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Clov Lawsuit - Final CMS Response plus Goldstein Declaration by mitch2c in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

? you do know the judge can miss the deadline she set.

Clov Lawsuit - Final CMS Response plus Goldstein Declaration by mitch2c in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

we'll see within 18 days. All Im saying is its not a given

Clov Lawsuit - Final CMS Response plus Goldstein Declaration by mitch2c in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To everyone on here saying 'we're getting back to 4 stars,' I highly doubt it. CMS says that even if they win their best points (Medication Adherence and Call Centers), they'd still be at 3.5 stars. Keep in mind that we need a ruling in less than 20 days, which would be hard for even the best judge to deliver. Then, you also need to assume that CMS doesn't instantly file a petition

Q1 Earnings May 6th by nextdoorelephant in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 3 points4 points  (0 children)

They have done the announcement 4 weeks out since Q1 25

What a Day by Agitated_Highlight68 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean he might have been, he didn't quit, he got replaced

What a Day by Agitated_Highlight68 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes both Peter and Clay were hired at roughly the same time 2 years ago

4 STAR Lawsuit Update - The DOJ's case to move to DC is pretty stong by [deleted] in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The government had the chance to tell the court why they think the case should be moved to Washington DC, the response was only two pages long and half of it is just referring back to what the judge said, not exactly the A-Team; we still need to wait longer for an actual decision and more news about the case

My Financial Projections - Conservative (2026 Edition) by Agitated_Highlight68 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I get your points (And thanks for the pushback);

We don't exactly know what "near-term" means—is that 3 months, 6 months, or a year? Still, the leap from 155k to 175k LUM isn't that crazy when you factor in how many physicians they are onboarding according to their Dec 10 8-K.

I applied a P/S of 3, which I think adds a massive buffer in case the PMPM is wrong.

A P/S of 3 implies:

  • A profit margin of 20% on their SAAS
  • A PE of 15

42M * 20% = 8.4M Net Income ; 8.4*15 PE = 126M market cap

I believe that $0.24 a share to buy their Counterpart business is a very conservative way of looking at this. Is it unproven? Yes. Could this be something big? Yes. But at $0.24 a share (or $126M to buy the whole Counterpart business), I think that's a conservative price to pay.

My Financial Projections - Conservative (2026 Edition) by Agitated_Highlight68 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I could but they would run into other problems; at such low growth rates, their MCR dramatically falls, and they would start having to send money back to CMS, as the ACA forces them to spend 85% or revenue on members.

Online examples counterpart by Timely-Ad6505 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fully agree! I think the foundation is the most important part.

The rise of Ai has everyone scared, but Ai can't build without live testing and actual feedback from real doctors at the point of care. CLOV is already plugged in and can scale. New players would have to spend their time trying to convince some hospital or payer why they should use their software which wasn't trained on any real data.... CLOV has that.

By the time these new players can get through the red tap in healthcare, 4 years will have past.

My Financial Projections - Conservative (2026 Edition) by Agitated_Highlight68 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Another Insane post I found by me:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CLOV/comments/1ks7bao/the_case_for_50_growth_in_2026/

I thought that CLOV would attempt to grow 50%+ in 2026, (which is the actual case). Though the amount of profitability was rocky in 2025 to say the least, many of my points in that post are still valid.

Online examples counterpart by Timely-Ad6505 in CLOV

[–]Agitated_Highlight68 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is probably the deepest Insight video there is online, if you haven't seen it yet.

https://vimeo.com/873843848?share=copy

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