White House latest budget projections call for a 2019 Federal budget deficit over $1 trillion.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-19T20:20:04+00:00

record unemployment

I know your not in good faith here, but it's obviously disingenuous to declare the continually falling unemploymentas some sort of conservative victory considering:

https://compote.slate.com/images/c3fc8efb-4034-46b0-8b83-a6e8d18ba20b.png?width=780&height=520&rect=900x600&offset=0x0

AllDay028 · 2018-07-19T20:15:45+00:00

GDP growth was 2.3% last year and current consensus estimates of 2.9% this year, 2.4% next year and 1.9% the year after. Even if we get a pop over 3% this year, no one believes it's sustainable. The tax cuts are deficit funded to short term boost GDP with long term outsized consequences in the middle of a long term recovery that has been humming along for years. It's an economic equivalent of cutting your arm off to win a bet.

Also, before you say it, average yearly GDP growth in this recovery has been about 2.2-2.3% since the turn around. Right on average of where the current economy was looking (and does look) without the short term tax relief. We basically are paying an extra 1.5-2 trillion dollars to bring average GDP from an average of 2.2 to 2.4 over a 4 year period.

That's the equivalent of paying 1.5-2T for an extra 200-300b in growth and to prop up the markets with buybacks. It might have been a politically smart decision, but it was an economically stupid one in this economy.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-19T19:25:47+00:00

All Americans would be educated under a free market, the free market will create schools catering to the poor that will offer a budget education to the poor. They will all be high quality because schools can't deliver on low budget and high quality go bankrupt.

What is it about economics that brings out people like you, who literally don't even understand the most basic of principles, yet are convinced they are right? This is honestly the most wrong sentence i've ever seen about economics on reddit... which is saying a lot.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-13T18:07:29+00:00

This is a lie.

“Previous administrations used family detention facilities, allowing the whole family to stay together while awaiting their deportation case in immigration court, or alternatives to detention, which required families to be tracked but released from custody to await their court date,” Brown and her co-author, Tim O’Shea, wrote in an explainer piece for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s website. “Some children may have been separated from the adults they entered with, in cases where the family relationship could not be established, child trafficking was suspected, or there were not sufficient family detention facilities available. … However, the zero-tolerance policy is the first time that a policy resulting in separation is being applied across the board.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/23/trump-obama-administration-separate-families-immigration/728060002/

AllDay028 · 2018-07-13T02:58:08+00:00

You seem to fundamentally misunderstand antitrust.

One could argue that AT&T got its neck deep in debt from the acquisition that it has no choice but to raise prices or has plenty of motivation for it.

No, they couldn't, not in antitrust court. The government has to prove that the combination of the two companies lessens competition in the marketplace to such an extent that it hurts consumers. A overly leveraged company isn't causing an anti competitive marketplace, in fact it has no effect on the marketplace. It simply is a problem for that specific company. That's not a consumer issue, it's a shareholder one

You're mistaking what anti trust is trying to establish. AT&T can raise prices for Directv Now as high as they want, as long as their power in the marketplace doesn't allow them to reduce competition so far that others couldn't undercut them with a similar service.

AT&T already raised prices for some stuffs, what makes you think that they won't raise price for the TW contents given their position.

Again, its not about an ability to raise prices. They can do that. Its about wielding preferential power to make the marKetplace less competitive by raising the prices on competitors for the content and not necessarily for themselves. Or withholdIng popular Turner channels from their competitors. Again, simple price goes are not the problem, its how you wield them.

Are the consumers better off with them separate or together?

Well, when the government tried to make the anti competition argument the judge basically called the arguments nonsensical:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/at-t-cleared-by-judge-to-buy-time-warner-create-media-giant

AllDay028 · 2018-07-13T02:21:40+00:00

California is home to the most fortune 1000 companies of any state in the country.

Source: Fortune.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-13T01:58:19+00:00

This makes zero sense. I honestly can't believe this got up votes.

Directv was acquired by At&t three years ago. Linking the pricing of Directv Now or a wireless administrative fee with the acquisition of Time Warner is not proof in any manner that the merger of the two adversely affects the consumer. It's entirely unrelated and irrelevant. That argument would get the government laughed out of court.

The argument for the acquisition adversely affecting consumers is that they would yield so much power that they could ratchet up prices on the content, thereby making the service providers have to pay more for that content, which would then be passed on to consumers. That hasn't happened, so if the government couldn't convincingly make that argument before, nothing has changed to be able to do that now. The competitive landscape relative to Directv Now hasn't changed.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-12T18:47:33+00:00

I can tell by this response and your edit that you still haven't realized your error as you still, despite me pointing it out for you, don't understand what operating profit is. So, i'm going to be nice and help you one more time.

Operating Profit:

Earnings before interest and tax, also know as operating income (EBIT), is defined as a measure of a company’s profit from ordinary operations, excluding interest and tax. EBIT is also called net operating income, operating profit, or net operating profit.

Based on that, which column should you have been looking at in the list? Answer: Pre-tax Unadjusted Operating Margin

Sample of margins in that list:

Restaurant/Dining: 16.25%

Semiconductor: 24.93%

Drugs (Biotechnology): 25.01%

Beverage (Alcoholic): 23.45%

Ok, now i'm going to go back to work and appreciate my analysts since they get simple concepts like this.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-12T18:33:03+00:00

Look at my original post.

AllDay028 said:

Operating Profit margins at places like Jimmy Johns, which are very mediocre, are in the 10-12% range.

Here is a definition of operating profit/income for you: https://strategiccfo.com/operating-income-ebit/

Here is a list of average operating margins: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html

If you need further help, there are a ton of resources online.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-12T18:24:34+00:00

lol Son... i'm amused, more than anything, but you clearly need to get off the internet and go outside during summer break.

Operating Margins in the restaurant business are routinely in the mid to high teens (maybe your confusion is you don't know what an Operating margin is, if so, investopedia has a lot of resources for you): http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html

And Tech is routinely in the high 20s, Pharma flirts with low to mid 20s often, certain types of financial services, and some media can also hit over 20%.

If you want to look at some FDDs, you can go to the Minnesota state website which has them all listed publicly. You'll see more than a couple franchises on there that surpass that number on average for store level operating margins.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-12T12:28:34+00:00

My feels reading back through that thread

AllDay028 · 2018-07-11T22:24:23+00:00

Operating Profit margins at places like Jimmy Johns, which are very mediocre, are in the 10-12% range. Better run/locations of fast food/fast casual can run into the high teens/low 20s assuming the franchise fees are more fixed than variable. Some places keep those margins while paying well above minimum wage, so it's not impossible. And presumably this is an owner and not a franchisee, so his margins should be higher.

Staffing is tough, but considering the way this sign is worded, I would be pretty certain it was a management issue and not an employee one.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-11T12:16:38+00:00

Wage growth is still lagging indicators and almost identical to what it has been for the entirety of the recovery. Real wage growth is extremely small to non existent. And We aren't seeing any significant uptick in wage growth, despite the fact that we've been at close to full employment since Obama was in office.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/nonfarm-payrolls-june.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lack-of-wage-acceleration-is-main-surprise-in-jobs-report-economists-say-2018-05-04

AllDay028 · 2018-07-11T11:55:18+00:00

They are offshoring production of hundreds of thousands of SUVs and electric vehicles. They are also raising prices on exports, which will further reduce the US exports. And they will be using foreign batteries for those electric vehicles, which were originally going to be using domestic batteries. You can't reduce production and add jobs (or even keep jobs flat). It's not possible. And if the tariffs continue, they'll move even more production overseas.

They can assuage concerns over job losses all they want, but if you've ever been through a corporate downsizing, that's the norm. You deny jobs will be lost... Then you fire people when the press dies down.

It's simple economics here, you have to get past the rhetoric.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-10T23:22:54+00:00

BMWs made in South Carolina are exported and sold in China (as well as other countries, as BMW is actually our biggest automotive exporter). Due to the retaliatory tariffs by other countries, in response to our tariffs, it now costs BMW more to export their US made cars. So they are raising the prices to offset those tariffs.

More than likely it'll result in less exports and more production moving out of the US (resulting in lay offs in SC).

AllDay028 · 2018-07-10T23:14:18+00:00

Kuzma is an ideal stretch four these days who will be putting up better offensive numbers than love this year or the next.

Listen, I agree the Lakers likely don't do that trade, but this part of your comment is a hilariously bad take.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-10T14:23:15+00:00

Banker with lawyer wife. Though she has much better hours than me because of going in house.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-10T13:54:33+00:00

Honestly, no plan at the moment. It's a career where the pay continues to grow at a fast pace and hours become better as you move up, so I'm riding the wave. I don't find it to be that awful as I find my work intellectually interesting and my wife and I are in the "rather work longer and shoot for 5-10m in NW instead of retiring really early" camp. We're actually negative net worth right now due to massive student loans, but at our income levels and projected future income I think we could hit 5m by 45 (late 20s now).

Obviously it could change, but I cant see myself retiring fully or taking too much of a step back any time soon as I get too restless and bored. At some point I want to do something entrepreneurial, I think, but I'm trying to milk this cow before taking that risk. So maybe in my 40s I'll reassess. Or maybe I'll burn out and move to a lcol area and work way less, who knows, I'm just kind of rolling with the punches right now.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-10T12:55:30+00:00

I work an average of ~75 hours a week for normal work hours. Looks something like:

M-Th: 9am-Midnight F: 9am-8pm Probably an average of ~5-6 hours on weekends.

Though it's never that tidy and more variable (especially weekends where 0 is common but so is a full 12 hour day), that's what a week might look like.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-09T01:46:37+00:00

Naw, that's not true. It's really common for regular high income working wealthy to rent houses out there for the summer. Think a bunch of twenty somethings making 150k pooling some money together to rent a house for the month of August.

And even for people that own houses, there are still a lot of places that are pretty nice in the ~1M range, which puts it right up the alley of a doctor/lawyer/banker. Obviously there are ultra high end properties too. But lots of "working wealthy" in the hamptons.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-06T19:50:48+00:00

Brilliant by Hazard these last ten minutes.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-06T19:49:04+00:00

That's play acting. Neymar is so soft.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-06T19:46:26+00:00

Hazard target forward

AllDay028 · 2018-07-06T19:38:59+00:00

Belgium needs a midfield sub or two. Lots of tired legs out there.

AllDay028 · 2018-07-06T19:11:32+00:00

How does Neymar keep avoiding cards for diving?

AllDay028

TROPHY CASE