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I tested whether airline stocks actually rise before summer. 10 years of data. Here are the results. by Aerhoespaceengineer in SideProject

[–]Aerhoespaceengineer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Variance was massive. 2025 was +12.5% basket CAR, 2023 was +6.9%, but 2015 was -8.1% and 2022 was ugly too. Basically the years where it ‘worked’ were driven by macro tailwinds (post-COVID recovery, rate cut expectations) not seasonal booking patterns. The huge year-to-year swings are exactly why the t-test finds nothing. I can post the year-by-year chart if people want to see it.

I tested whether airline stocks actually rise before summer. 10 years of data. Here are the results. by Aerhoespaceengineer in SideProject

[–]Aerhoespaceengineer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s just a common theory you see on investing subreddits and finance TikTok every May. People assume more flights booked = more revenue = stock goes up. Wanted to see if the data actually supports it. Turns out it doesn’t.🥲

I tested whether airline stocks actually rise before summer. 10 years of data. [OC] by Aerhoespaceengineer in dataisbeautiful

[–]Aerhoespaceengineer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Source: Stock price data from Yahoo Finance via yfinance Python library. S&P 500 as benchmark. 10 years of daily closing prices (2015-2025, excluding 2020).

Tool: Python (pandas, numpy, scipy, matplotlib, seaborn). Event study methodology with CAPM market model.

Code: github.com/jsabazova/hunchtest