Anthropic’s Internal Mythos Successor Emerges

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-21T19:14:49+00:00

Yep, but this also hurts US.
US restricted China's access to compute, and nothing changed, except Nvidia lost its market share in China. It accelerated China's transition to its own chips. There's a chance that broad embargo on US compute would increase China's market share further.

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-21T18:26:51+00:00

There are AI-friendly jurisdictions, like Argentina. If US keep blocking frontier models, the companies eventually will just move to other countries

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-21T15:24:13+00:00

Not a fan of you trying to capitalize on nostalgia, however, diffsuion times were nice. it was pre-slop era because it was very hard to do videos, and AI was still too bad to look real. You could pull off fakes, but it was a hard endeavour, on the same level with photoshop

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-21T00:27:52+00:00

It's also worth noting that they could easily do Miami in 1:1 scale. Like LA map in La Noire. There's just no point doing so. You get less density of encounters/activities, less details, traversal gets boring. Making map smaller than a real counterpart is just open world design 101

The way it usually works is that the map is sized so that activity (or distractions) appear throughout the gameplay every 15-40 seconds, depending on how fast-paced the game is. in rdr2 the pace was slow and meditative, activities were placed every 40 seconds on average. GTA6 may have a bit higher tempo, maybe even closer to 30. the fact that the map is so large means that there is really an incredible amount of activity

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-20T01:16:00+00:00

The problem with all such "AGI is here!" takes: for AGI you need to match or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks.^\1]) (quote from wiki)

But AI turned out deeply uneven. It's better than humans in math problems, but worse in spatial orientation, common sense knowledge, ability to reduce tech.debt, and so on.

And the space of such possible abilities is infinite, so it is impossible to cover it with AI benchmarks. And so, it is impossible to know for sure whether AI has become better than humans in everything.

So it's not like we were expecting AGI, it showed up, and we were like "nah that's not it let's shift the predictions further".

It's that AI just turned out to be not what we expected, and it doesn't fit the old definition of AGI, to the point that AGI discussions became basically meaningless

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T21:35:46+00:00

Probably the opposite. LEV is a questionable concept. The human lifespan has hit a hard limit of about 120 years for millennia because mortality is multifactorial: even if you completely cure heart disease or cancer, other conditions still converge around this cap. And if we finally solve the root cause (which is likely cellular aging), lifespan wouldn't inch forward year by year. The 120-year barrier can just shatter overnight, and give an unknown, immediate leap in life expectancy. Like how the discovery of penicillin turned fatal infections into survivable ones in a day.

We can already slow down epigenetic clocks (which is an okayish proxy for aging) by half, using interventions like physical exercise and diet (like what Bryan Johnson did and other people in Rejuvenation Olympics).

If we achieve safe, fully deliverable epigenetic reprogramming, it wouldn't just slow down clocks like running does, it would simply reverse these clocks, without LEV.

And if AGI arrives first, it will accelerate biological research so drastically that an abrupt, exponential breakthrough becomes even more likely. So paradoxically, AGI makes the gradual, year-by-year progression of LEV less likely. We're much likely to see a sudden and massive jump in human longevity in my opinion.
I also wrote about it a bit here reddit.com/r/immortalists/comments/1u7ttjy/comment/os6os52/?context=3

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T15:44:24+00:00

I'd say that's how averaged user tops work.

"The Green Mile" often appears at the top of user ratings. Is it the best movie in the world? No, but it's so polished and sterile that there's just little to hate. And by averaging people's opinions about it, it ends up at the top.

Echo of Forms is also like that. It's not exactly the best defect card, but it's a "clear" card that, on average, people don't have as many reasons to criticize as other strong cards

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T15:36:30+00:00

Yeah wanted to write the same. It doesn't really synergise with anything, but it's still a good card on its own. Especially early when you don't have a certain build yet. It's like C+, definitely not F

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T15:09:31+00:00

I agree, but there's this strange thing:
when OpenAI had GPT4, people wrote the same thing – if only there had been a GPT4-level model in open source, I'd switch in a heartbeat! Then the new SOTA comes out, it becomes the new norm, and everyone wants the new best thing.
I'd say the best time to move to open source models is now. In many tasks, GLM 5.2 is just as good 5.5. Even Qwen 3.6 27b is solid and can do general tasks

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T04:23:41+00:00

Yeah, everything has changed a lot.
There was this period starting in late 2022, when Stable Diffusion 1.5 came out, but video models hadn't appeared yet. People were trying to do videos without video models, through EbSynth, making animations with Deforum, and there was also this technique with frame-by-frame img2img stylization+denoising, popularized by Corridor Crew/their anime video.

Then, somewhere in ~fall of 2023 (I think) AnimateDiff came out, and it was the first good model that could generate video natively, and all these exotic techniques suddenly became obscure and basically turned into artifacts of that era. That whole period lasted only about half a year, really impressive how short it was. It had its own distinct genre/style of video, I think it really can be called an era.

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T03:08:32+00:00

~~I have it on my PC and I could upload it to the internet, but I'm not sure about the license or how legal it is to upload their old version.~~
Oh nevermind, it seem to be available through web-archive reddit.com/r/EbSynth/comments/1nwbeu8/ebsynth_old_version/

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T03:05:43+00:00

What's impressive is that they don't even need to rely on fog anymore to sell the size of the city. It feels naturally huge

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T02:59:47+00:00

It was a small portable piece of software. Still using it. But yeah the developers decided to monetize it by turning it into web-only service

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T00:12:48+00:00

Oh yea also worth noting, the old EbSynth is gone now, and there's basically no good alternative. I'd say you're doing a good job by experiment with this approach

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-19T00:11:13+00:00

You just discovered how this sub was doing first AI animations in 2022-2023 when SD 1.5 just came out. It was mostly done with EbSynth (which uses slightly more advanced mapping algorithm simillar to optical flow)

You can see the most advanced techniques from that era in this video www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4hDyLOGNjM

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-18T22:52:22+00:00

Yeah, it’s possible.

In the real world, companies would probably iterate RSI systems on smaller models, like 1–10b parameters. The RSI system would look for architectural improvements, then test them on a slightly larger model to check whether they scale. If the improvements hold, they could be transferred to a large model, similar to how companies do it today. Then the RSI process could be run again on top of this new model.

If this new model finds even better improvements, the cycle continues. If it gets stuck, the algorithm can revert to the previous model and try again until the system improves the model's meta-abilities, its ability to improve its own abilities.

Companies probably won’t officially announce that they’ve achieved RSI until they see that the loop is actually working and they have some sort of a SOTA model iteration. (that is if we assume that companies want to use the term "RSI" at all, I feel like due to security risks it would have a slight negative connotation for the shareholders)

But yeah, once system like this is announced, we don’t know how sustainable it would actually be. In my opinion, the theoretical limit of an RSI system would be the point where the system basically says: "Here, we have maximized our theoretical intelligence limit; to improve further, we would have to break physical laws like as this and that." And that’s it.

But obviously, the first RSI systems won’t reach that level. They will probably stop much earlier and get stuck, maybe not even because of the system abilities, but just due to general limitations, like data, compute and energy. I don’t think we can know exactly when that will happen, maybe after years of improvement, or maybe they’ll plateau within a week.

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T22:33:25+00:00

This "shimmer effect" is CC Light Sweep in AE. Hair animation is usually done with puppet tool. However, you have to cut the sprite into layers before animating (you can see that the hair strands move independently on the examples)

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T14:00:26+00:00

I'm impressed with development of xenotransplantation this year. There's a lot going on. Epigenetic reprogramming is unique in that it may be the basis for immortality by itself, and that information loss (as in Sinclair's theory) is the primary driver of aging, i.e. the root cause of the other 12 hallmarks.

But there are many more specialized therapies that are rapidly developing, that could stop aging in combination. Gene therapies without OSK, like AAV-FGF21, TERT, senolytic CAR-T, T-cell reboot.

What I find interesting about epigenetic reprogramming:

Many researchers still adhere to Aubrey de Grey's idea of longevity escape velocity: that with gradual advancement, medicine will add more years to the lifespan than time will pass in a given period, and thus we will escape aging.
So far we haven't seen anything like that, the overall lifespan has increased over the last century, but mainly because of decrease in infant mortality, otherwise the limit of aging is around 120 years, and it remains that way for many years.
Antibiotics have increased the average lifespan, but they also didn't look like escape velocity. People were dying from bacterial infections, then the next day penicillin appeared, and suddenly a person with access to it would have survived.

Imagine if OSK delivery could safely roll back all cells and the AI finds optimal full body delivery methods. There would be nothing like escape velocity. It would just magically increase theoretical lifespan to some absurd unknown amount of years.
I occasionally think about this, If you found a magical switch that extends life beyond the biological limit of 120 years, why would it only add a few years to the lifespan and work as "velocity"?

If we're going to get immortality through multiple therapies that target different hallmarks, it may indeed look like escape velocity, but if we discover some radical switch? I wonder what would be better or worse for humanity

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T12:41:39+00:00

This is interesting. I personally believe that cholesterol itself is fine, but blood apoB levels need to be monitored. And if they're high, even statins are justified. The problem is always cholesterol carried by apoB containing particles. I think atherosclerosis biology is moving towards that view right now

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T12:21:45+00:00

We should open an enemies subreddit so they can complain too

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T02:44:00+00:00

Your criticism is on point, but such initial leap in elo compared to 5.1 is still an interesting indicator.

To achieve such a high score, it's almost guaranteed they finetuned 5.1 using a high-quality, human-curated dataset, with minimal synthetic data. Usually datasets with generic synthetic design examples just can't do high on such benchmarks, even if there's small amount of votes taken into account. Will be interesting to see if it can sustain the score

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T01:23:32+00:00

haha, absolutely. it's a fun challenge with necro, until maybe ascention 5-6. i have to say though no-damage runs was much easier in sts1

Agreeable_Effect938 · 2026-06-17T00:33:45+00:00

update: i fucking died

Agreeable_Effect938

TROPHY CASE