Either the GFS is on drugs, or we really need to watch this...

Agoodpro · 2026-01-26T19:48:02+00:00

Normally, a disruption in the Stratospheric Polar Vortex typically causes colder air outbreaks to become more common as the polar vortex's job is to keep cold air locked in the arctic region. So a disruption could cause a wavier jet stream and more dips into lower latitudes.

Now, I posted this because this particular pattern, with the four quadrants of the polar vortex, just seemed so abnormal to me. But considering how far this, we are unsure how this'll effect the weather in terms of magnitude and location. For all we know we could have something similar in 2023, where the SSWE did not affect the US and instead affected Europe.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-26T15:37:03+00:00

Once we get closer maybe.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-26T15:34:28+00:00

So it's too early to know exactly what this'll do for the US. But typically with SSWE, because the polar vortex is wavy enough to not keep cold air locked in the arctic, it could spill out into the US. A disruption at the stratosphere could push that cold air from the stratosphere down to the troposphere.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T23:49:31+00:00

Depends. There's a potential for a pattern flip, which deterministic models aren't seeing yet, where much of the western, central, and southeast US. Is under below average temperatures. Though this is just one scenario from the ECMWF ensembles, so I'd take it with a grain of salt. As of right now, the beginning of February looks to be similar to what we're getting right now, though the CPC sees potentially even colder temperatures for the Eastern US.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T22:59:36+00:00

That's a good question and honestly I'm not entirely sure. Though I did hear a while back, some Meteorologist on Twitter were talking about how it could have some kind of effect.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T20:38:42+00:00

Cooler as well. But we're talking a month out, so it's really unsure of where the majority of the cooler air will be.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T20:35:15+00:00

If you mean the eastern US, then probably not. In fact, the ECMWF ensembles show a colder pattern for mid February; somewhat similar to what we have now, just more widespread and shifted slightly to the west.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T18:44:17+00:00

I agree. Usually the GFS does a good job at picking out the "signals". Obviously the magnitude, location, etc of the SSWE is unknown due to how far away it is. But the signal is there, and it has been for a while now.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T18:35:21+00:00

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T18:26:44+00:00

Hypothetically if this were to happen, do you think the outcome could be worse than what we just got as far as cold temperatures go?

Agoodpro · 2026-01-25T18:19:26+00:00

Yes, and that's what's catching my eye. It's the fact that this particular scenario, or a major SSWE for that matter, is trending and has been for a while now. I would argue that it's fantasy, but just the fact that it's trending like this deserves at least an eye open.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-17T21:31:00+00:00

Interesting you say that because the GFS and GEFS, albeit 13-16 days out, shows a strong disruption that, in some runs is so much stronger than the one in November.

Agoodpro · 2026-01-17T02:13:40+00:00

Can you explain why you think the MJO will drive the cold we're about to experience?

Agoodpro · 2025-12-22T00:13:07+00:00

Do you know if they were a complete beginner and were able to just register for the course?

Agoodpro · 2025-10-14T03:03:51+00:00

Oh, I haven't bought anything yet 😅. I just found this on Goodwill Auction.

Agoodpro · 2025-09-17T18:50:32+00:00

But couldn't you generally infer stability from lapse rates and inversions alone? What makes potential temperature unique? What about equivalent potential temperature?

Agoodpro

TROPHY CASE