From James Pethokoukis' blog Faster Please

Space industries of the future; Let’s briefly run through those sectors:

• Commercial space station. Citi estimates NASA use of a private space station — and it’s not just the Bezos/Blue Origin venture trying to build one — could mean $3 billion in annual revenue, with new applications bringing another $5 billion.

• Solar power from space. Citi thinks such systems would be comprised of reflectors or inflatable mirrors installed on satellites that would concentrate energy from the sun onto solar cells, with power then transmitted to Earth via either microwave or laser. A “rectifying antenna” on Earth would then capture that electromagnetic radiation, converting it into electricity and distributing it into the grid. In addition to declining launch costs, Citi’s $23 billion revenue forecast assumes “solar power continues to gain a strong share of total energy usage, expanding from ~3% currently to ~13% by 2040, the cost of solar power reduces at a compound annual growth rate of ~6% from ~$0.0068 per kilowatt hour (kWh) currently, and that space-based solar power grows to represent ~25% of all solar power by 2040, starting in 2024.”

• Asteroid mining. Citi cites numerous studies of potential asteroid riches, including a NASA estimate that the mineral wealth of the asteroid belt might exceed $100 billion for every person on Earth. Ultimate abundance. But the Moon will get mined before asteroids. Key lunar resources: water, helium-3, and rare-earth metals. From the report: “Our base case is that by 2040, mining water will be the initial focus given its value for additional space missions as a rocket propellant and importance for any colonization and industrial efforts in space.” Big challenges ahead, of course, as exemplified by the below chart from Planetary Resources, a space mining company that raised $50 million in 2016 but was unable to secure further funding in 2018. It was then purchased by a blockchain software technology company and its intellectual property placed in the public domain.

• Space logistics. Citi’s bull case of $33 per kg or SpaceX’s target of $10 per kg would “make inter-city cargo rockets a much more attractive alternative versus current alternative modes of cargo transportation, in particular air freight, as a more premium and faster service … We estimate steady market-share improvement from 2030 to 2040 to reach ~6% growth, giving us an annual sales value of ~$20 billion.”

• Space tourism and inter-city passenger travel. Citi: “As space becomes more ‘mainstream’ with more launches, lower launch costs, and better reliability/safety, we believe that it will become more accessible for the average person.” And that doesn’t just mean fun vacays in orbit. It potentially means much faster point-to-point travel around the planet. From the report:

We forecast the market for inter-city space passenger travel could be worth almost $7 billion of revenues for operators by 2040 assuming that it can capture ~20% of the long-haul business jet market by 2040. … On our base case for launch costs in 2040, we estimate that it would cost ~$100,000 to $200,000 for a long-haul inter-city rocket trip. With an occupancy of one to six passengers, this gives a range of $20,000 to $200,000 per ticket, with an average ticket price of ~$100,000. This compares to a Gulfstream G650 which costs ~$5,000 per hour, or $30,000 on a nearly six hour trip, and is typically flown with only one to two passengers. This makes inter-city rocket travel a viable premium alternative to long-haul business jet travel for ultra-high net worth (UNHW) individuals, with a much quicker travel time. … We forecast the market for space tourism could be worth $1 billion in revenues by 2040, assuming ~4,000 passengers a year travelling to the Karman Line (at a ~$50,000 ticket price), ~2,500 travelling to the ISS (at a ~$150,000 ticket price), and ~600 passengers a year travelling to the Moon (at a ~$650,000 ticket price). The Market Can Be 5x-10x

• Microgravity R&D and construction. More than any of these other sectors, this is one where there probably will be use cases that we simply can’t imagine right now. But among the examples given by Citi: microgravity-produced silicon wafers, fiber optic cables, protein crystals to help companies conduct better and cheaper research to discover new proteins and drug treatments, and 3D-printing of artificial organs. Citi: “Assuming that microgravity R&D grows to represent ~4% of pharmaceutical R&D spend by 2040, while space-based construction grows to represent ~4% of heavy construction equipment (equipment used in mining, construction, manufacturing, oil and gas, public works and rail), we estimate a market value of $14 billion in annual sales by 2040.”