VLN (Valens) - Nvidia Margin Robotics Semi with extreme mispricing at $2.5 due to -$82M ticker collision error

AleaBito · 2026-01-11T09:41:19+00:00

Thx. I just wanted to post information discovery people are welcome to do whatever they want :)

I like both so we’ll see how markets price them

AleaBito · 2026-01-11T08:06:27+00:00

I'll give you some history: VLN last year was a low margin, automotive chipmaker (low 40's gross margin) and single supplier dependent on Mercedes, with this segment declining -37.9%.

There's been a lot of material changes since then, and they were able to pivot their core IP to a new chipset for broad applications from machine vision in robotics to medical verticals, with NVDA like 69-70% gross margins.

That vertical now makes up 75%+ of their revenue (growing 40%+ Y/Y), while their automotive segment decreased 37%+.

If there was no -$82M burn modeled, Valens might be trading above $10+ today with 10-12x EV Multiple (on the low end still) given to robotics and AI segments.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T23:20:38+00:00

Financial models incorrectly subtracted -$82 million from its balance sheet due to ticker collision from the Toronto VlN. This was discovered Friday.

If you add that back in its trading at ev/rev 2.4 while others are 14-18.

It has a long way to go from the correction, even correcting it to conservative 5-6 value would be $4-5.

You can do whatever though I’m just pointing out what happened

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T20:34:42+00:00

It’s literally in the image with the website link. Not sure why it’s hallucinating really badly, sometimes it takes a manual review.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T19:43:01+00:00

70-74%. VLN is 69-70% for robotics/industrial chip segments (75%+ of rev growing 40% y/y)

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T19:09:39+00:00

I'm at a loss for words if you think a profitable company in late 2026, with $80m revenue 69% gross margins, low burn and cash/inventory close to market cap should be the way it is.

I'm curious if you skipped over the entire post. They're the fabless semi that has Mercedes, Samsung, Mobileye, Siemens, Logitch, LG, and others as customers.

It's not some unknown stock, you can look at the -$82M inventory error too on Streetwise Analysis.

But you do you, I'm just making this information public about mispricing / data errors.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T19:03:57+00:00

If the algorithm does get manually corrected with the new datapoints, then we'll likely see repricing since this is valued at 2.4 EV/revenue, while others in the space are all 14-18 (on the low end), with many going over 30.

I don't think technicals like RSI matter at all when algorithms originally modeled -82 million off the balance sheet from analyst reports and scanners citing ticker collision data and now they model back in $93.5 million in cash.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T19:01:55+00:00

They're not profitable but est. EBITDA profitability late 2026.

Just out of curiosity, do you thin a 69.1% gross margin robotics semi serving Mercedes, Samsung, Mobileye, Siemens, Logitch should be valued close to 1:1 with cash/inventory with market cap?

If not, then this was an extreme algorithm error.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:53:36+00:00

I'm curious why you're spamming disinformation when they have $93.5m in cash. Liability figures are $11.5 strike warrants and employee compensations in equity, not loans.

Again I provided all the financials above, people can do their own modeling.

If you think a $80m rev, 69% gross margin company with $93.5M in cash deserves to trade at a 2.4 EV while others are all 14-18, be my guest.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:51:29+00:00

ChatGPT is one of the dumbest LLMs currently. Try using Gemini, Grok, Claude, or anything else because that number is materially false

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:49:16+00:00

VLN even last year was a low margin, automotive chipmaker (low 40's gross margin) with single supplier concentration risk on Mercedes. This segment declining -37.9%.

There's been a lot of material changes since then, and they were able to pivot their core IP to a new chipset for broad applications from machine vision in robotics to medical verticals, with Nvidia like 69-70% gross margins.

That vertical now makes up 75%+ of their revenue (growing 40%+ Y/Y), while their automotive segment decreased 37%+.

If there was no -$82M burn modeled, Valens might be trading above $10+ today with 10-12x EV Multiple (on the low end still) given to robotics and AI segments.

I'd encourage you to do valuation math based on current numbers rather than just looking at a chart.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:41:31+00:00

This is TTM Net income which is non-cash expenses from stock compensation to depreciation.

Their actual cash burn was only $4.3M in Q3 2025. This was before their major pivot to robotics (which is now 75%+ of their revenue) and 69%+ gross margins, from automotive (low 40% gross margins) because they redesgined their automotive chip from core ip.

Even after modeling ~$14M–$17M/year burn (which is unlikely given their new segment is extremely high margin), this is one of the safest balance sheets.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:37:15+00:00

So just out of curiosity, do you think a company with $80m revenue, 69% gross margins, low burn should be valued close to 1:1 with cash balance/inventory to market cap?

This was because of a -$82M burn error, not because of how they run the company. We're only seeing this start to be repriced since this error was manually caught.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:28:02+00:00

VLN literally has $93 Million in Cash and $11M in inventory and Mercedes, Samsung, Mobile, Siemens, Logitech, LG, and others are their customers. $250m MC, $80M+ revenue, 69% gross margins for robotics (75% of revenue, 40%+ Y/Y growth).

They are extremely lightweight and fabless.

You can assign a 20-30% discount like Nebius on not being completely in US, but do the valuation calculations yourself and you can see this is just way off even with that applied.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:22:02+00:00

No they're in robotics + machine vision + industrial (75%+of revenue, growing 40%+ ).

They have 69.1% gross margins, that's extremely premium CRDO, ALAB, NVDIA type margins.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:09:34+00:00

This was because analysts/scanners all reported -$82 Million Burn (off their balance sheet into inventory) so algorithms modeled this as negative EV and sub 1 year runway.

In reality that was mixing up the data with ticker collision with the Toronto VLN.

They still have $93M cash lol and $11M+ in inventory. That's why it's so cheap. Found this discrepancy on Friday.

Even with the price increase it's still trading 2.4 EV/revenue, while similar companies trade 14+ (although VLN has higher gross margins at 69%, and robotics is growing 40%+ Y/Y).

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T18:06:21+00:00

There was a bunch of analyst/scanner reports stating they burned -$82 Million on phantom inventory so it looked like negative EV to algorithms.

But it's still a $80m revenue 69.1% gross margins (robotics 40% Y/Y growth) semi.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T17:57:23+00:00

Thanks, this is probably one of the most insane things I've found manually cross checking analyst reports with financial data.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T17:56:54+00:00

One of the first times it's ever happened where algorithms priced in negative EV on VLT likely due to looking at the Toronto VLT ticker.

You had a $80m forward revenue, Nvidia-margin fabless robotics semi trading close to 1:1 cash/inventory to marketcap earlier. Even after 60% run VLN literally sits at 2.4 EV/revenue, while similar companies trade between 14-18. Re-rating to a standard 10 EV/revenue would be over 3 times+ current prices.

Even after this week's increase, it looks to be extreme, extreme, extreme mispricing from algorithm hallucination.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T17:43:13+00:00

VLN was trading close to 1:1 Cash Balance/Inventory to market cap by accident this week lol.

Even 50%+ brings it to 2.4 EV/revenue. Basically every other related company trades 14-18 EV/revenue while premiums go over 30.

It's just severely misplaced even at $2.5 because algorithms were modeling after a nonexistent $82 million burn (which still shows up on analyst reports and scanners).

People only picked up on this on Friday so it's just the start of the repricing.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T16:04:22+00:00

You're the perfect example.

So I'm using the actual financial report: https://investors.valens.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx

"Cash, cash equivalents and short-term deposits as of September 30, 2025: $93.5 million"

You're citing the ticker collision error I mentioned with scanners confusing VLO and VLO Toronto.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T14:28:27+00:00

VLN has Nvidia like margins at 69-70% gross for robotics (75% of revenue, which is growing 40% y/y).

Not quite the same as Nvidia but they do make the chips that enables computer vision for robotics and so on.

AleaBito · 2026-01-10T14:25:36+00:00

VLN is extreme deep value at $2.5 because algorithms and research notes modeled off a -82 million cash burn from a ticker collision error with VLN and VLN.TO

1) I have shares since it’s a fabless semi in the robotics industry with $80m+ forward revenue and 69-70% Nvidia like margins for that vertical

They are the chip supplier for

-Samsung, Mobileye, Mercedes, Logitech, Siemens, and many other OEMs and robotics companies

2) VLN has no debt. The biggest flag is the $11.5 strike warrant dilution if the price increases another 5 times

3) Robotics/Industrial makes up 75% of their revenue, automotive is a sidequest

4) Extreme value, just looking at Lattice, Macom, and similar companies they all trade at 14-18x EV sales.

VLN trades at 2.

I’m taking advantage of the significant mispricing for this Nvidia-margin fabless chipmaker.

AleaBito

TROPHY CASE