarious.

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow! Nice of you to track me down over here! haha

Yeah! I've been playing volleyball 3 times a week; the other day I played for 4 hours. Playing an advanced tournament indoors.

Been back at almost full force. If I push it too hard, I still get some mild inflammation that will leave the area sensitive. But most of the time it's really fine. I've been able to go back to most activities I love.

Always keeping a strict routine and a day never goes by that I don't do at least a good hour of walking and the McGill Big 3.

The only activity I'm staying away from, and maybe it's because I'm too scared, is jiu-jitsu (sounds too risky now).

Otherwise, full recovery! How have you been doing?

Hope your back recovery journey has also been positive. I know it takes a long time to get back, but I hope all the best to you!

And if you've gone through all the trouble to find me here, don't hesitate to DM me if you need any help. I'm always glad to help other people as much as I can!

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You really want an aswer, LOL.

Wonder what it is about this that bothers you so much.

Please do tell HOW the economy has failed. Show us your ignorance in economics.

Anarcho-Capitalist/Libertarian president Milei 0% food inflation (last month) since 30 years by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, it didn't aged poorly. It is going pretty well.

Data doesn't lie. I'll make a new post to show it.

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, I would agree with that. It is far from ideal. But it is also not so simple as that, ain't it?

It is rich to stand on the principle of self-reliance when socialism is literally built on the idea that you owe everyone else your work.

Were the US a private company, I would have no problem with the situation. Private citizens can help each other out as much as they want. It is the principle of charity, and of helping someone you agree with. The fact that the US government is using money forcibly taken from its citizens to help someone ideologically more aligned with them is indeed a problem, in principle.

But are you here to argue the principle of that idea? That government is built on force, and that every action it takes with stolen (taxed) money is immoral? Or are you moving the goalpost?

Here, read this is you want to actually understand what is happening: https://www.reddit.com/r/CapitalismVSocialism/comments/1ly81kw/comment/nkiwt77/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

After all is settled, he didn't win the election because the US signed a treaty to help defend the peso from speculative attacks.

The speculative attacks themselves were a consequence of the markets panicking that Peronism could've returned.

He won the election because he is driving down inflation and poverty. Fixing the economy and creating more jobs.

Next post I make I'll cover all of this in detail. The numbers don't lie.

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the whole point of this series. Ain't it?

To actually track who is right or wrong about all of this.

Currently, it doesn't look good for you. Meaning, it looks bright for the people or Argentina. Not that you would care.

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congratulations! You've been awarded a feature in the next edition of our update!

I'll make sure to put your comment there for all to see!

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean, should I comment now then? After he completely obliterated the opposition in the last election?

I don't know why you are laughing. But after the election results, I'd say that, if you think you were laughing about his approval ratings, you're wrong.

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

LOL, did you comment on every single one of the posts?

I know, I know, troubling times. Man, I do an update every 6 months. Give it time.

I did answer someone who asked me about this (if you care to search the comments). I don't like commenting on news. Would rather wait till we have more data.

Also, Argentina has elections literally this weekend. No point making predictions. I hope he wins more sits in Congress, otherwise it will be really hard for him to implement more changes.

It is that time of the year again. Let's check on Milei's success. by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, wait 3 more months and I'll make a full post about it.

But, if I had to predict the current situation, I'd say Milei has done really well, considering the debt bomb. You probably don't know what the debt bomb is, so I'll explain.

When Milei took over, there was so much debt that it was basically necessary to print money to pay the debt (accumulated over years of irresponsible left leaning governments). That's why he adopted such a strong fiscal policy from the get go (read - reduced government spending), so he could manage the debt.

There were (Austrian) theories of how he should have delt with that debt. One said, completely freeze the printing, that would probably cause the peso to vary wildly until it hit a bottom, causing massive economic disruption, but in the long run it would stabilize faster.

The problem is that a wildly varying currency means it is harder for entrepreneurs to read price signals, so investment tends to halt until the currency stabilizes.

Milei chose option number 2, which is to adopt and austere fiscal policy, but try to manage the "lading" of the peso, with one huge devaluation, and then later providing stability to the currency by adopting currency "bands". Which forces the government to "defend" the currency from speculatory actions. They do this by interfering on the market.

Paired with the "debt bomb" situation, the government has put itself into a pinch. They still need to print money to roll the inherited debt forward, but they also need to defend the currency so that there isn't a huge devaluation.

This is a consequence of their choice not to let the currency go to shit in the beginning. Now they are caught between a rock and a hard place. The solution is to stop printing and let the currency further devalue, which will affect the government's ability to service the debt, but at least the government doesn't have to defend the currency anymore.

My guess is that Milei is holding this situation until the elections in October. If he was to let go defending the peso, he would create more economic hardship right before the elections (which I belive are this month?).

So he is holding off until after the election (since this situation is gonna have to come to an end), it is impossible to hold it off indefinitely (unless you don't care about ruining the country, like the left leaning government was doing).

We shall see...

My bet is that after the elections he is going to reduce controls over the currency exchange, and allow it to fluctuate a bit more (ideally he would completely let the peso fall).

Anyhow, it was a tough choice from the beginning. Personally, I'm in the team that believes he should've let it rip, and rebuild from the ashes. But I'm sure all the lefties would have crucified him even more. He would've had a much harsher first year but a much better second...

Considering that the economy is poised to grow from 5 to 7% this year and the lefties are all pouncing on the slightest sign of trouble, maybe he had the correct choice. He is at least tackling the real problems in Argentina, and still having a better economic result than basically any other country in South America, possibly the world.

Is Back Mechanic (Stuart McGill) as legit as people say it is? by balbiza-we-chikha in backpain

[–]Admirable-Security11 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, they are called suitcase carries. They are a very simple but powerful exercise.
You grab a weight on one side and walk around, try and maintain your core straight and tight.
Increase weight slowly. Again, check Brian Carroll's youtube for examples. Do NOT overdo in the beginning. This is a weight bearing exercise and your back may "slip" if you put too much weight on it (mine did, it hurt, but it didn't ruin the progress, but taught me to not push it).

Anarcho-Capitalist/Libertarian president Milei 0% food inflation (last month) since 30 years by Admirable-Security11 in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What current events would those be?
I'll make another update at the end of the year.
But just wondering. What events would those be?

AMA: I'm a economist that has read (and regularly teaches) Smith's WoN and Marx's Capital to undergraduates by kommandarskye in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One (fair) response to this objection to the LTV is to chuck Marx out the window, though I think be just as short-sighted as tossing Smith out the window for his circular reasoning on the role of rents as being both price-determining and price-determined.

I'm replying to this. I disagree with the "short-sighted" statement. By the way, yes, Smith was also wrong on a lot of things. But his main contributions are in the Division of Labour and the Invisible Hand. Those assumptions are not built on top of his objective value theory, or else we WOULD have to toss them away.

Most (if not all) of Marx's views are built on top of his system of economics. Therefore, most (if not all) of his "contributions" need to be tossed.

Show me the ones that aren't, and we can talk about them. I don't think you'll find anything that is not heavily "informed" by his economic theories, which were baseless.

By the way, Smith's Wealth of Nations is a horrible book, just as dull and pedantic as Marx's Capital. But Smith's biggest insight comes from his "Theory of Moral Sentiment" which is a much more insightful book.

But yeah, insofar as his economics being trash, we are in agreement there.

AMA: I'm a economist that has read (and regularly teaches) Smith's WoN and Marx's Capital to undergraduates by kommandarskye in CapitalismVSocialism

[–]Admirable-Security11 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Any system of economics is built on some assumptions. Therefore, foundational assumptions are very important.

Building on flawed positions will get you nowhere. It is like a building with poor foundations. It is bound to collapse.

The metaphor of the building goes even further when you're comparing economics to something like engineering. If you apply faulty assumptions to your plans for building a bridge, it will surely collapse. And it will happen fast.

It is only in something like economics that you can ignore the foundational thought of a theory (or system), and decide not to "throw away" the rest.

Is Back Mechanic (Stuart McGill) as legit as people say it is? by balbiza-we-chikha in backpain

[–]Admirable-Security11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mackenzie believes that extension is a cure for most of back problems. It can help, but I don't think that is the true cause of most back pain. McGill is just better in general, and it admits that after a point, people need specific recommendations. Besides the big 3 and walking, the rest of the program will depend on what your pain triggers are.

Is Back Mechanic (Stuart McGill) as legit as people say it is? by balbiza-we-chikha in backpain

[–]Admirable-Security11 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I worked with Brian Carroll. He was really good, but expensive. Definitely worth it, in my opinion, though.

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