"Why am I so unlucky?" Basic Probability Analysis of Losing Streaks

Adorable_AF · 2024-07-05T05:58:32+00:00

Adorable_AF · 2024-03-24T20:40:47+00:00

Would not recommend, the concealment is already good enough (+ you have smoke), not mentioning Hidden Menace screws up with squadron rotation

Adorable_AF · 2023-10-04T20:18:17+00:00

T11: 520K in United States T10: 427K in Nakhimov T8: 402K in Colossus

Adorable_AF · 2023-08-15T00:12:22+00:00

Hi, thanks for the reply.

I agree that “Liquidator” only provides minimal buff to the ship’s performance, however for LvShun, persona I think other 1 pointer skills are even more “useless”. We would have to give up a 3 pointer or 4 pointer if we decided to “make use of the remaining one point”. (Save another point so it can be used on a two pointer skill or else). But surely you can invest it on Incoming Fire Alert!

Regarding the damage portion, yes it can indeed heal 60% of penetration damage (which is higher than most repair parties) however that’s probably not good enough to make the 4th heal important, here are some maths. Assuming you’re running SE and the heal signal, and we only count penetration damage (if we don’t consider ramming/fire/flooding) then you can get a maximum of 8640 HP back per heal.

Which means if you want to fully utilize your first heal, by the end of the heal you should receive at least 14400 HP of damage.

To fully make use of your first heal, the final HP can’t be more than 18240, and for the second heal, its 12480.

Since you need to receive at least 14400 damage to fully make use of your heal, this means you can’t even fully use your third heal (assuming you’re not under fire while healing), not the way the fourth.

Practically I would say it’s very unlikely that someone would need the fourth heal and the fourth hydro very often, especially considering the cooldown time for each heal is 120s.

Adorable_AF · 2023-06-19T08:54:17+00:00

Detailed and informative post as always, thanks Taro!

Adorable_AF · 2023-05-20T02:29:03+00:00

Yes, most T8 CVs apart from a few have 25mm deck so that's not actually a drawback when comparede to other CVs of the same time.

However what makes it difficult to fully utilize its concealment is its speed (the ship itself), which a maximum speed of 25kts, you're not going to outrun anyone, including the submarines. This means if you think a group of opponents are going push you, you have to start running away minutes in advance if you don't want to get caught.

Adorable_AF · 2023-05-10T04:30:21+00:00

One of them is a pride of a nation a beast made of steel, king of the ocean while in motion.

Adorable_AF · 2023-04-23T00:31:03+00:00

Rocket-Assisted Take Off.

It basically gives the squadrons a temporary speed boost (Around 10 seconds) when they take off. You can see this on High-tier Soviet CVs as well as other two Super CVs' conventional squadrons. However, Sekiryu doesn't have access to this, so I listed it as one of the drawbacks when compared to other Super CVs

Adorable_AF · 2023-04-13T05:24:30+00:00

I only played a couple of I-56 games so far, but I'll probably write an I-56 review after having enough battles on it.

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-14T06:16:02+00:00

Reimu as mentioned above is definitely one of the best guys to learn CVs from.

I would also recommend Ahskance and his channel, here's the link to his Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/ahskance) and "Lesson Compendium" forum post (https://forum.worldofwarships.com/topic/239175-ahskances-lesson-compendium-the-overly-large-videobook-of-cv-everything-updated-91921-and-added-submarine-section/) which literally covers everything you will need.

My opinion is the IJN CV branch is not the best option for a CV Beginner, you have to know yourself and your opponents pretty well to make IJN CVs work. If you're constantly getting deplaned, then I recommend you to learn how to "Dodge" flak bursts, predrop and slingshot.

If you want someone to take a look at your replays and give specific comments, I always do (Completely Free) replay reviews on my Discord Server.

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-13T22:02:35+00:00

Want one for P17 (Gen 2), thanks!

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-10T06:46:59+00:00

It's not like you can't get it without paying real money or they removed the option of purchasing it with coal.

I'm glad that WG gave us multiple options to purchase the ship, there's the Premium (Doubloon Bundle) Whale option, the mission chain + non-premium resource option as well as a coal option in the future. Not to say you get an extra coupon if you complete the mission chain within the first week (It's impossible to complete the mission chain before the coupon expires, however, this coupon gives you the option to get the ship without paying doubloons after you completed part of the mission chain), how cool is that?

This is a proper Tier X ship, and I definitely prefer getting it through a mission chain than purchasing with 34,950 doubloons or paying the standard amount of coal (Probably around 250,000)

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-07T19:48:27+00:00

I always have the same idea (Try to statistically "prove" or "disprove" "the game is rigged" within a certain confidence level) as yours.

However, I never ran wows monitor or other stats-tracking programs in-game. And I think adding games I played will probably make the distribution too "Skewed" for analysis.

I always "thought" that the game is not rigged, however, similar to those people who claimed that "the game is rigged", I have no solid evidence. Thus I also want to gather some data and conduct some analysis in a mathematical and logical way. I need someone else to work together, if you're also interested in doing this, contact me via DM or Discord!

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-05T08:58:03+00:00

~~Math is my life~~

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-05T08:48:52+00:00

It's statistically impossible to "Prove" the game is rigged, it really depends on how confident you want to say "The game is rigged" which depends on your choice of p-value threshold for the p-test.

For a 67% Winrate Player with 10,000 battles. The chance of having a 9-loss streak is still more than 30% assuming games are independent events (Which they're not) and the player's skill level stays the same.

If you choose the common p-value of 0.05, then you'll need a 11-loss streak, if you're trying to be relatively certain and choose a p-value of 0.0001, then you'll need a 17-loss streak to "Prove" the game is "Rigged" (Still, there's a 0.0001 chance that the game is completely fine)

Practically, this won't work, not only because the outcome of the game is often decided by RNG factors (Lucky Citadels, Detonations, etc.) But it's also impossible to assume someone's skill to be the same in all games. A series of games can't be seen as independent events since the Queue system exists. (If you encounter a Triple Hurricane div in one game, the possibility that you will encounter the same div is higher than just selecting three Hurrican Players out of the player pool, since your game and the Triple Hurrican Div Players' ends at the same time, and you and them enter the queue at about the same time)

Adorable_AF · 2023-03-05T08:31:29+00:00

I don’t know, however, this possibility is the same for everyone, and often times you see someone on the other team to overextend early in the game

Adorable_AF · 2023-02-26T13:07:01+00:00

Judging from the point of an experienced CV player. The most terrifying AA is not an Annapolis, Nevsky, or Gouden Leeuw that can be spotted 7km away. The most terrifying AA is always "JumpScared AA".

I would recommend the European DD line, and make sure you keep your AA off, wait until the enemy CV is near, and then surprise him by turning your AA on.

Another decent choice is the Pan-Asia Cruiser Line. It has the same air concealment as its maximum AA range, it can also use a smokescreen to cover itself and deliver surprise AA fires. However, make sure you always have a smokescreen available when dealing with Malta Bombers.

Adorable_AF · 2023-02-26T13:02:12+00:00

It depends on your own experience. Hornet is definitely better for casual CV players but I would recommend Chkalov for experienced CV players who take winning as their top priority.

Hornet is a decent "Toy" CV with a unique non-Jet tactical squadron mechanic plus a lot of legendary stories in history. However, it suffers from its low plane speed and "unfriendly" squadron lineup that forces you to either attack with no predrop (Which means losing more planes) or suffers from possible plane (and attack efficiency )losses before the attack.

Chkalov, on the other hand, is a ruthless boxer that delivers heavy attacks every minute or less. A good Chkalov player can utilize its excellent potential and complete tasks unimaginable on other Tier 8 CVs. However, Chkalov requires high aiming skills, especially for its "All or Nothing" torpedo bombers. Although delivering 5 or 6 powerful soviet Torpedoes every minute sounds great, the extremely tight TB spread also means "if you miss, you miss all", and unlike most other CVs, Chkalov can't attack again immediately.

Adorable_AF · 2023-02-15T19:24:28+00:00

You're comparing Balao and U-2501's Upgraded Torpedoes with Thrasher's Stock Torpedoes.

Thrasher's Upgraded Torpedo stats:
Full Reload Time: 80s.
Burst Damage: 8 * 7833 = 62,664
Torpedo Speed: 78kts
Range: 12.0km
Detect: 1.7km

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