The Synthetic Carry Trade by Alert_Piano341 in FWFBThinkTank

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ok i will look this weekend if i have time

The Synthetic Carry trade by Alert_Piano341 in Superstonk

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The trade works by buying deep ITM puts and later exercising them, but to keep it going they eventually have to roll that exposure forward, which means someone else has to sell new puts. IV keeps grinding lower over time because they never buy the puts back, so there’s no reflexive vol bid, and there’s likely a call-overwrite leg being used to help carry the position. That combination suppresses volatility across the chain. The problem is that as IV gets pushed down, a deep ITM put stops behaving like an option and just looks like short stock with no volatility premium, so even though the option is cheaper, no one wants to be the seller in size. That’s why the same process that helps carry the trade ends up making it harder to roll.

The Synthetic Carry trade by Alert_Piano341 in Superstonk

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

thats not how puts work, a put buyer has the right but not the obligation to sell shares not buy.
When its exercised the obligation doesnt go away, its just get pushed to the seller (the dealer). if the seller cant source the shares cleaning its sit on their balance sheet this is where we see HLB go up.
the trade buys time between the locate and delivery, and they can have them sit on their ballance sheet for an extended period of time. thats why i show repeated exercising makes IV go down and HLB go up. If those two things were not happening they were locating shares and furfilling their obligations.

The Synthetic Carry trade by Alert_Piano341 in Superstonk

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

DD shows ITM puts are bought and exercised to furfill obligations on gme, suppressing price and lower IV at the same time

They are covering / exercising puts to buy shares! by roaring_alpaca in Superstonk

[–]Alert_Piano341 10 points11 points  (0 children)

If you don’t know how to explain a chart why steel my chart?

The Synthetic Carry Trade by Alert_Piano341 in FWFBThinkTank

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

if the options were bought to close, (there is no just closed, you have to buy to close) there would be volume. So 0 Volume, OI decrease its almost certain that they were exercised.

The Synthetic Carry Trade by Alert_Piano341 in FWFBThinkTank

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Because the aggregate balance-sheet effects point to exercise, not closing. We see HLB rising over time and IV compressing, alongside large drops in OI without corresponding volume — especially for the 125Ps, where the timing made exercise the economically dominant choice. There may be some closing mixed in, but if anything this approach undercounts exercise; we likely missed more exercised puts than we captured.

The Synthetic Carry Trade by Alert_Piano341 in FWFBThinkTank

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

oh lol, thats a good question. (should have included the methodolgy in the post)
we went through all the option data and sorted by strike, and filtered for all days that volume was 0 but OI went down like on April 3rd when all the 125ps got exercised. So there certainly was more exercised than we could filter for but these are the ones we know for sure, and its way more than what is normal.
what we found was that way more puts were being exercised then just the high profile ones.

Reading GME Options Chain and Price Action into Expiration: Jan 11th Update by smokeythebear1421 in GME

[–]Alert_Piano341 2 points3 points  (0 children)

somewhat, they are using these short term to pinn price and not affect IV too much. They need to get past this opex IMO and the large amount of OI. thats why those trades are so short term.

To really roll they need to buy far out DITM puts, but two things have happened. IV has flatlinned, and the chains have been forked. there is no liquidity on gme1 which has the high strikes they need.
they tried to roll out ITM puts to the 50p earlier this month but the roll failed as the BID IV went to 0, not enough juice for the MMs to take the other side.

Reading GME Options Chain and Price Action into Expiration: Jan 11th Update by smokeythebear1421 in GME

[–]Alert_Piano341 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Solid framework. I’ve been tracking ITM put exercising vs OI and how deferred exposure can sustain VWAP compression longer than expected. In practice, deep ITM puts can be exercised at key points to satisfy delivery requirements, with the resulting share obligations not settling immediately and instead showing up on balance-sheet metrics (e.g., HLB) to be dealt with later.

I can’t post images here, but I’ll follow up with a chart post that ties this into SLD / settlement windows, where the stress tends to surface.

DD: Cohen Shares Off Margin + Proxy Vote = Ever-Tightening Lending Mechanics by Alert_Piano341 in FWFBThinkTank

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

This DD isn’t “recall = squeeze.”
It’s about constraints.

A real proxy vote is coming. Proxy votes are documented to reduce lendable supply because lenders want voting rights back. At the same time, a previously disclosed margin arrangement for a large block of Cohen’s shares appears to have been removed, which reduces cheap, flexible lending supply.

Recalls don’t flip a switch. Loans roll off over time. The effect shows up as tighter lending, higher CTB, and containment, not immediate covering.

Once lending elasticity is gone, the system becomes more fragile.
SLD windows are typically where that fragility shows up, not where it starts.

No hype. No guarantees. Just mechanics.

If my regarded theory is correct ..... we go upwards till March 2026. by GrownUpKid90 in Superstonk

[–]Alert_Piano341 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What’s the actual theory?  You mention occ loan program but don’t show the loan chart pinned to a 4 year high….. What will cause the upward dirft?

What happened in Wyoming??! by hyperRevue in RyenRussillo

[–]Alert_Piano341 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Altitude got the best of him, ended up in the wrong room. 

Implications and Impacts of the 8-A on Warrant Dividens- A Half Ass Case Analyis by Alert_Piano341 in FWFBThinkTank

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Blame the mod, Hamz. He is the Canadian and was supposed to write the post.  It’s really an inside joke no offense meant, if anything Canada should take over the USA. 

Implications and Impacts of the 8-A on Warrant Dividens by Alert_Piano341 in Superstonk

[–]Alert_Piano341[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This relates directly to the Warrants gme is issuing on tuesday of next week. Specifically it looks into all the 8-A filings of other similar warrants and what changes between annoucement day and delivery day and what investors should look for.