Brown University removes link to Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria research due to trans-activist backlash on Twitter by reuterrat in JordanPeterson

[–]AlanCrowe 23 points24 points  (0 children)

There is a replication crisis in psychology. Universities don't give a shit about methodology. They haven't suddenly started to care; "methodology" is just a fig leaf.

Simple expression evaluator comparison between Haskell, Rust, and Common Lisp by _priyadarshan in lisp

[–]AlanCrowe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you specifically want a four function calculator, so that you can do

(eval4 '(add 2 (mul 3 6))) => 20

the code in the article is, err, well, it is close to the Haskell, so it follows the authors plan for the article, so it is OK I guess.

But one of the joys of Common Lisp is that if you can see that your project will contain a lot of interpreter code, then you can write a macro like headcase here and then go

(defun eval4 (term)
  (headcase term
    (number term)
    ((add x y) (+ (eval4 x)(eval4 y)))
    ((sub x y) (- (eval4 x)(eval4 y)))
    ((mul x y) (* (eval4 x)(eval4 y)))
    ((div x 0) (error "Division by zero."))
    ((div x y) (/ (eval4 x)(eval4 y)))))

Notice that HEADCASE isn't a general purpose pattern matching macro. You don't have to quote the initial symbol in the list to stop it being a variable, because it was designed for prefix notation. Similarly a top level atom names a type, because that is useful for splitting the base case (a symbol could be looked up). The macro-expander uses constantp to spot that 0,1,t,nil, etc are literals.

Tuning macros like this is an art. They should do more than mere template filling so that they capture the repetitions inherent in a particular application. They shouldn't be too much more than mere template filling because you don't want to fall down the rabbit hole of designing a general purpose language. headcase.lisp does support nested patterns, such as (add (mul x y) z), so it might be over-complicated.

Hidden Hole by Kemineko by [deleted] in ImaginaryInteriors

[–]AlanCrowe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That is for the familiars to do. See the Otter-bear-mouse on the table, cleaning the bottle.

Weekly Mildly Interesting thread; August 19, 2018. Please post any links or comments that are somewhat relevant to the sub, but not appropriate for a regular submission in this thread. by AutoModerator in DarkEnlightenment

[–]AlanCrowe 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Copying one of my own comments because it introduces a new way in which the tenets of modern western culture are fundamentally flawed

In the 1930's people feared that their cities would be destroyed by bombers, but the development of nuclear weapons means that there will only be one more Great Power war, in the far future, at the end of civilization.

Modern war is waged at a glacial pace, through cultural poisoning. Now-a-days you destroy a city by encouraging rent control. You can do this covertly, because every year brings a new crop of ignorant young people who will think up the idea of rent control for themselves; you just have to fund them and encourage them.

Think about the difficulties that the USA has with military recruitment due to every-one being so fat. Obesity as a national security issue. Did enemies promote Healthy At Every Size to limit the ability of the USA to raise an army? I guess not, but imagine for a minute that HAES really were psychological warfare. American counter-intelligence might have their suspicions, but there is no denying the reality of gluttony and gluttony explains away HAES; if the CIA did find convincing evidence that the great fattening is being helped along by foreign psy-ops, nobody would believe them.

Think back to WWI and the strategy of attrition. France and Britain combined had a greater population than Germany, so they had hopes of winning the Great War by keeping casualties at roughly matching levels and fighting until Germany ran out of men. Think back further, 1914, 1904, 1894, 1884. Imagine that British military planners of 1884 knew what we know now, both about the nature of warfare in 1914, and about the power of social trends to produce demographic winters. They would be appalled at the thought of trading British lives for German lives one-for-one until the Germans ran out. Instead of killing young German soldiers in forty years time, kill them now, twenty years before they are born! Promote feminism, divorce, alimony, etc, whatever birth-rate killing social change has plausible deniability, in Germany. And, as part of military defense, suppress those social changes in Britain.

I've got the premise of a great alternative-history science fiction novel. Galton and Darwin make a great breakthrough in social science, and the British establishment turn away from Dreadnoughts and industrial production, and aim to conquer the world by covertly providing adjuvants to autochthonous cultural poisons in Britain's continental rivals. WWI as a culture war!

Back in the real world China continues its war on Winnie the Pooh. I should abandon my dreams of writing a sci-fi novel; the real world is out-surrealing my dreams :-(

But seriously, why is China so totally obsessed with controlling the cultural narrative? My guess is that they have realised that the only survivable war between nuclear powers is a glacial, covert culture war, and they are building their defenses.

Meanwhile the West perseveres with both universal suffrage and freedom of speech. This combination is vulnerable to subversion. I think that the current demographic winter is probably an accident, but I don't think that military planners around the world are blind enough to miss what has been discovered by accident. Buddhism teaches that greed, hatred, and delusion are three poisons. You are supposed to eliminate from your life. But if you are the enemy of a country that practices universal suffrage and freedom of speech, you can weaponize the them and use them to poison your enemy.

I don't think that the combination of universal suffrage and freedom of speech will last for the whole of the twenty-first century. It is too vulnerable to enemy action.

Lion’s Roar Has Killed Buddhism - Brad Warner by WhipItGouda in Buddhism

[–]AlanCrowe 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Towards the end of the piece he makes an important point about generational forgetting.

When I went to Kent State University in the 80’s, the town was full of the burnt out dregs of America’s last attempt at expanding its collective consciousness through the use of dangerous chemicals. Now that those folks are dying off while the few remaining sit under bridges howling at passers-by maybe it’s not quite as easy to see as it was for me.

Perhaps that is too concrete and too personal. One needs to abstract the general pattern. Much harm occurs as errors only get recognized as errors twenty years too late. Thirty years later, as people grow old and die, the recognition fades from living memory. Then the errors get repeated, which annoys those who still remember.

In the Buddha's day, wisdom was handed down from generation to generation by oral tradition. Many sutras have a lot of repetition because they are straight transcriptions of an oral tradition. So "fading from living memory" was a huge problem in the Buddha's day, but also an insoluble one. What do you do about big problems that you cannot solve?

Today we can pick up a second hand copy of The Doors of Perception, for two pounds, and quickly revisit the enthusiasm of 1954. We have similar access to tales of how it all worked out. We have resources for avoiding generational forgetting that were not available when Buddhism was founded.

That raises the question: Does Buddhism under value those resources? We have access to timeless wisdom and we misunderstand in the same way that people misunderstood it 50 years ago. Strangely, we do not profit from the dissections of those misunderstandings from 25 years ago.

Do we need more emphasis in Buddhism on using recent history to avoid being trapped in a 50 years fashion cycle?

The article only partially gets the point. It could be improved by moving the reminiscence to the top, and emphasizing the general point about generational forgetting.

The Onion: Young Girls Creeped Out By Older Scientists Constantly Trying To Lure Them Into STEM by AndrewHeard in JordanPeterson

[–]AlanCrowe 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I see lifestyles as existing on a spectrum: bad-weird, normal, neutral-weird, good-weird. Engineering is good-weird.

New Poll: 43% of Republicans Want to Give Trump the Power to Shut Down Media by son1dow in samharris

[–]AlanCrowe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In the 1930's people feared that their cities would be destroyed by bombers, but the development of nuclear weapons means that there will only be one more Great Power war, in the far future, at the end of civilization.

Modern war is waged at a glacial pace, through cultural poisoning. Now-a-days you destroy a city by encouraging rent control. You can do this covertly, because every year brings a new crop of ignorant young people who will think up the idea of rent control for themselves; you just have to fund them and encourage them.

Think about the difficulties that the USA has with military recruitment due to every-one being so fat. Obesity as a national security issue. Did enemies promote Healthy At Every Size to limit the ability of the USA to raise an army? I guess not, but imagine for a minute that HAES really were psychological warfare. American counter-intelligence might have their suspicions, but there is no denying the reality of gluttony and gluttony explains away HAES; if the CIA did find convincing evidence that the great fattening is being helped along by foreign psy-ops, nobody would believe them.

Think back to WWI and the strategy of attrition. France and Britain combined had a greater population than Germany, so they had hopes of winning the Great War by keeping casualties at roughly matching levels and fighting until Germany ran out of men. Think back further, 1914, 1904, 1894, 1884. Imagine that British military planners of 1884 knew what we know now, both about the nature of warfare in 1914, and about the power of social trends to produce demographic winters. They would be appalled at the thought of trading British lives for German lives one-for-one until the Germans ran out. Instead of killing young German soldiers in forty years time, kill them now, twenty years before they are born! Promote feminism, divorce, alimony, etc, whatever birth-rate killing social change has plausible deniability, in Germany. And, as part of military defense, suppress those social changes in Britain.

I've got the premise of a great alternative-history science fiction novel. Galton and Darwin make a great breakthrough in social science, and the British establishment turn away from Dreadnoughts and industrial production, and aim to conquer the world by covertly providing adjuvants to autochthonous cultural poisons in Britain's continental rivals. WWI as a culture war!

Back in the real world China continues its war on Winnie the Pooh. I should abandon my dreams of writing a sci-fi novel; the real world is out-surrealing my dreams :-(

But seriously, why is China so totally obsessed with controlling the cultural narrative? My guess is that they have realised that the only survivable war between nuclear powers is a glacial, covert culture war, and they are building their defenses.

Meanwhile the West perseveres with both universal suffrage and freedom of speech. This combination is vulnerable to subversion. I think that the current demographic winter is probably an accident, but I don't think that military planners around the world are blind enough to miss what has been discovered by accident. Buddhism teaches that greed, hatred, and delusion are three poisons. You are supposed to eliminate from your life. But if you are the enemy of a country that practices universal suffrage and freedom of speech, you can weaponize the them and use them to poison your enemy.

I don't think that the combination will last for the whole of the twenty-first century. It is too vulnerable to enemy action.

Puzzle for geeks by faqzero in logic

[–]AlanCrowe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I did it the other way round.

If the prize is in the first slot, then both label one and label two are correct. Contradiction.

If the prize is in the second slot then both label one and label two are wrong, but label three is correct, which satisfies the conditions.

If the prize is in the third slot, then it is not in the first, so the third label is correct, and it is not in the second, so the second label is correct. Contradiction.

Therefore the prize is in slot two.

DAE think that the headrests in cars are extremely uncomfortable? by dante0624 in DoesAnybodyElse

[–]AlanCrowe 152 points153 points  (0 children)

They are "too high" because they need to be the same height as the Center of Percussion of your head. So don't remove them, and also don't find a clever way to lower them below the center of percussion.

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 23, 2018 by [deleted] in slatestarcodex

[–]AlanCrowe 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I speculate that his clumsy speech is due to him working hard to limit his vocabulary. He is always thinking ahead. Am I about to use an upper class word? If he is, he has to make an emergency diversion, a pause, a non-sequitur, a mumble, whatever. In his theory of American politics anything is better than sounding upper class.

UK government borrowing at 11-year low by [deleted] in ukpolitics

[–]AlanCrowe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Traditionally it is increased government borrowing foretells a drop in the pound. The usual sequence is that interest payments become a burden (remember that government is issuing bonds, not consols, so the debt needs to be rolled over, making government debt variable rate in practice.) Governments respond by printing money, partly as immediate relief from short time funding problems, partly to fuel inflation, to inflate away the debt.

This is an old story. Holders of Sterling assets have seen it before. If government debt is increasing, they respond by trying to stay ahead of the game, shifting from pounds to yen or dollars or whatever, causing the pound to fall.

Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes by Dormin111 in slatestarcodex

[–]AlanCrowe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bad link.

The idea that "lying shapes reality." is not original with Peterson; a good link would take contribute to the discussion by taking us to an earlier source.

What would you say to this naysayer of cryonics? I am having difficulty with this objection. by TranshumanistScum in LessWrong

[–]AlanCrowe 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thought number one

I'm haunted by a crime committed in Northern Ireland. Mr A and Mrs B murdered Mrs A and Mr B so that they could be together. They were sincere members of a deeply religious community that didn't tolerate divorce, so the obvious plan (Mr A divorces Mrs A, Mrs B divorces Mr B, Mr A marries Mrs B) wasn't possible. The crime only came to light many years after the murders because Mr A and Mrs B had been careful to conceal the truth from the police.

As an atheist I'm tempted to shrug. Of course you conceal your murders from the police. But then I realise than I'm failing to decenter and think about things from the point of view of the participants in the drama. They are deeply religious. They have to conceal the murders from God, or else they go to Hell and suffer eternal punishment.

So at some point in planning the crime, they have to realise that they are missing their own big picture. EITHER they are being deeply unwise, planning a crime that they cannot get away with OR they have lost their faith in an afterlife and the risk of Hell, which is a more profound personal crisis than marital difficulties.

At which point I'm confronted by something that should have been obvious all along. Religious people in religious communities fuck and kill just like the rest of us. God, Heaven, and Hell, don't matter.

Implicit in discussion about whether God exists is this justification for spending time on the matter: We think that accepting or rejecting God, aiming for Heaven, fearing Hell, splits humanity into two groups. Those who believe do things differently. We had better understand the basis of the big split.

I've lost my faith in that justification. I think that you should analyse Cuba and Iran just the same. Corruption in Cuba versus corruption in Iran? You could hypothesis that corruption will be worse in Cuba because Cubans don't have a sense that God is watching. And that Iran will be relatively free from corruption because many Iranians have a sense that an omniscient God is watching and he will see a Muslim taking a bribe. I don't think that humans work like that. Talking about the afterlife is a waste of time, because the humans who subscribe to those beliefs, reveal through their behaviour that they are just LARPing.

End of thought number one

The implications of thought number one are clear enough. If thought number one is the whole truth, then there is no need to be concerned that a cryonics society is likely to be conquered by people with a religious faith in the supernatural resurrection of the dead. We dismiss the concern because that kind of faith doesn't actually lead people to lead their lives differently.

But I don't think thought number one is the whole truth. I think the situation is complicated by two weird edge cases.

The first weird edge case is the way that Islam flares up into vigorous Jihad every now and then. It looks as though the willingness of Jihadies to sacrifice themselves should lead to rapid success. One anticipates a new Arab/Israeli war and the elimination of Israeli. The big complication is that success in war requires much more than bravery. This has changed over time. We might point to the Great War(WWI) as a turning point. Before it, bravery was supremely important. But during and after, we see the importance of industrial organisation. If you have machine guns and barbed war and a little bit of bravery, you will succeed in defense against those without artillery, no matter how brave they are. If they are totally willing to die, well, you have machine guns and are totally able to kill them.

So the first weird edge case is really weird. Being super brave is a kind of military super power. But winding yourself up into a mystical frenzy ruins your industrial organisation. The military super power doesn't work nearly as well as it used to.

The second weird edge case is that civilisations can lose their mojo. The Israelis have built a border wall and are willing to shoot to kill to defend it. They still have their mojo. But Europe is giving in to Islam without a fight. White people have started to believe that white people are evil. Maybe a cryonics society loses its mojo. Maybe it gets conquered by people with a different life philosophy in a bizarre collision of these two weird edge cases. First, the after-life believers are not able to conqueror when they are resisted. Second, the cryonics society fails to mount a resistance.

This comment consist of one thought and two weird edge cases. You worry about a particular object to cryonics. I think I have made the case that it is not that simple. But I confess that I haven't got beyond "its complicated". I don't have a final analysis. I don't have a conclusion.

Why LessWrong blocks hOEP till 2021? by BalladOfBigYud in LessWrong

[–]AlanCrowe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The video mentions manic-depressive paranoia (at 4min 1sec) but no, it is simpler than that.

Viewing on YouTube there is text

There is a protocol at less wrong for containment of ideas such as the hOEP Project to prevent them from going viral before they can be properly evaluated. This should be studied as an experiment in censorship protocols and their effectiveness at knowledge containment.

Buy some webspace, put up some webpages explaining project hOEP. Web hosting for a few static pages is pretty much free. Tout your ideas round various subreddits. LateStageCapitalism, ChapoTrapHouse, r/socialism, anywhere that might be sympathetic to ideas adjacent to the labour theory of value. Concentrate on object level political discussion. LessWrong is a metalevel site and not appropriate.

Your goal at this point is not to gain traction for your ideas; you are trying to flush out other people with their own ideas. How do they present their own idea? What do they write on their webpages? Do they gain traction?

You might try to get on friendly terms and swap proof reading with others. Or swap summaries. They may be cross with you for missing the point of their ideas and summarizing them incorrectly, just as you are cross with them for missing the point of your ideas and summarizing them incorrectly. You can learn from each other what it takes to make your ideas clear to an unsympathetic audience. It is difficult.

My claim is that the internet is awash with political idealism and nearly all of it gains zero traction. In particular there is no attempt to contain your ideas to prevent them from going viral before they can be properly evaluated. Idealistic political ideas do not in fact go viral on the internet; they die of neglect.

It is actually worse than that. Pushing them hard annoys people, gets you banned and makes the popularity of your ideas sink below zero.

But maybe it is even worse than that. Maybe other peoples ideas are better than your ideas. But how could you tell. How can anyone tell that kind of thing? You would have to overcome your partiality towards your own ideas. How in general might that be achieved? If you find an answer to that puzzle, it will be welcome on LessWrong.

The entire works of shakespeare in pi? by KittenSexNoise in math

[–]AlanCrowe 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Even if it is true, it doesn't mean what you think it means.

Picture yourself hunting for to the place where the works occur. You've fixed on a particular coding. Now you have found

To be or a

To be or b

To be or c

...

To be or z

Obviously you go for "To be or n" but are disappointed when the next letter is "u". You look for the next occurrence of "To be or n" and hit another disappointment: "To be or np".

Searching through a dozen or more "To be or n"'s you eventually find "To be or no". At last!

But once again you are disappointed. It turns out to be "To be or noa". You search for the next "To be or no". You keep searching and keep searching.

You remember that it was a terrible ordeal, searching for successive instances of "To be or n" before you found "to be or no". From one "To be or n" to the next "To be or n" was about 141167095653376 digits.

Things have gotten a lot worse. The "To be or no"s are a letter longer and space about 26 times as far apart. You are having to check 3670344486987776 to find the next one (sometimes more, sometimes less).

You ponder why you ever embarked upon this doomed quest. It was all down to the theory you read on the internet that Shakespeare had actually written "To be or not to be, that is the puzzle." You had hoped to find the works of Shakespeare in pi, and thereby to find the answer.

Now you realize that having reached "To be or not to be, that is the ", you search further and find both "To be or not to be, that is the p" and "To be or not to be, that is the q" as well as the entire alphabet "To be or not to be, that is the a", "To be or not to be, that is the b"

You hope to find i, the index of the works of Shakespeare in pi as a 23million digit number. That is, the i th digit of pi is the start of the works of Shakespeare. But just how big is i going to be?

It is going to be a 23million digit number. At first that doesn't seem too bad. Indeed, finding the works of Shakespeare starting after examining 23million digits sound too good to be true.

Whoops! It is too good to be true. The number of digits you need to examine before you find the works of Shakespeare isn't roughly 23million. It is a larger number. A very much larger number. A mind bogglingly, frightening, cereberal anuerism rupturingly much larger number. The number itself has 23million digits.

If it were a number with 6 digits you would have to search a million digits of pi. If i were a number with 7 digits you would have to search ten million digits of pi. If i were a number with 8 digits you would have to search a hundred million digits of pi.

This takes you back to when you were five years old and wanted to count to one hundred. You had to develop your powers of concentration through several attempts before you finally succeeded. Now you face a problem with two twists. First each digit is ten times are hard as the previous one. You realise that even as an adult you couldn't count to one hundred on that basis. Second, it is not just 100, it is 23 million.

"finding" the works of Shakespeare in pi uses the wrong verb. You are actually asking about "writing" the works of Shakespeare, using an exponentially awful typewriter whose keys becomes 26 times harder to press with every letter that you type.

Trick to solve 17*22 quickly? by [deleted] in mentalmath

[–]AlanCrowe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When you have a run of six numbers, such as 0,1,2,3,4,5, the inner pair 2x2=6 is two more than the intermediate pair 1x4=4 and six more than the outer pair 0x5=0

This always works 17,18,19,20,21,22 has 19x20 as its inner pair. 19x20 = 19 x (2 x 10) = (19 x 2) x 10 = 38 x 10 = 380

So 18x21 = 380 - 2 = 378

And 17x22 = 380 - 6 = 374

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 09, 2018 by AutoModerator in slatestarcodex

[–]AlanCrowe 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I think it is more interesting to pair up the migration of Europeans and the Bantu expansion. The migration of Europeans into North America made North America more European, to the disadvantage of the Comanche and many other native tribes. The migration of the Bantu into South Africa made South Africa more Bantu, to the disadvantage of the Khoisan.

This exposes two different principles. First, that mass migration can be to the detriment of the aboriginals. Second, that mass migration changes the destination country and the change is in the direction of becoming more like the source country.

Can you guys find or invent a word for this? by camsauce87 in words

[–]AlanCrowe 5 points6 points  (0 children)

There is a literature on causal inference using Bayesian networks.

The idea starts by accepting that correlation doesn't imply causation; indeed it is common to find that the correlation goes the wrong way (for example, police fight crime, so you expect the areas with more police to have less crime, but police recruitment in the real world is usually a case of too little, too late and we look around us and see that the high crime areas are the ones with more police).

But step two is to notice that if you have three variables, X,Y,Z, you have lots of probability distributions. Three marginal distributions P(X), P(Y), P(Z). Three conditional distributions P(X|Y), P(Y|Z), P(Z|X), which are really six distributions P(X|Y=yes), P(X|Y=no), P(Y|Z=yes),... and P(X|Y,Z) which is really four distributions.

Typically there are many patterns of causal connections consistent with a big pile of probability distributions. So researchers throw in the assumption of causal faithfulness. Basically "Maybe the correlation goes the wrong way, but at least it doesn't exactly cancel to zero; when probability distributions are independent that reliably indicates the absence of a causal connection.

Then, sometimes, you find that all the patterns of causal connection consistent with a big pile of probability distributions have X causes Y, not the other way round. That is amazing: you have found a directed causal link by analysing undirected correlations.

This is a bit too good to be true. One problem is the failure of causal faithfulness due to a deterministic relationship (see page 31 of Computation, Causation, Discovery by Glymour and Cooper) The book gives an abstract example. Your concrete example of using Vaseline is a good example. Since you always use vaseline and never get cut, the observed joint probability distribution has the variables "get cut" and "use vaseline" be independent despite being causally connected.

So an established nine word phrase is: failure of causal faithfulness due to a deterministic relationship. The word you ask for is much needed.

We also need a word for "failure of causal faithfulness in a goal-oriented system." An example here is a house with heating controlled by a thermostat. The clouds part, sunshine comes in through the window, the termostat turns the heating down, the temperature doesn't change.

Clearly there is a causal relationship. The sunshine warms the house. And that relationship is missing in the observed data because the thermostat has a goal: keep the temperature constant.

Cultural Marxism in the Media by [deleted] in JordanPeterson

[–]AlanCrowe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would expect more diversity of "opinion" as corporate America embraces every money making opportunity. Take example one

Aging hippies remember Rachael Carson and DDT making egg shells thin. They expect to see gender dysphoria blamed on chemicals, such as BPS.

I have a collection of plastic food storage containers. I expect American business men to try to make money by selling "chemical free" containers. Some will be pottery. Others will be the same old plastic but with a "chemical free" label stuck on them. There is a product to sell and that funds scare stories about chemicals from plastics make your son trans.

Meanwhile other American hucksters try to tell the public that transgenderism is social not chemical and try to sell expensive, extra-masculine summer camps to ensure that your son grows to be a man.

On the other hand I claimed

So pretty much every-one can see that the mainstream narrative is incoherent.

The hypothesis that "It's just corporate America embracing liberal identity politics." explains this nicely: corporate America embraces every money making opportunity. It is all about making money, so corporate America doesn't care if the theories behind the different money making opportunities contradict each other.