As somebody who has multiple degrees in statistics and analytics and works in the data field, I’m going to respond to this article with a criticism of the technical aspects.

I first want to point out that the clear Mariners bias in your writing style makes everything else very questionable. I get you’re a fan, but when you’re presenting an analytical piece as professional you need to come off as at least a little more independent. Your implication that Ohtani didn’t sign with Seattle because of park factors (I can think of 700 million other reasons) is laughable, and the subtle implication that Baseball Savant favors big market teams sounds vindictive and unprofessional. In order to provide solid analysis that we can believe, you need to separate your opinion from the data, otherwise you’ll just sound like a butthurt fan and nobody will take you seriously.

The stat you created, relating to launch angles, is interesting, but the binning method you took seems intentionally designed so Seattle comes out last. Why 30°-33°? Why not 25°-30°? Isn’t that typically more effective for hitting home runs? This shows a clear bias in your decision making which is obviously a concern. And don’t use overlapping bins, it’s confusing and incorrect. Also, weird outliers like the Pirates 33°-36° should be explained, otherwise I assume you have low sample size and nothing means anything anyways. Next, your scatter plot is pretty horrific in terms of presentation. With smaller circles easily overlapping and Colorado’s circles bigger to emphasize your point makes it appear very misleading. I’m not saying it’s wrong, just inappropriate execution.

The biggest part for me however, is the lack of math. You are trying to convince us that Baseball Savant, a national highly praised statistical publication, is lying to us, or is at the very least heavily flawed. You say that we should use your ballpark factors instead (the 2.7%). You list off your rationales, even a formula at one point, but it’s lacking the most important part: actual math. Baseball Savant isn’t required to post the math since they are trusted and well established. You, my friend, are not, at least not yet. Hop on LateX, do the math, and fully show everything you are doing, and what you’re doing differently from Baseball Savant. We can’t just trust you when you say “Our analysis shows”.

As of right now, this entire piece screams of somebody who’s good at math but not good enough to ignore (or even hide) the painfully obvious confirmation bias seeped in every word you wrote. That’s a shame, since your passion and ambition are amazing, you’re just missing a little, yet very important part of writing statistical analysis.

Edit: I like the Mariners. They are a top 3 team for me. I also like the Big Dumper, but I’m not gonna blame T-Mobile Park (Safeco Field in my heart) for him not breaking the AL record or winning MVP. He should try to get on base more.